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6 icrisat progress 2015 gfsf extended team meeting-rome 25-28 may

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6 icrisat progress 2015 gfsf extended team meeting-rome 25-28 may

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The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.

The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.

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6 icrisat progress 2015 gfsf extended team meeting-rome 25-28 may

  1. 1. Global Futures and Strategic Foresight @ ICRISAT Progress update of 2015 deliverables S Nedumaran Research Program – Markets, Institutions ad Policies ICRISAT | India 26 May 2015
  2. 2.  ICRISAT is one among 5 CG center started GFP  Multidisciplinary team created and institutionalized (14 member team)  Supporting priority setting, foresight and scenarios analysis for CRP DC and GL  Collaboration with other CRPs and Global Projects like AgMIP (data sharing, model enhancement, capacity building) Global Futures and Strategic Foresight @ ICRISAT Multi-disciplinary team @ ICRISAT
  3. 3. Achievements in GFSF @ ICRISAT  Crop model improvement completed – Sorghum, Groundnut and Chickpeas  Abiotic stress tolerant virtual cultivars evaluated for Sorghum and Groundnuts  Technology reports for ICRISAT mandate crops  Contributed to CRP GL and DC priority setting and justifying country focus  Contributed subnational level data for SPAM model improvement Capacity building:  1 training program on foresight model and its application for ESA economists  1 DSSAT crop model training conducted for CG and NARS partners
  4. 4. Publications: • 5 Journal articles (ISI journal) • 1 Book Chapter • 3 ICRISAT working/discussion paper Data/tools management • Populating the Dataverse with socio-economic and experimental data - http://dataverse.icrisat.org/ • Spatial Tool: http://spatial-tools.icrisat.ac.in/
  5. 5. Update on Progress in 2015 deliverables
  6. 6. Millets disaggregation IMPACT  SPAM (2005) used to estimate the production share of pearl millets and small millets (other millets)  Validating the production shares – with national statistics and experts knowledge
  7. 7. Modification of the CERES-Pearl millet model Model deficiencies in the default version: Did not simulate heat tolerance of pearl millet, i.e., changes in seed set at high temperatures Underestimated yields at low plant density or wider row-spacing Underestimated leaf area index of tillers Overestimated yield loss when drought stressed during panicle initiation to flowering or during flowering to seed-filling stages Overestimated harvest index under extended day length conditions
  8. 8. Relationship of seed set with mean air temperature in pearl millet Source: Gupta et al. (2015)
  9. 9. Code and parameter changes in the model  All relationships determining heat tolerance in millet incorporated  Model code changed for better estimation of light extinction coefficient (LIFAC) to improve model response to plant population and row spacing  An additional genetic coefficient (GT) was added and other related changes made to improve LAI response of tillers  Effect of water stress on daily panicle growth (GROPAN) and panicle weight (PANWT) reduced by excluding TURFAC (turgor factor) in the GROPAN equation  Effect of day-length on harvest index still needs to be attempted  Collaborating with CRP DC in conducting field experiments  Collaborate with UF and DSSAT foundation (USAID-ICRISAT Linkage fund)
  10. 10. Simulated number of seeds/plant with increasing mean temperature
  11. 11. Simulated number of grain yield with increasing mean temperature
  12. 12. Spatial crop modeling – Case Studies Case study:1 – Groundnut, India  Used well calibrated groundnut cultivars  Sowing window, fertilizer inputs across location using experts opinion  Needs to develop better soil profile raster for improving the simulations
  13. 13. Spatial Groundnut yield South Asia (Kg/ha) Base climate GFDL MIROC
  14. 14. Groundnut yield masked to crop area  Remote sensing data was used to develop the crop area extends  Clip the yields to that pixel  Crop extend maps can be used to update the SPAM maps
  15. 15. Work in progress in spatial crop modeling in 2015 Crop type masking for all ICRISAT mandate crops for South Asia was completed (Gumma et al.,) Integrated assessment of climate change impacts and various NRM interventions will be studied for South Asia for groundnut and chickpea Improvements in the global-scale crop modeling simulations by providing better inputs –case study groundnut (sowing window/soil etc.,)
  16. 16. Estimating total welfare benefits (direct and spillover) using Single-multi market Economic surplus model To assess the spillover potential of technologies to inform decision making Research domains for 5 ICRISAT mandate crops completed Modified version of excel based ACIAR spillover model was developed Estimation of welfare benefits for 5 crops completed A proposal was submitted to CABI to publish a edited book Title: DECISION SUPPORT FOR INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH: Linking Impact and Spillover Assessments to Priority Setting
  17. 17. Global Millet Research Domains Nedumaran et al., 2013
  18. 18. Welfare benefits for Millets – Real world vs Ideal world (US$ M) 776.3 Million IRR – 17.7% Nedumaran et al., 2013
  19. 19. Integrating gender and nutrition in foresight modeling Identification and compilation of database from various sources - national, sub-national, micro-level 1. BMI - percentage of population by gender, rural & urban level, age cohort for Southeast Asia and African regions 2. Nutritional status of children 0-5 years for Southern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Northern Africa and Western Asia regions 3. % of children malnourished - who are exclusively breastfed, breastfed with complementary food, still breastfeeding, at country level 4. % of population below international poverty line of US$1.25 per day, % of central government expenditure (1997–2006*) allocated to health and education (India) 5. Data on women education, contraceptive prevalence and Antenatal care, delivery care coverage , maternal mortality ratio from 2000-2007 (India) 6. % of children underweight by gender, rural ,urban and income level for all regions of the world. (Source: UNICEF) 7. NFHS and NSSO – India 8. DHS – Global download and compilation in progress 9. Data on sanitation indicators
  20. 20. 2. Next step - Developing an index Developing a composite index to be used in the foresight model • Computing WEAI – for 3 states in India • Developing a index for nutritional status for boys, girls, men and women • Linking Sanitation indicators to nutrition status – micro level, national level (India and Bangladesh) 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00 Mahbubnagar Akola Solapur Percentageofchildrenunderfiveyearsofage Nutritional status of children under five years of age using Height for age (stunting) indicator, 2013-2014 Severe Stunting (< median -3SD) Moderate Stunting (< median -2SD to >= median -3SD) Normal (>= median -2SD)
  21. 21.  DSSAT training – Completed (March, 2015)  Gridded spatial crop model training (Jan 2015 and follow up April 2015)  Spatial Tool: http://spatial-tools.icrisat.ac.in/  Publication:  1 Journal article published in 2015 (ISI journal)  2 working paper (under review) Capacity Building, data tools and Publication
  22. 22. Thank you! ICRISAT is a member of the CGIAR Consortium

