The document discusses connecting climate change to national security in order to garner more support for addressing it. It argues that climate change endangers security by increasing risks of conflicts over issues like food and water scarcity. Linking climate change and security policies could help enlist more support and motivate large-scale progress in renewable energy, which benefits both climate change mitigation and security.

1. “ ... insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense…” The Case for Environmental & Energy Security Joel N. Gordes Environmental Energy Solutions 38 Brookmoor Rd. West Hartford, CT 06107 (860) 561-0566 [email_address] “ Dedicated to Executing Ideas, Not Killing Them!”

2. 1) Climate change is THE preeminent challenge 2) Currently, it’s mostly environmentalists who care 3) To stabilize emissions, we need more than enviros 4) Climate change endangers national/global security 5) More people care about national security than climate 6) Little large-scale progress without enlisting others 7) EE/RE is a common answer to both CC and security Security and Climate Change Must be Connected Makes It a Constitutional Issue

3. Climate Change Suffers from the “Adlai Stevenson” Syndrome When presidential candidate Adlai Stevenson was on the campaign trail a woman approached him and said, “Mr. Stevenson, every intelligent American will vote for you”. He is purported to have said, “We'll need a lot more than that to win”. So it is with climate change

5. January & June 07 Polls by the Pew Center

6. And How Do We Maintain Problem Focus Over the 50+ Years We Will Need to Merely Stabilize GHGs? Courtesy of Stratfor

7. CT Council on Environmental Quality 2006 Annual Report. Page 29. In Fact, We’re Still Moving Backwards

8. Falling Behind: New England Must Act Now to Reduce Global Warming Pollution Environment Connecticut Research & Policy Center Clean Water Fund March 2008

9. Falling Behind: New England Must Act Now to Reduce Global Warming Pollution Environment Connecticut Research & Policy Center Clean Water Fund March 2008

10. One Approach Would Tie Climate Change to National Security: Environmental Security A Basic Definition “… . The intellectual, operational, and policy space where environmental considerations and security concerns converge.” Prof. Greg Foster National Defense University A New Security Paradigm Worldwatch Jan/Feb 2005. P. 40

11. More Definitively Environmental security is the relationship of environmental factors to national security. It recognizes that degradation of ecosystems stresses human health, culture and resource requirements. This can result in competition for food, energy, water and other resources. (Case Study 2.) It can lead to conflicts that might not have otherwise arisen.

12. Case Study 1: Easter Island “Without trees, and so without canoes, the islanders were trapped in their remote home, unable to escape the consequences of their self-inflicted, environmental collapse. ….. There were increasing conflicts over diminishing resources resulting in a state of almost permanent warfare.” The Lessons of Easter Island. Clive Ponting http://www.eco-action.org/dt/eisland.html Also see: Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond

13. “ There is an increasing risk of social disruption within regions, countries, and communities over such age-old issues as fertile land and water supplies, ... and, perhaps worst for our species ... fouling the future for the sake of the present.” Sir Crispin Tickell. Climate Change & World Affairs Copyright 1977 , revised 1986 The Concept of Environmental Security is Not New

14. ... required changes--are of such scope and magnitude that courageous multilateral steps, beyond what has been accomplished even in our landmark arms-control agreements, are necessary. Such bold steps also are essential if we are to address the looming threat to geopolitical stability posed by climate change. Paul Nitze Former diplomat and arms negotiator Washington Post (editorial) July 2, 1997

15. There is a Certain Urgency To It “ ....we have at most ten years—not ten years to decide upon action, but ten years to alter fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse emissions .” The New York Review of Books Volume 53, Number 12, July 13, 2006, James Hansen Goddard Institute for Space Studies NASA

16. “ ...widespread accelerations of the catastrophic effects already associated with “normal” climate change …could lead to military confrontations between states over access to scarce food, water and energy supplies, or what the authors describe as a ‘world of warring states.’” Prof. Greg Foster National Defense University A New Security Paradigm Worldwatch Jan/Feb 2005. p. 40 . Discussion of a 2003 Pentagon Report on Abrupt Climate Change

17. . UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon In coming decades, changes in our environment and the resulting upheavals from droughts to inundated coastal areas to loss of arable land are likely to become a major driver of war and conflict… March 1, 2007 Climate change has profound implications for virtually all aspects of human well-being, from jobs and health to food security and peace within and among nations. ...Until we acknowledge the all-encompassing nature of the threat, our response will fall short. November 8, 2006 UN Secretary General Kofi Annan

19. Closer to Home, Potential Conflict With Our Canadian Neighbors Ah, for just one time I would take the Northwest Passage To find the hand of Franklin reaching for the Beaufort Sea; Tracing one warm line through a land so wild and savage And make a Northwest Passage to the sea.- Stan Rogers “ We are looking within the next thirty years at a probable opening of the Northwest passage as a trade route for shipping ... It also raises very serious concerns for Canada’s sovereignty as the US has never recognized Canadian sovereignty over this waterway ... Can you imagine the devastation that could be caused by a pollution incident in these Arctic waters.” Angus Ross, Chief Agent, SOREMA N.A., Reflections On The Future Climate Change and its impacts on the insurance industry A presentation to the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction. June 9, 2000

