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2.2 iwmi fish to 2050 projection plan-tbs

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The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.

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2.2 iwmi fish to 2050 projection plan-tbs

  1. 1. FISH TO 2050 PROJECTION WorldFish/IFPRI 1
  2. 2. Global AQ production 2
  3. 3. Macroeconomic Trends Bias Corrected Climate Models (ISI-MIP) Hydrology Model (GHM) IMPACT Food and Livestock Model Water Basin Management Model (WBMM) Water Allocation and Stress Model (WASM) IMPACT Food and Livestock Model Crop Models (DSSAT) Water Demand Trends IMPACT Model System
  4. 4. Fish into IMPACT Capture Fisheries Agriculture Demand for Milk, Meat &Fish Aquaculture Livestock Protein MealFishmeal Processing Waste
  5. 5. Fish Model Structure: Commodity Aggregations: Supply and Demand Production Aggregation Consumption Aggregation Shrimp and Prawns Shrimp and Prawns Other Crustaceans Other Crustaceans Mollusks and other Aquatic Invertebrates and Animals Mollusks and other Aquatic Invertebrates and Animals Salmon, Trout and other Salmonoids Salmon, Trout and other Salmonoids Tuna Tuna Tilapia and other Cichlids Freshwater and other Diadromous Fish Pangasius and other Catfish Major Carp and Milkfish Eels and Sturgeon Silver, Bighead and Grass Carp Other Freshwater and Diadromous Fish Mullet Demersal Fish Demersal Fish Other Marine Fish Other Marine Fish Cobia and Swordfish Other Pelagic Fish Other Pelagic Fish
  6. 6. Production (Aquaculture , Capture) Demand (Food, Feed, Crush, Other) + Net Imports = CrushRatios FeedConversionRatios FishFishMeal&Oil ΣGlobal Net Imports = 0 Global-Level Trade Balance Country-Level Supply and Demand Balance Demand Production (Whole Fish, Waste) + Net Exports = ΣGlobal Net Exports = 0 Global-Level Trade Balance Country-Level Supply and Demand Balance
  7. 7. And if I haven’t lost you by now… Page 7 … remember that this same balancing needs to be done for each of the 16 fish species in each of the 159 regions (up from 115 previously)
  8. 8. Dataset I. Dataset II. Dataset III. Dataset Followed Strictly Dataset Followed As Closely As Possible Dataset Followed As Closely As Possible Expert Estimate Calculated by Authors From Literature Based on Peru Unknown
  9. 9. Schematic plan of Fish to 2050 report 9 Pathway Options Inputs/Outputs Defined for Scenarios & Pathways Implications for investment & aquaculture development and environment management FISH INTO IMPACT MODEL Aquaculture System Characterization and analysis with LCA Scenario Development Scenarios Fish Projections Fish supply & Demand to 2050 Systems characterized LCA results
  10. 10. The four LCA phases as outlined by ISO 10
  11. 11. Example of LCA results…

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