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Energy Efficient Transport in 2020: Key Policy, Technology & Research Drivers   Paul Wuebben, Clean Fuels Officer South Coast Air Quality Management District Southern California Smart Grid  Research Symposium Davidson Conference Center  UNIVERSITY  of SOUTHERN  CALIFORNIA October 6, 2009 +
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
1 st :  Why are we interested in a Smart Grid? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Convergence of  Air Quality,  Climate & Energy Security ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Airborne Cancer Risk  Including Diesel :  Ubiquitous + Petroleum Use Driven South Coast Air Basin
U.S. Oil Market Dynamics
The Energy Challenge:
source:  IPCC Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Unprecedented Growth Rates = Unprecedented Problems
Source:  James Hansen, 2008 Fossil Fuel Use: Largest Atmospheric Experiment in History
GHG BAU Impacts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Warmer Days Lead To Both Higher Emissions + More Ozone Source: Air Resources Board, 2000 Ozone (ppm) Temperature ( o F) Los Angeles Ozone Levels (1995-1998 ) California Ozone Standard Source:  California Environmental Protection Agency
ENSO – El Nino Southern Oscillation (3 – 8 yr. cycle) Climate Implications of High Carbon Fuel Use:
Teleconnections and Feedbacks Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Tibetan Albedo  Change? ENSO Triggering Indian Monsoon Transformation Bodele Dust Supply Change? Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump
Teleconnections and Feedbacks Atlantic Deep Water Formation Instability   of   West   Antarctic Ice Sheet? Southern Ocean Upwelling   / Circumpolar   Deep   Water   Formation Instability of Methane Clathrates Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? ENSO Triggering Bodele Dust Supply Change? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Tibetan Albedo  Change? Indian Monsoon Transformation
Runaway Greenhouse Dynamics? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Indian Monsoon Transformation Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Bodele Dust Supply Change? Tibetan Albedo  Change? Atlantic Deep Water Formation Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Tibetan Albedo  Change? Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Bodele Dust Supply Change? Atlantic Deep Water Formation ENSO Triggering Southern Ocean Upwelling   / Circumpolar   Deep   Water   Formation Instability   of   West   Antarctic Ice Sheet? Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? ENSO Triggering Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? Instability   of   West   Antarctic Ice Sheet? Southern Ocean Upwelling   / Circumpolar   Deep   Water   Formation Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions
GHG Emissions: Transportation Sources Dominate in CA
Current Policy Initiatives Intersecting EVs and Electricity Use ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
California’s RPS:  Most Aggressive in the Country Source:  Black and Veatch
GHG Emissions (MMTCO2eq) AB32 Transportation Sector  Carbon Reduction Strategies Plug-in Hybrids + Battery Electric Vehicles contribute to these “wedges”
Low Carbon Fuel Standard ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*  CARB ISOR values, March 5, 2009
WTW GHG Emissions –  gCO2e/MJ Adjustments reflect EER + iLUC assumptions Source: CARB Jan., 2009 Corn Ethanol with iLUC  adjusted from 74.3 104.3 * CA-RFG 95.6  CARBOB 96.9 ULSD 94.5 CNG from N.A. gas  adjusted from 68.0 75.6 * Corn Ethanol 74.3 G-H2 via LH2 transport, NA NG  adjusted from 142.2 61.8 * G- H2 - onsite reform., NA NG  adjusted from 98.3 42.7 * Electricity - CA mix  adjusted from 124.1 41.4 * Gaseous H2 - onsite gen. NA LFG  adjusted from 76.1 33.1 Biodiesel - Soybeans 26.9 Sugar Cane Ethanol  adjusted from 26.6 72.6 Cellulosic Ethanol - Farmed Trees 5.38
Electricity Carbon Intensity
12
 
BEVs and P-HEVs Market Outlook ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
AQMD Plug-in Hybrid Fleet ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],15
GM Volt 230
Chrysler GEM
 
35 to 45 B Gals of Cellulosic Ethanol or Renewable Methanol Breakthroughs 30%
2 x Fuel Economy Increase with Aggressive Hybrid  Drivetrains 40 – 50 mpg CAFE 35 to 45 B Gals of Cellulosic Ethanol or Biomass Methanol Breakthrouoghs 30% 30%
Diversion to Renewable Electricity  with  Plug-in Technology  Σ= 90% 2 x Fuel Economy Increase with Aggressive Hybrid  Drivetrains 40 – 50 mpg CAFE 35 to 45 B Gals of Cellulosic Ethanol or Biomass Methanol Breakthrouoghs 30% 30% 30%
Electric Drive Technology: Ready for Numerous Market Segments ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],8
WHY A SMART GRID ?
At its essence, a Smart Grid is the following: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How does a Smart Grid support Electric Vehicle Use: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],In other words, ideal for EV off-peak tarriffs
What does SG provide? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Smart Grid Can Shift the Economics of Recharging… thereby increasing the % of miles replaced with Electricity !
P-HEV Design Alternatives
- CA Grid Plus added upstream  benefits of biofuels Charge Depleting (Plug In) Systems  -> Lower GHG Emissions than simply hybrids 19
Role of Renewable Generation
[object Object],[object Object]
The “Systems Management” Challenge: How best to “farm” off-peak generation
Source:  http://www.co. marin .ca.us/ depts /CD/main/ comdev /advance/Sustainability/Energy/solar/resources/ pdf / MarinPVSeminar _1104_final. pdf   A Smart Grid Will Also Help Avoid the  Need for Diesel Back-up Generation…
AQMD Smart Grid Support Policies - I  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
AQMD Smart Grid (SG) Support Policies - II ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
AQMD Smart Grid (SG) Support Policies - III ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
AQMD Smart Grid Support Policies - IV ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ The Smart Grid will like you…”
THANK YOU FOR  THIS OPPORTUNITY  !

