Successfully reported this slideshow.
Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Upcoming SlideShare
3 gfsf irri progress
3 gfsf irri progress
Loading in …3
×

Check these out next

1 of 12 Ad
Advertisement

More Related Content

Slideshows for you (18)

Similar to Wiebe woc dc 9 jun15 (20)

Advertisement

More from Global Future & Strategic Foresight Program (GFSF) (20)

Advertisement

Wiebe woc dc 9 jun15

  1. 1. Global Economics Team Update Keith Wiebe, IFPRI World Outlook Conference USDA Economic Research Service, Washington DC 9 June 2015
  2. 2. Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
  3. 3. AgMIP Global Economics Team • ABARES • CIRED • EuroCARE • FAO • IDS • IFPRI (Wiebe) • IIASA • IPTS-JRC (Perez) • LEI-WUR (van Meijl) • MIT • NCAR • NIES • OECD (von Lampe) • PBL • PIK (Lotze-Campen) • PNNL • Purdue (van der Mensbrugghe) • USDA-ERS
  4. 4. AgMIP Global Economics Phase 1 results (published in PNAS and a special issue of Agricultural Economics, 2014) Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
  5. 5. Scenario SSP Climate GCM Trade policy Economic model Crop model 1.0 SSP 1 No change none No change ENVISAGE, FARM, IMPACT, MAGNET, MAgPIE LPJmL 1.1 RCP 4.5 HadGEM 1.2 IPSL 1.3 MIROC 1.4 HadGEM Liberalized ENV, FAR, MGN, MGP 2.0 SSP 2 No change none No change ENVISAGE, FARM, IMPACT, MAGNET, MAgPIE LPJmL 2.1 RCP 6.0 HadGEM 2.2 IPSL 2.3 MIROC 3.0 SSP 3 No change none No change ENVISAGE, FARM, IMPACT, MAGNET, MAgPIE LPJmL 3.1 RCP 8.5 HadGEM 3.2 IPSL 3.3 MIROC 3.4 HadGEM Restricted ENV, FAR, MGN, MGP AgMIP Global Economics Phase 2a “USDA scenarios”
  6. 6. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Population, GDP and agricultural productivity assumptions by SSP (annual percentage change, 2010 – 2050) Source: IIASA, OECD, work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS
  7. 7. Baseline results for SSP1, 2 and 3 Baseline increases in global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2005 values) Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS
  8. 8. Climate change impacts in 2050 Climate change impacts on global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2050 baseline values) Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS
  9. 9. SSP x RCP combinations Analyzed so far SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 RCP8.5 Phase 1 USDA 3.1-3.4 RCP6.0 USDA 2.1-2.3 RCP4.5 USDA 1.1-1.4 RCP2.6 NoCC USDA 1.0 Phase 1 USDA 2.0 USDA 3.0
  10. 10. SSP x RCP combinations Planning for future work Climate Focus SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 RCP8.5 BAU + RCP8.5 CC impacts X X X X RAP5 RCP6.0 BAU + RCP6.0 CC impacts RAP1 RAP2 RAP3 RAP4 RCP4.5 BAU + RCP4.5 CC impacts RAP3m RCP2.6 Ambitiousmitigation (+RCP2.6 CC impacts) RAP1m RAP2m X RAP4m RAP5m NoCC NoCCscenarios NoCC1 NoCC2 NoCC3 NoCC4 NoCC5
  11. 11. AgMIP Global Economics Next steps • Current work in review at Environmental Research Letters and USDA report on climate change and food security • RAPs, land use, livestock, trade, elasticities • Additional SSP x RCP scenarios • Special issue in 2016 • Contributions to IPCC AR6
  12. 12. Thank you k.wiebe@cgiar.org

×