Trends in wheat production and consumption in Sudan
Wheat for Food Security in Africa Conference Oct., 8-12, 2012 in Addis AbabaTrends in wheat production and consumption in SudanMohamed B. Elgali* and Rajaa H. MustafaDepartment of Agricultural Economics, University of Gezira,PO. Box 20, Medani, Sudan*Corresponding author: email@example.com
Contents: Introduction Methodology Results and discussion Conclusion and policy recommendations
INTRODUCTION The Sudan wheat situation is characterized by rapidgrowth in consumption, continuous and variable deficitbetween domestic need and local production. In thatrespect the national effort in increasing wheatproduction has been a priority. Sudan grows wheat in the irrigated sector in Gezira,Rahad and New Halfa schemes, in addition to a limitedarea in northern part of the Nile valley.
Gezira scheme represents the main area of wheat productionin Sudan. Yields have varied considerably, sometimes below 1MT/ha butmore often well above 2MT/ha, especially in recent years.Nevertheless, they are below the average for developingcountries as a whole by 25-30%. Water and climate have been a limiting factor to wheatproduction, since wheat is a winter crop, and the winter inSudan is too short. The temperature in most of Sudan is too warm to realize largeyields. In addition, wheat yields are very sensitive to plantingdates (Konardeas 2009).
Climatic criteria, especially temperature, deny large potentials for wheat to any part of Sudan. The growing season of wheat in the Gezira is from mid-October to mid- April, with temperatures, in 0 C, as follows: Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March AprilMean minimum 21.9 18.4 15.3 14.3 15.0 17.8 20.9Mean maximum 38.6 37.0 34.6 34.1 35.4 38.6 41.2Mean daily 30.3 27.7 25.0 24.2 25.2 28.2 31.0 Source: FAO
Trials at experimental stations by Nile Valley RegionalProgram and Agricultural research corporation show that: The maximum yields of semi-dwarf Mexican wheat varietiessown between mid-October and mid-November are 3.57tons/ha in the Northern region, 2.85 tons/ha in the Gezira and1.9 tons/ha in New Halfa; When planted between mid-November and mid-December. Finance wheat production is also a limiting factor.
Figure 2: Wheat production, consumption and imports 1980-2010 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000Tons 1,500,000 Production Imports 1,000,000 Consumption 500,000 0
Study objectiveThis paper analyzes wheat in Sudan by examining trendsin wheat production, consumption and trade in addition,it investigates trade policy and the potential of wheatproduction.
MethodologyThe methodology employed in this paper includes two main parts: The first part analysis past current and future situation of wheatindicators of area, production, yields, consumption, imports andself sufficiency with emphasis on trends of wheat production,consumption and imports. The second part analyzes the government Wheat trade policyand its impacts on consumer and producer surpluses.
Trend equationsThe following section represents the equations that estimates thetrend line regression of wheat production, consumption andimports. Production 𝐗 𝐏𝐫 = ∝+β Y (1) consumption 𝐗 𝐜𝐨𝐧 = ∝+β Y (2) Imports 𝐗 𝐢𝐦 = ∝+β Y (3) Where 𝑿 𝑷𝒓 is wheat production, 𝑿 𝒄𝒐𝒏 wheat consumption, 𝑿 𝒊𝒎 wheat imports and Y is time.
Data on area, production, yield and imports of wheat for theperiod 1980-2010 were collected from Ministry of Agricultureand Bank of Sudan annual reports. Consumption is estimated simply by adding domestic wheatproduction to imports. Trends estimate for wheat variables is up to the year 2025.
Government policyEstimation of impact of changes in import tariffs This analysis uses a single-commodity model of supply anddemand adapted from IFPRI to estimate the impact of variouschanges in the market for wheat as import substitutecommodity. It allows simulations of changes in import tariffs, as well aschanges in the world price, supply shifts, and changes inincome. The model simulates the effect of these changes onproduction, consumption, imports, and prices. It also generates estimates of the economic impact of thechange on consumers, producers, and the overall economy.
Figure 3 Supply, demand and welfare P D S u b PS+β PC c e PS f 0 qd qS Q
Supply Equation s i q ci * ( p ) s i i Where qis is the amount of wheat supplied ci is the supply calibration coefficient of wheat pis is the supply price of wheat i is the supply price elasticity of wheat
Demand Equation q bi * (p ) * I d i c ηi i μiWhere q id is the amount wheat demanded bi is the demand calibration coefficient of wheat pic is the demand price of wheat i is the demand price elasticity I is per capita income i is the income elasticity of wheat
Trends over the Past Three DecadesTable (1) Wheat indicators 1980-2010Indicator moment 1980-89 1990-99 2000-10 Minimum 48 141 91Area (1000 ha) Average 137 308 198 Maximum 486 462 307 Minimum 79 172 213Production (1000 Average 178.6 523.5 419.8tons) Maximum 247 838 669 Minimum 0.97 1.1 1.5Yield (ton/ha) Average 1.2 1.6 2.1 Maximum 1.7 2.2 2.4
Indicator moment 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 Minimum 504.1 729.9 1,156.8Consumption (1000 Average 743.5 1,083.7 1,770.8tons) Maximum 1,152.3 1,663.8 2,523.2 Minimum 286.1 276.9 824.8Imports (1000 tons) Average 570.6 547.5 1,328.0 Maximum 1,073.3 977.8 1,882.2Self sufficiency ratio % Minimum 6 19 17 Average 24 49 25 Maximum 43 69 36
Government policy and simulation resultsResults Before After % changeProduction (1000 tons) -15% 403,000 341,562Consumption (1000 tons) 12% 2,011,002 2,245,446Imports (1000 tons) 18% 1,608,002 1,903,883Tariff revenue (million US$) - -100% 119.64Autarky price (US$/ton) 0% 4,371 4,371Import parity price (US$/ton) -42% 176 101Price (US$/ton) -42% 176 101Price (Local currency/ton) -42% 1,053 607Change in consumer surplus 158.34 millionChange in producer surplus -27.70 millionChange in welfare for producers & 130.64 millionconsumersChange in tariff revenue -47.05 million
Production potentialSudan has constructed tow projects on the River Nile In the north where Marawe dam will irrigate around 0.3million hectares and also the Heightening of Rosaris dam on the Blue Nile which willprovide 1.2 million hectares of irrigated land.
CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS The research findings showed that wheat consumption inSudan is increasing at a rate higher than production. and theimports would grow accordingly. If Sudan continue to produce wheat at the current trend,the country might need to import around 2 million ton by2025 to meet its growing consumption.
Wheat yield have improved to reach 2.4 ton/ha, but itis still below the developing countries level. The policy of removing wheat importing tariffs;imposes a US$ 27.70 million cost on producers in theform of lower prices. On the other hand, the lower priceprovides benefits to consumers of wheat of US$ 158.34million.
In order to bridge wheat gab the government needs topromote its domestic production which is possible in thenorth where Marawe dam will irrigate around 0.3 millionhectares and also the heightening of Rosaris dam on theBlue Nile which will provide 1.2 million hectare of irrigatedland. country needs to attract FDI To secure financial fund forwheat production.