Presentation by Dr. Cobus LeRoux (ARC-Field Crops Division, South Africa) at Wheat for Food Security in Africa conference, Oct 9, 2012, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

2. A Competitive South African Wheat Industry Is
Paramount To Food Security
Cobus le Roux
ARC-Field Crops Division

3. Curiosity Rover makes near-perfect landing on Mars

5. Undernourishment
Source: FAO

6. World estimates: Total grains
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
est forecast
23.08 28.09
TOTAL GRAINS*
Production 1799 1751 1850 1779 1767
Trade 240 243 268 249 249
Consumption 1769 1785 1845 1809 1806
Carryover stocks 401 367 372 338 332
year/year change 30 -34 5 -40
Major exporters a) 173 140 129 103 99
a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United States
* Wheat and coarse grains
Source: International Grain Council

7. World estimates: Wheat
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
est forecast
23.08 28.09
WHEAT
Production 679 653 696 662 657
Trade 128 126 145 133 132
Consumption 653 659 691 679 679
Carryover stocks 199 193 197 180 175
year/year change 26 -6 4 -22
Major exporters a) 78 72 70 54 51
a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United States
Source: International Grain Council

8. Per capita food production, calories (kcal/day, 2009)

9. As for the future, our task is clear ………
Today the world’s population is growing
at 200 people per minute and is
forecasted to reach 12 billion by 2050.
The daunting task for us as agricultural
sector is to produce double the amount
of food in the next 50 years, than what
we produced since the beginning of
agriculture 10 000 years ago.

10. Access: South African, supply and demand
Source: Landbouweekblad
Production, consumption, trade, price of South African wheat
Thousand tons
Production Consumption Imports

11. Affordability: Poorest 30% of South African household’s budget spent
on food and non-alcoholic beverages
• 2005/2006 14,5%
• 2008/2009 19,3%
• 2011/2012 36,4%

12. Affordability: SA consumers are paying more for food …
Source: M & G

13. Affordability: Bread and cereals are increasing the most
Source: M & G

14. Factors affecting competitiveness of the South African Wheat
Industry:
Wheat/Maize price ratio
Rand/ton

15. Factors affecting competitiveness of the South African Wheat
Industry:
Wheat/Maize price ratio
Wheat Maize Soybeans

16. Factors affecting competitiveness of South African Wheat Industry
Wheat Price fluctuations

17. Factors affecting competitiveness of South African Wheat Industry
High production costs
Comparison of international wheat production cost in 2011
Argentina USA Germany Australia Canada RSA RSA
Dryland* Irrigation
Yield (t/ha) 4.17 3.7 7.62 2.54 3.14 2.3 8.37
Total Cost ($/ha) 627 638 1734 517 573 799 1621
Cost per ton ($) 150 172 227 204 182 347 194
Government Supp 0 7.37 56.40 2.86 0 0 0
($/ton)
Source: BFAP, 2011 and www.agribenchmark.org

18. Factors affecting competitiveness of South African Wheat
Industry
Challenging production environment
• Winter rainfall area: Stable
• Irrigation summer rainfall area: Stable
• Dryland summer rainfall area: Unstable and changing

19. Factors affecting competitiveness of South African Wheat
Industry
Challenging environment: USA
Source: Time Magazine

20. Profile: South African Wheat Industry
• Commercial 99%
• Small-Holder <1%
• Dryland Production 56%
• Irrigation Production 44%
• Past 10 years: Production <19%
Consumption >17%
• Imports 37%

21. Profile: Small-holder wheat farmer
• 8% own land
• 42% farm on commercial land
• 45% members of farmer organisations
• 61% of farms are smaller than 10 ha
• 77% of farmers have (on average) 9 years experience

22. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
Access to sound scientific data on production practices, cultivar
performance, etc.
Recommended cultivars:
• 20 Irrigation
• 11 Spring Dryland
• 16 Intermediate Dryland

23. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
Access to long-term Cultivar Performance Data
Average yield (ton/ha) of entries for the Swartland area during the full or partial period from 2008 - 2011
4 year average 3 year average 2 year average
Cultivar 2011 R 2010 R 2009 R 2008 R R R R
2008-2011 2009-2011 2010-2011
Baviaans 3.54 9 3.07 8 3.62 11 4.27 6 3.62 6 3.41 9 3.30 7
Duzi 3.87 10
Kariega 3.48 10 3.08 6 3.66 10 4.21 7 3.61 7 3.41 8 3.28 10
Kwartel 3.56 8
PAN 3408 3.86 1 3.26 2 4.00 4 4.42 3 3.89 1 3.71 1 3.56 1
PAN 3434 3.40 12 3.18 4 3.85 7 4.34 5 3.69 5 3.48 7 3.29 9
PAN 3471 3.78 3 3.08 6 3.93 6 3.60 5 3.43 3
PAN 3492 3.76 11
Ratel 3.77 4
SST 015 3.79 2 3.04 10 4.10 3 4.35 4 3.82 4 3.64 3 3.42 4
SST 027 3.58 7 3.06 9 4.11 2 4.60 1 3.84 3 3.58 6 3.32 6
SST 047 3.37 14 2.97 11 3.85 8 3.40 10 3.17 11
SST 056 3.60 5 3.17 5 4.23 1 3.67 2 3.38 5
SST 087 3.39 13 3.20 3 3.30 8
SST 096 3.45 11
SST 57 4.00 9
SST 88 3.58 6 3.29 1 3.94 5 4.57 2 3.84 2 3.60 4 3.43 2
Tankwa 3.33 15 2.91 12 3.81 9 4.08 8 3.53 8 3.35 11 3.12 12
Average 3.56 3.11 3.92 4.22 3.73 3.53 3.33
LSDt(0,05) 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.08 0.09 0.11

24. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
Close the gap between on-farm yields and genetic potential of cultivars
Region Genetic Real (t/ha)
Potential
(t/ha)
Swartland 3,5 2,36
Northern Cape 8,46 6,9
Free State 2,47 1.68
Mpumalanga 6,31 5,6

25. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
Increase wheat productivity to 1%/year
• 1966 – 1979: 3,6% productivity growth per annum
High yielding semi-dwarf cultivars, improved cropping
Green Revolution
practices, favorable policies and financial support
• 1984 – 1994: 2,8% productivity growth/annum
• 1995 – 2005: 1,1% productivity growth/annum

26. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
Increase wheat productivity
Source: CIMMYT

27. Wheat yield and quality comparisons between Western
Cape and Western Australia 2011
Region Yield (ton/ha) Hectolitre mass (kg/hl) Protein (%)
Rûens 4.31 79.60 11.98
Swartland 3.56 78.79 11.93
Mean 3.94 79.19 11.95
Region Yield (ton/ha) Hectolitre mass (kg/hl) Protein (%)
Agzone 1 3.71 73.35 11.81
Agzone 2 2.84 73.93 10.49
Agzone 3 4.63 74.82 12.26
Agzone 4 2.35 75.57 11.38
Agzone 5 2.34 72.02 12.92
Mean 3.18 73.94 11.77

28. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
Balanced approach towards wheat quality vs wheat productivity
ARG AUS BRA CAN GER USA RSA
Protein 11.74 12.17 12.54 14.20 10.95 * 10.64 * 12.00
Hlm 78.8 83.9 77.6 79.0 81.2 78.2 77.6
Flour yield 73.9 * 74.5 70.2 * 74.6 75.5 73.1 * 75.7
Flour colour -1.2 -2.6 0.4 -1.8 -1.3 -1.3 -1.5
Farinogram
Water absorption 60.5 61.9 63.2 62.3 60.5 55.2 * 61.1
Dev. time 2.3 * 3.9 2.3 * 5.5 1.8 * 1.7 * 4.0
Alveogram
Dough strength 39.4 49.5 30.5 * 51.2 32.4 * 26.1 * 38.0
P/L 2.11 * 1.26 2.09 * 1.01 2.09 * 1.09 0.90
Mixogram
Peak time 4.0 * 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.4 4.0 * 2.6
100g Baking test
Loaf volume 764 * 833 785 * 956 715 * 729 * 902
Evaluation 3* 2 3* 2 3* 1 0
Deviates from SA release criteria Comply with SA release criteria

29. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
Maintain disease and pest surveys

30. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
Maintain disease and pest surveys
Distribution of Ug99-lineage Stem rust races in South Africa
2SA106 2SA107 2SA88+ SrMtlb

31. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
Maintain disease and pest surveys
Biotype distribution:
RWASA1-8%
RWASA2-30%
RWASA3-18%
No RWA found-24%
Not screened-19%

32. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
Maintain disease and pest surveys
Biotype distribution:
RWASA1-29%
RWASA2-2%
RWASA3-9%
No RWA found-48%
Not screened-9%

33. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
Extend the successes achieved with conservation agriculture to rest
of South Africa, including small holder farmers
• There was a dramatic change to CA in the winter rainfall area
over the last decade
• In 2002 an estimated 10% of wheat area under CA systems
• In 2012 an estimated 70% under CA
• Input costs decreased drastically, especially seeding rate and
nitrogen applications
• Biggest challenge in CA systems is herbicide resistance

34. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
Increased focus on the development of bio-insecticides in an
endeavour to lower input costs
• ARC-SGI currently curates the largest and most diverse
collection of entomopathogenic nematodes in South Africa
(>135 isolates)
• Two new species in the genus Steinernema currently being
described
• Research on the use of epn’s against soil-borne pests such as
false wireworm and cutworm currently underway
Infected adult of false wireworm
Gonocephalum simplex

35. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
Increased focus on the development of bio-insecticides in an
endeavour to lower input costs
• Myco-insecticide against African bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera
(prototype product in final year of field-testing before registration)
Infected larva Field trial 2011
• Myco-insecticide against oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi (vector of BYDV
in wheat under irrigated conditions)
• >500 isolates of Beauveria bassiana in ARC-SGI
collection; currently screening to identify most
virulent strain
Infected oat aphid

36. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/
food security
• Higher and stable yields especially in the Highveld production areas
• Drought/heat tolerance in the marginal, low input, low decision-
making areas
• Concentrate on the different nutrient and water-use efficiencies of
cultivars and production systems. Kg grain produced/ml water
• Lower input costs
• A diversified approach towards herbicide resistance
• Re-introduce higher levels of rust resistance in commercial cultivars

37. Interventions needed from National Government
• Focus on small-holder productivity
• Increase and continuously align capacity building with changing
needs
• Lobby Government support in an endeavour to attain wheat
security through at least 85% local production
• Access to a viable local wheat market and industry
• Government supported seed and drought insurance schemes
• Constant access to supply, demand, market and value-chain data

38. Conclusion
Profitable Wheat Production System
+
Supportive Government
+
Emphasis on local productions
+
Affordable Wheat Products
Wheat Secure Africa