Editor's Notes

  • Start with realistic scenario (green – given current adaptive capacity and adoption levels
    Significant benefits in Asia and WCA: should continue with ICRISAT PM research – global research benefits including spillovers (green levels).
    Past spillovers to ESA (ex-post assessment) have already vanished? SMIP impact not sustained (down to 10m)?
    Huge cost of training and extension: to enable capacity building: from .2 to 1; and Adoption constrained: .3 to 1)
    To achieve the Ideal World estimate, we need enough funds to increase adaptive capacity from .2 to 1 ; and enough funds to take adoption from 30% to 100%. Calculate very high cost. Reckon how AGRA investment and Seed Systems investment is enough (consider risk – governance factor).
    With uncertainty scenario in Africa, must analyze the implication of the benefit levels represented by green bars:
    Total benefits = $776m = US$260 m in WCA and US$507m in Asia; and 10m in ESA.
    How do we increase this benefit levels?
    Unit cost reduction (k) through strategic research; b. improve adaptive capacity (Pa); c. improve adoption (x)
    Need to reckon the cost of achieving each step:
    Cost of achieving 10% unit cost reduction (to produce green bar) compared with
    To achieve red bar, how much will it cost to elevate adaptive capacity levels from present level of .2 to max of 1? MASSIVE - AGRA
    To achieve blue bar, how much will it cost to elevate adoption from present level of .3 to max of 1? MASSIVE (ICRISAT contributing through seed systems; but only a small part)
    Real significant contribution is through research impacts -
    a. What are the tradeoffs?
    Total global benefits including spillover is $776m: US$260 m benefits (green) welfare gains in WCA and almost double (US$507m) in Asia.
    Talk about the cost of achieving the “blues”; with high uncertainty!
    Talk about ‘k’ – research breakthroughs
    How do we balance research to achieve the required breakthroughs:
    big k shift through innovative research (focus of Asia given fixed infrastructure and high probability of achieving breakthroughs through good partnership in Asia)
    Strategic approach in catalyzing capacity building through south-south cooperation (bridge – broker – catalyst)
    Strategic approach through ARIs, other IARCS and private sector
    Strategic implication – establish critical mass in PM research in WCA to harness the max potential – on condition (limitation/caveat) that the adaptive and adoption constraints are addressed e.g. seed systems, capacity building, infrastructure, policy and governance
    Research emphasis on PM in WCA with target PE: PE 1,2,3
    Harness strategic research in Asia (Fixed costs effect) to generate significant ‘k’ – breakthroughs

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