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Energy efficient transport in 2020, Paul Wuebben, Clean fuels officer, AQMD

  • 1. Energy Efficient Transport in 2020: Key Policy, Technology & Research Drivers Paul Wuebben, Clean Fuels Officer South Coast Air Quality Management District Southern California Smart Grid Research Symposium Davidson Conference Center UNIVERSITY of SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA October 6, 2009 +
  • 2.
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  • 7. Airborne Cancer Risk Including Diesel : Ubiquitous + Petroleum Use Driven South Coast Air Basin
  • 8. U.S. Oil Market Dynamics
  • 10. source: IPCC Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Unprecedented Growth Rates = Unprecedented Problems
  • 11. Source: James Hansen, 2008 Fossil Fuel Use: Largest Atmospheric Experiment in History
  • 12.
  • 13. Warmer Days Lead To Both Higher Emissions + More Ozone Source: Air Resources Board, 2000 Ozone (ppm) Temperature ( o F) Los Angeles Ozone Levels (1995-1998 ) California Ozone Standard Source: California Environmental Protection Agency
  • 14. ENSO – El Nino Southern Oscillation (3 – 8 yr. cycle) Climate Implications of High Carbon Fuel Use:
  • 15. Teleconnections and Feedbacks Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Tibetan Albedo Change? ENSO Triggering Indian Monsoon Transformation Bodele Dust Supply Change? Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump
  • 16. Teleconnections and Feedbacks Atlantic Deep Water Formation Instability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Southern Ocean Upwelling / Circumpolar Deep Water Formation Instability of Methane Clathrates Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? ENSO Triggering Bodele Dust Supply Change? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Tibetan Albedo Change? Indian Monsoon Transformation
  • 17. Runaway Greenhouse Dynamics? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Indian Monsoon Transformation Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Bodele Dust Supply Change? Tibetan Albedo Change? Atlantic Deep Water Formation Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Tibetan Albedo Change? Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Bodele Dust Supply Change? Atlantic Deep Water Formation ENSO Triggering Southern Ocean Upwelling / Circumpolar Deep Water Formation Instability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? ENSO Triggering Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? Instability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Southern Ocean Upwelling / Circumpolar Deep Water Formation Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions
  • 18. GHG Emissions: Transportation Sources Dominate in CA
  • 19.
  • 20. California’s RPS: Most Aggressive in the Country Source: Black and Veatch
  • 21. GHG Emissions (MMTCO2eq) AB32 Transportation Sector Carbon Reduction Strategies Plug-in Hybrids + Battery Electric Vehicles contribute to these “wedges”
  • 22.
  • 23. WTW GHG Emissions – gCO2e/MJ Adjustments reflect EER + iLUC assumptions Source: CARB Jan., 2009 Corn Ethanol with iLUC adjusted from 74.3 104.3 * CA-RFG 95.6 CARBOB 96.9 ULSD 94.5 CNG from N.A. gas adjusted from 68.0 75.6 * Corn Ethanol 74.3 G-H2 via LH2 transport, NA NG adjusted from 142.2 61.8 * G- H2 - onsite reform., NA NG adjusted from 98.3 42.7 * Electricity - CA mix adjusted from 124.1 41.4 * Gaseous H2 - onsite gen. NA LFG adjusted from 76.1 33.1 Biodiesel - Soybeans 26.9 Sugar Cane Ethanol adjusted from 26.6 72.6 Cellulosic Ethanol - Farmed Trees 5.38
  • 25. 12
  • 26.  
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 31.  
  • 32. 35 to 45 B Gals of Cellulosic Ethanol or Renewable Methanol Breakthroughs 30%
  • 33. 2 x Fuel Economy Increase with Aggressive Hybrid Drivetrains 40 – 50 mpg CAFE 35 to 45 B Gals of Cellulosic Ethanol or Biomass Methanol Breakthrouoghs 30% 30%
  • 34. Diversion to Renewable Electricity with Plug-in Technology Σ= 90% 2 x Fuel Economy Increase with Aggressive Hybrid Drivetrains 40 – 50 mpg CAFE 35 to 45 B Gals of Cellulosic Ethanol or Biomass Methanol Breakthrouoghs 30% 30% 30%
  • 35.
  • 36. WHY A SMART GRID ?
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40. A Smart Grid Can Shift the Economics of Recharging… thereby increasing the % of miles replaced with Electricity !
  • 42. - CA Grid Plus added upstream benefits of biofuels Charge Depleting (Plug In) Systems -> Lower GHG Emissions than simply hybrids 19
  • 43. Role of Renewable Generation
  • 44.
  • 45. The “Systems Management” Challenge: How best to “farm” off-peak generation
  • 46. Source: http://www.co. marin .ca.us/ depts /CD/main/ comdev /advance/Sustainability/Energy/solar/resources/ pdf / MarinPVSeminar _1104_final. pdf A Smart Grid Will Also Help Avoid the Need for Diesel Back-up Generation…
  • 47.
  • 48.
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  • 51.
  • 52. “ The Smart Grid will like you…”
  • 53. THANK YOU FOR THIS OPPORTUNITY !