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4 ilri gfsf-0515_final



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The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.

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4 ilri gfsf-0515_final

  1. 1. Progress Report on GFSF work at ILRI Presented By Dolapo Enahoro Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Extended Team Meeting Abitart Hotel, Rome 25 – 28 May, 2015
  2. 2. Modeling (>30% commitment)  Dolapo Enahoro, Agricultural Economist  Signe Nelgen, Policy Economist  Mohamadou Fadiga, Agricultural Economist Technologies platform (~5% time commitment)  Ben Lukuyu (Feed Nutritionist)  Henry Kiara (Epidemiologist)  Julie Ojango (Genetics/Breeds Scientist) GFSF Team at ILRI 2
  3. 3. Road Map  Overview of GFSF work at ILRI  Highlights of completed work  2015 updates  Ongoing work and 2015 plans  Prospects and challenges  Discussion
  4. 4. Overview of GFSF Work at ILRI Technologies Parameterization Livestock Systems Characterization Mega-drivers, scenarios of investment and policy IMPACT Model application Livestock Module Improvement 4 Livestock Value Chain Analysis Outputs
  5. 5.  Global livestock production systems characterization (Herrero et al., 2012)  Promising Technologies reports (2012, 2013)  Analysis of options for livestock development in selected regions (McDermott et al, 2013)  Analysis of livestock futures (Herrero et al., 2013)  Dialogue on livestock policy analysis and modeling (Accra Conference, November 2013)  ILRI, IFPRI, IIASA, CIRAD, AfDB, OIE, GALVmed, ACET, academia, government, civic society represented  livestock-value-chains-conference-highlights/  Improving livestock’s specification in the IMPACT model (Msangi et al., 2014) Highlights of Completed Work 5
  6. 6.  Report on cattle breeds and technologies in dairy systems (Ojango and Wasike, January 2015)  Burkina Faso, Kenya, Tanzania  India  Nicaragua  Reports on livestock feeds’ use and availability and feed technologies (consultant-led study, March 2015)  Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda  India, Vietnam  Nicaragua  Reports on cattle ECF and small ruminant PPR diseases and vaccines development (consultant-led study, May 2015)  Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda  Congo (Dem, Rep.,), South Sudan  Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe 2015 Update: Parameters of Livestock Technologies 6
  7. 7. 7 Table 1. Milk productiona performance in Tanzania Country Production system Genotype Ave. DMY Tanzania Mixed Crossbred cattle, Mpwapwa 5.42 Extensive Tanzania shorthorn zebu x Exotic crosses 3 Medium scale dairy Exotic x indigenous crosses 7 Smallholder system Exotic x indigenous crosses, purebred exotic 5.6 a Ave. DMY= average daily milk yield in litres Extensive rangeland/ Mixed Crop- Livestock system 98% Intensive system 2% Figure 2. Cattle population by production system, Tanzania Source: Ojango et al., in prep. Update: Some data on Livestock breeds
  8. 8. 8 Update: Some data on Cattle ECF disease Figure 3: Map of Africa showing countries in which ECF is endemic Country Morbidity Case fatality (%) (%) Congo (DRC) 0.58 10.26 Kenya 35.25 5.98 Mozambique 1.96 67.57 South Sudan 5.06 34.38 Sudan 4.62 40.63 Tanzania 1.51 10.69 Uganda 16.3 12.35 Zambia 6.68 19.78 Zimbabwe 1.1 32.76 Source: Franco-Dixon et al., in prep. Table 2: ECF morbidity and mortality
  9. 9.  Follow-up on improved livestock specification work 9 2015 Update: IMPACT-Livestock Model Improvement Source: Msangi et al., 2014
  10. 10. 2015 Plans: Parameters of Livestock Technologies  Update database of livestock productivity and production parameters and ensure IMPACT-compatibility  Apply data to validation exercise on IMPACT model (livestock) parameters  Data will be applied to livestock scenarios testing in IMPACT  Single technology runs in multiple countries  Joint technology runs where appropriate (Examples): • Livestock breeds and feed improvement in India • Breed, feed and vaccine development in Tanzania 10
  11. 11. 2015-6 Plans: IMPACT Livestock Model application  Model testing and validation  Context-setting to livestock value chains (LVC) targeting  Scenarios development in consultation with experts on: • Genetics, feeds, animal health and other technologies (ongoing) • Livestock value chain activities and development • Livestock-environment interactions • Climate Change effects on livestock production • National policies influencing livestock development and how these are evolving  Improve welfare indicators and interpretation of the results to better reflect • Livestock’s role in pro-poor development • Country-specific gender and agriculture relations 11
  12. 12.  Renewed interest in foresight analysis and in its role in R&D and investment decision-making  Global funding cuts pose practical challenges to project operation  Active collaboration on scenarios development holds much promise for quality of our outputs  Joint testing of food-feed grain variety improvements  Joint modelling of CC effects on food-feed sources and interactions with livestock Prospects, Challenges and Ideas to Explore 12
  13. 13. Discussion 13
  14. 14. Acknowledgements The GFSF project at ILRI has benefited from the support of : • The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation The CGIAR Research Programs on: • Policies, Institutes and Markets • Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security • Livestock and Fish And from research collaboration with: • IFPRI IMPACT Team • P. Havlik (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA) 14