1.
Progress Report on GFSF work at ILRI
Presented By
Dolapo Enahoro
Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Extended Team Meeting
Abitart Hotel, Rome
25 – 28 May, 2015

2.
Modeling (>30% commitment)
 Dolapo Enahoro, Agricultural Economist
 Signe Nelgen, Policy Economist
 Mohamadou Fadiga, Agricultural Economist
Technologies platform (~5% time commitment)
 Ben Lukuyu (Feed Nutritionist)
 Henry Kiara (Epidemiologist)
 Julie Ojango (Genetics/Breeds Scientist)
GFSF Team at ILRI
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3.
Road Map
 Overview of GFSF work at ILRI
 Highlights of completed work
 2015 updates
 Ongoing work and 2015 plans
 Prospects and challenges
 Discussion

4.
Overview of GFSF Work at ILRI
Technologies
Parameterization
Livestock
Systems
Characterization
Mega-drivers,
scenarios of
investment and policy
IMPACT Model
application
Livestock
Module
Improvement
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Livestock Value
Chain Analysis
Outputs

5.
 Global livestock production systems characterization (Herrero
et al., 2012)
 Promising Technologies reports (2012, 2013)
 Analysis of options for livestock development in selected
regions (McDermott et al, 2013)
 Analysis of livestock futures (Herrero et al., 2013)
 Dialogue on livestock policy analysis and modeling (Accra
Conference, November 2013)
 ILRI, IFPRI, IIASA, CIRAD, AfDB, OIE, GALVmed, ACET,
academia, government, civic society represented
 http://www.pim.cgiar.org/2013/11/18/mainstreaming-
livestock-value-chains-conference-highlights/
 Improving livestock’s specification in the IMPACT model
(Msangi et al., 2014)
Highlights of Completed Work
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6.
 Report on cattle breeds and technologies in dairy systems
(Ojango and Wasike, January 2015)
 Burkina Faso, Kenya, Tanzania
 India
 Nicaragua
 Reports on livestock feeds’ use and availability and feed
technologies (consultant-led study, March 2015)
 Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda
 India, Vietnam
 Nicaragua
 Reports on cattle ECF and small ruminant PPR diseases
and vaccines development (consultant-led study, May 2015)
 Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda
 Congo (Dem, Rep.,), South Sudan
 Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe
2015 Update: Parameters of Livestock Technologies
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7.
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Table 1. Milk productiona
performance in
Tanzania
Country Production system Genotype Ave. DMY
Tanzania
Mixed
Crossbred
cattle,
Mpwapwa
5.42
Extensive
Tanzania
shorthorn
zebu x Exotic
crosses
3
Medium scale
dairy
Exotic x
indigenous
crosses
7
Smallholder
system
Exotic x
indigenous
crosses,
purebred
exotic
5.6
a
Ave. DMY= average daily milk yield in litres
Extensive
rangeland/
Mixed Crop-
Livestock
system
98%
Intensive
system
2%
Figure 2. Cattle population by production system,
Tanzania
Source: Ojango et al., in prep.
Update: Some data on Livestock breeds

8.
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Update: Some data on Cattle ECF disease
Figure 3: Map of Africa showing countries in which ECF is endemic
Country Morbidity Case fatality
(%) (%)
Congo (DRC) 0.58 10.26
Kenya 35.25 5.98
Mozambique 1.96 67.57
South Sudan 5.06 34.38
Sudan 4.62 40.63
Tanzania 1.51 10.69
Uganda 16.3 12.35
Zambia 6.68 19.78
Zimbabwe 1.1 32.76
Source: Franco-Dixon et al., in prep.
Table 2: ECF morbidity and mortality

9.
 Follow-up on improved livestock specification work
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2015 Update: IMPACT-Livestock Model Improvement
Source: Msangi et al., 2014

10.
2015 Plans: Parameters of Livestock Technologies
 Update database of livestock productivity and production
parameters and ensure IMPACT-compatibility
 Apply data to validation exercise on IMPACT model
(livestock) parameters
 Data will be applied to livestock scenarios testing in IMPACT
 Single technology runs in multiple countries
 Joint technology runs where appropriate
(Examples):
• Livestock breeds and feed improvement in India
• Breed, feed and vaccine development in Tanzania
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11.
2015-6 Plans: IMPACT Livestock Model application
 Model testing and validation
 Context-setting to livestock value chains (LVC) targeting
 Scenarios development in consultation with experts on:
• Genetics, feeds, animal health and other technologies
(ongoing)
• Livestock value chain activities and development
• Livestock-environment interactions
• Climate Change effects on livestock production
• National policies influencing livestock development and
how these are evolving
 Improve welfare indicators and interpretation of the results to
better reflect
• Livestock’s role in pro-poor development
• Country-specific gender and agriculture relations
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12.
 Renewed interest in foresight analysis and in its role in R&D
and investment decision-making
 Global funding cuts pose practical challenges to project
operation
 Active collaboration on scenarios development holds much
promise for quality of our outputs
 Joint testing of food-feed grain variety improvements
 Joint modelling of CC effects on food-feed sources and
interactions with livestock
Prospects, Challenges and Ideas to Explore
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13.
Discussion
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14.
Acknowledgements
The GFSF project at ILRI has benefited from the support of :
• The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
The CGIAR Research Programs on:
• Policies, Institutes and Markets
• Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
• Livestock and Fish
And from research collaboration with:
• IFPRI IMPACT Team
• P. Havlik (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA)
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