21. Massive Migration Disease Sea Level Rise Intense Precip & Floods Temperature Extremes Food Drought Rather than Increasing Security We Are Setting a Climate for Conflict & Insecurity

22. Case Study 2: Let’s Look at “Food” for a Moment In Attempts to Mitigate Climate Change We Have Increased the Use of Certain Renewables Fuels National Geographic. pp.43, 45. October 2007

23. Without Anticipating Unintended Consequences The Hartford Courant.Mar 27, Apr 1,4,9, 2008

24. The Hartford Courant. April 20, 2008

25. National Geographic. p .47. October 2007

26. Torrington Register-Citizen Feb 18, 1991 One Problem Was That Several “Yardsticks” Were Not Adequately Considered Either by Politicians, Farmers or the Advocacy Community. With Limited Time to Take Action to Stabilize Greenhouse Gases, We Cannot Afford to Take Actions That May Have Serious Unintended Consequences.

27. Even Though Specific Warnings were Given Although Lost In a Poor Attempt at Humor Torrington Register-Citizen Feb 18, 1991

28. Ethanol is Not the Only Driver for Food Scarcity In a Perverse Way, However, Attempts to Mitigate Climate Change May Have Laid the Groundwork for Conflict Over Food Scarcity in this Brief Case Study.

29. Many Climate-Related Factors Can Lead to Dislocations ...and Conflict The Hartford Courant. Aug 4, 2007

30. Randall & Schwartz for the US DoD

31. Center for Naval Analysis. April 2007

33. The Tactics Are Also Essential Revamp the Military to be Organized, Equipped & Trained for: Nation-building Peacekeeping Humanitarian Assistance Disaster Response Only Residually for warfighting Special Forces Once Had Some of These Roles Prof. Greg Foster National Defense University A New Security Paradigm Worldwatch Jan/Feb 2005. p. 46 .

34. There Are Precedents & Trends in the Military Driving Change School Lunch Programs Racial Integration ARPANET Lead to the Internet Massive Investment/Procurement Made Jet Flight Possible

35. Military and Space Programs Provided Initial Solar Price Reductions BUT Unlike Jet Engines, Massive Procurement for Ground-based Use Did Not Follow

36. "Renewable energy improves security and reliability for the base and protects the environment," Ward explained of the Air Force's policy.

37. Military Humanitarian Flights of Bottled Water Could be Largely replaced by PV-Powered Water Purifiers to Supply a Village’s Needs Indefinitely & Could be Air Dropped Another Example of What We Could be Doing

38. And Other VERY Practical Applications $4.2 Billion Spent on Electrifying Baghdad Full time power is a key goal Bush says Iraqis “must see improvements” Reliable electric power…is a critical one Shortages violate a key provision of counterinsurgency strategy to provide tangible benefits to the people The power problem is the most significant one to the effort “Waiting six years to get power turned on is too long” Full electicity in Baghdad 6 Years Off: $4.2 billion Spent on Key goal in Fighting Insurgency David Wood. Baltimore Sun. March 2, 2007

39. A Major Complaint of the Average Iraqi is Lack of Reliable Power Due to Terrorist Attacks " If they've knocked down 1,200 towers, it seems to me that they've knocked down every line at least once," said Hoff Stauffer...an authority on electrical grids at Cambridge Energy Research Associates... … .[He] suggested that maintaining Iraq's grid could be "fairly hopeless," and that so-called distributed generation — in which each hospital or housing complex has a separate generator — might be a better option until security improves. "Sabotage Cuts Power to More Than 100 Key Electrical Lines." James Glanz New York Times. June 11, 2004

41. More Use of Distributed Resources (DR or DG)

42. Based upon Lovins, Amory B. and Lovins, L. Hunter, Brittle Power, Energy Strategy for National Security , 1982. p. 218 Thanks to Geo. Hay and PG&E for Illustration Decentralization Operate in Isolated Modes Located Close to End Users- User Controllability Storage Buffers Failure Less Vulnerable 2) Many Small Units Supply/Distribution 1) Redundant, Diverse & Modular 3) Dispersed DG=Electric Resiliency for Force Protection & Nation-Building AND, of Course, for Mitigating Climate Change

43. The Goals of Security and Climate Stabilization Have Common Solutions

44. Conclusions Climate Change Brings Environmental Security Challenges To meet GHG Stabilization by 2054 is a daunting goal Massive procurement of renewable technologies can bring the price of renewable energy down The military has the means, the need, the budget and organizational ability to jumpstart this as it has with other technologies and trends Military support of this mission when tied to security policy brings in a broader segment of the population & constitutional mandates We don’t have time to spare in going forward