1 worldfish gfsf progress-rome may23-28 2015
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The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.
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1 worldfish gfsf progress-rome may23-28 2015
- 1. GFSF Worldfish ActivityGFSF Worldfish Activity ProgressProgress Tran Van Nhuong, Chan Chin Yee
- 2. Worldfish GFSF 2015 Workplan/Deliverables Fish to 2050 report: using IMPACT model WorldFish & IFPRI working paper Q2/2016? Fish supply and demand modelling projection for Indonesia using the ASIAFISH modelling approach WorldFish Working Paper Q3/2015 Spatially-explicit scenarios for aquaculture targets and zoning in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam WorldFish Working Paper Q4/2015
- 3. Fish to 2050 report with IMPACT model Fish to 2050 report: technological change, environmental limit, and futures of fish supply
- 4. INDONESIA WORK Fish supply and demand modelling projection for Indonesia using the ASIAFISH/fish sector modelling approach
- 6. Vietnam Work Spatially-explicit scenarios for aquaculture targets and zoning in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam
- 8. Modelling with ASIAFISH Supply: domestic supply + foreign supply Supply = f(output price, input price, other non-price factors) Import = Armington trade solution Demand: domestic demand + foreign demand Demand =f (product price, income, other factors) Export= Armington trade solution Model closing conditions: Supply == Demand
- 9. Asia Fish sector Model Framework Factor DD/SS Shifters Factor market Producer core Product markets Consumer core Product demand shifters Profit functions, System of output supply and factor demand equations Supply of imports Technology, Environment, and policy shifters Demand for exports System of consumers demand equations DD: • DD from other sectors (livestock) • Trade and exchange rate policies SS: • Import subsidies • Taxes • Domestic industry efficiency SS Shifter: • Population growth • Migration • Employment outside fisheries/aquaculture sector • Population growth • Income growth • International trade • Tariff/ taxes
- 10. Scenarios for ASIAFISH model • Implications of socio-economic growth (income, population) • Implications of factor prices (e.g., fertilizer, labor) • Trade implications (e.g., import prices, export prices, exchange rate) • Climate change, technological change
- 11. ASIAFISH MODEL INDONESIA Initial results….
Editor's Notes
- Other outputs/deliverables in 2015: Review of Literature on Seafood Demand and Supply: Recommendations for Building Country Specific Fish Sector Models Review of promising aquaculture technologies, climate smart aquaculture practices
- Note: both qualitative scenario building and modelling approaches are used. Qualitative scenario: Develop narrative stories describing drivers of change, quality of change, change pathways, impact pathways, logic of impacts, uncertainties, complexity Modeling: Identify trends, direction of changes, magnitudes of change,…; Model simplifies reality, keep key structures and interactions
- For this study the model will be disaggregated as: National aggregate = MRD + Rest of the country Total fish output = Aquaculture + Fisheries Aquaculture = shrimp + catfish + tilapia + carps +… (to include dominant fish types) Fish output (O) = A (area) x P (productivity) A will be given by CC scenarios: In a future where the MRD will be impacted by climate change and sea-level rise, and changes in hydrological conditions, the present spatial pattern of aquaculture may change. P will be given by aquaculture outlook reviews: Adaptation and advancement in aquaculture technologies via R&D will affect productivity. Deliverable in 2015: A WorldFish working paper reviewing past and current aquaculture economics and markets outlook in the Mekong Delta; ways forward (future scenarios for aquaculture economics and market outlooks); and suggestions for further research and modeling; Due Q4/2015
- Theoretical foundation: The AsiaFish model is a partial equilibrium country specific fish sector model. Derived supply function approach: normalized profit function… Demand model follows three budgeting stages, final stage is the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) Assume that a group of closely related seafood products is separable from other foods. If commodities are assumed to be separable, multi-stage budgeting becomes possible. Trade code: Armington approach: foreign-domestic aggregate for production, consumptuon.
- Chin Yee ….