Third OECD-DOE Workshop: Unlocking finance and investment in offshore wind power and energy efficiency in public buildings in the Philippines, 6-7 March 2024, Makati, Philippines

1. Electricity Grids and Secure
Energy Transitions
7 March 2024, Manila
Camille Paillard, Energy Analyst, Renewable Integration
and Secure Electricity, IEA

2. IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 2
Today, there are 80 million km of transmission and distribution wires
Southeast Asia constitutes 6% of global lengths, but 12% of infrastructure added in the last decade.
52% of infrastructure added in the last decade was in Southeast Asia + China + India.
Electricity transmission and distribution lengths by age and country/region, 2021

3. IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 3
To meet announced targets, grids need to continue to grow rapidly
By 2030, Southeast Asia grows 35% from today’s level of grid lengths, and almost doubles from 2030 to 2050.
Similar growth rates are expected in India and China, leading to competition for sourcing grid components.
Installed line length, transmission and distribution, by region in the Announced Pledge Scenario (million km)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
United States European
Union
Japan Other
advanced
economies
Southeast Asia India Africa China Other EMDEs
Million
km
Total 2021 Total 2030 Total 2050

4. IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 4
In SEA, grid investments needs to accelerate to keep up with transitions
Globally, investment in renewables has been growing over the past 5 years while grids have stayed stagnant.
In Southeast Asia, investment in renewables has been relatively stable while grids appear to be shrinking.
Grid investment in Southeast Asia by scenario
Clean energy investment in Southeast Asia 2015-2030
(STEPS= Stated Energy Policies Scenario)
Source: WEO 2023 (IEA)
Source: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022 (IEA)

5. IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 5
Solar PV Wind Bioenergy Hydro
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
GW
Capacity of advanced stage projects in queues
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
Advanced stage projects
Grids are becoming a bottleneck for energy transitions
We estimate that there are at least 1500 GW of wind and solar projects around the world in advanced stage of
development waiting in connection queues
.
Capacity of renewable energy projects in connection queues
United States Europe
Japan Others
Advanced stage Early stage/unlikely
GW

6. IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 6
Electricity grid development is complex, involves many stakeholders and can take many years,
Long lead times for grids call for advanced planning
requiring decisions well in advance to support electrification and renewables that can be deployed more quickly
Decision timelines to complete typical projects by 2035
Extra-high voltage transmission
High voltage transmission
Distribution line
EV charging
Wind
Solar PV
China
India
Advanced
economies
2035
2023 2030

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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Gt
2010 2030 2050
Power sector
CO2 emissions
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Change in electricity generation
from 2020 to 2050
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2010 2030 2050
Solar PV and wind share
of electricity generation
Clean energy transitions depend on robust electricity grids
and lead to greater use of coal and natural gas, raising fossil fuel import bills by USD 500 billion and CO2 emissions
Impacts of failing to accelerate grid investment and modernisation
Coal Natural gas
APS
Grid Delay
Case
Failing to step up the pace of grid investment and modernisation would stifle the growth of renewables,

8. IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 8
A call to action
▪ Bring planning up to date – Strategic and integrated planning across sectors
▪ Unlock investment – Improve how grid companies are remunerated
▪ Address barriers – Regulatory overhaul towards proactive grid development
▪ Secure supply chains – Firm & transparent project pipelines to enable resilient supply chains
▪ Leverage digitalisation – Digitalise infrastructure and advance distributed resources
▪ Build a skilled workforce – Create a pool of talent with digital and electricity skills

9. Page 9
IEA 2023. All rights reserved.