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GFSF Worldfish ActivityGFSF Worldfish Activity
ProgressProgress
Tran Van Nhuong, Chan Chin Yee
Worldfish GFSF 2015
Workplan/Deliverables
Fish to 2050 report: using IMPACT model WorldFish & IFPRI
working paper
Q2/2016?...
Fish to 2050 report with IMPACT model
Fish to 2050 report: technological change, environmental limit,
and futures of fish ...
INDONESIA WORK
Fish supply and demand modelling projection for Indonesia
using the ASIAFISH/fish sector modelling approach
Vietnam Work
Spatially-explicit scenarios for aquaculture targets and zoning in
the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam
Modelling with ASIAFISH
Supply: domestic supply + foreign supply
Supply = f(output price, input price, other non-price fac...
Asia Fish sector Model Framework
Factor DD/SS
Shifters
Factor market Producer core Product
markets
Consumer core Product
d...
Scenarios for ASIAFISH model
• Implications of socio-economic growth (income,
population)
• Implications of factor prices ...
ASIAFISH MODEL INDONESIA
Initial results….
Thank you!
n.tran@cgiar.org
c.chan@cgiar.org
1 worldfish gfsf progress-rome  may23-28 2015
1 worldfish gfsf progress-rome  may23-28 2015
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1 worldfish gfsf progress-rome may23-28 2015

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The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.

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1 worldfish gfsf progress-rome may23-28 2015

  1. 1. GFSF Worldfish ActivityGFSF Worldfish Activity ProgressProgress Tran Van Nhuong, Chan Chin Yee
  2. 2. Worldfish GFSF 2015 Workplan/Deliverables Fish to 2050 report: using IMPACT model WorldFish & IFPRI working paper Q2/2016? Fish supply and demand modelling projection for Indonesia using the ASIAFISH modelling approach WorldFish Working Paper Q3/2015 Spatially-explicit scenarios for aquaculture targets and zoning in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam WorldFish Working Paper Q4/2015
  3. 3. Fish to 2050 report with IMPACT model Fish to 2050 report: technological change, environmental limit, and futures of fish supply
  4. 4. INDONESIA WORK Fish supply and demand modelling projection for Indonesia using the ASIAFISH/fish sector modelling approach
  5. 5. Vietnam Work Spatially-explicit scenarios for aquaculture targets and zoning in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam
  6. 6. Modelling with ASIAFISH Supply: domestic supply + foreign supply Supply = f(output price, input price, other non-price factors) Import = Armington trade solution Demand: domestic demand + foreign demand Demand =f (product price, income, other factors) Export= Armington trade solution Model closing conditions: Supply == Demand
  7. 7. Asia Fish sector Model Framework Factor DD/SS Shifters Factor market Producer core Product markets Consumer core Product demand shifters Profit functions, System of output supply and factor demand equations Supply of imports Technology, Environment, and policy shifters Demand for exports System of consumers demand equations DD: • DD from other sectors (livestock) • Trade and exchange rate policies SS: • Import subsidies • Taxes • Domestic industry efficiency SS Shifter: • Population growth • Migration • Employment outside fisheries/aquaculture sector • Population growth • Income growth • International trade • Tariff/ taxes
  8. 8. Scenarios for ASIAFISH model • Implications of socio-economic growth (income, population) • Implications of factor prices (e.g., fertilizer, labor) • Trade implications (e.g., import prices, export prices, exchange rate) • Climate change, technological change
  9. 9. ASIAFISH MODEL INDONESIA Initial results….
  10. 10. Thank you! n.tran@cgiar.org c.chan@cgiar.org

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