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IEA World Energy Outlook 2020 launch-presentation

IEA Flagship World Energy Outlook- 2020

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IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
World Energy Outlook 2020
Paris, 13 October 2020
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Covid-19 and the energy outlook
• In an extraordinary year, 2 key questions:
- How might the pandemic (and its aftermath) reshape the energy sector?
- Does this disruption help, or hinder, the prospects for rapid clean energy transitions?
• Focus on pathways out of today’s crisis over the next 10 years, amid 2 key uncertainties
- Duration and severity of the pandemic and its economic impacts
- Response from energy policy makers and the sustainability of the recovery
• Scenario-based approach more important than ever, to examine:
- The direction we are heading, depending on the outlook for public health & the economy
- What would be required to reach net-zero emissions
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
A shock to the energy system
Bringing the pandemic under control in 2021 would allow energy demand to return to pre-crisis levels by
early 2023.
Average annual GDP growth
(2019-30)
Energy demand
90
100
110
120
WEO-2019
Stated Policies
Scenario
2019 2025 2030
Delayed Recovery
Scenario
2023
Index(2019=100)
A longer pandemic would usher in the slowest decade of energy demand growth for a century
1%
2%
3%
4%
WEO-2019 STEPS DRS
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Impacts vary widely by fuel & technology
renewables lead the rebound while coal never gets back to
pre-crisis levels
Change in primary energy demand, 2019-2020
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Modern renewables
Mtoe
After a 5% drop in energy demand in 2020,
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Impacts vary widely by fuel & technology
renewables lead the rebound while coal never gets back to
pre-crisis levels
Change in primary energy demand, 2019-20202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Modern renewables
Mtoe
After a 5% drop in energy demand in 2020,
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Modern renewables
Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Impacts vary widely by fuel & technology
renewables lead the rebound while coal never gets back to
pre-crisis levels;
Change in primary energy demand, 2019-20202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Modern renewables
Mtoe
After a 5% drop in energy demand in 2020,
a delayed recovery puts energy into slow motion, prolonging today’s overhang of supply
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Modern renewables
Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)Delayed Recovery Scenario (DRS)

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IEA World Energy Outlook 2020 launch-presentation

  • 1. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. World Energy Outlook 2020 Paris, 13 October 2020
  • 2. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Covid-19 and the energy outlook • In an extraordinary year, 2 key questions: - How might the pandemic (and its aftermath) reshape the energy sector? - Does this disruption help, or hinder, the prospects for rapid clean energy transitions? • Focus on pathways out of today’s crisis over the next 10 years, amid 2 key uncertainties - Duration and severity of the pandemic and its economic impacts - Response from energy policy makers and the sustainability of the recovery • Scenario-based approach more important than ever, to examine: - The direction we are heading, depending on the outlook for public health & the economy - What would be required to reach net-zero emissions
  • 3. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. A shock to the energy system Bringing the pandemic under control in 2021 would allow energy demand to return to pre-crisis levels by early 2023. Average annual GDP growth (2019-30) Energy demand 90 100 110 120 WEO-2019 Stated Policies Scenario 2019 2025 2030 Delayed Recovery Scenario 2023 Index(2019=100) A longer pandemic would usher in the slowest decade of energy demand growth for a century 1% 2% 3% 4% WEO-2019 STEPS DRS
  • 4. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Impacts vary widely by fuel & technology renewables lead the rebound while coal never gets back to pre-crisis levels Change in primary energy demand, 2019-2020 -600 -300 0 300 600 900 Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Modern renewables Mtoe After a 5% drop in energy demand in 2020,
  • 5. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Impacts vary widely by fuel & technology renewables lead the rebound while coal never gets back to pre-crisis levels Change in primary energy demand, 2019-20202021202220232024202520262027202820292030 -600 -300 0 300 600 900 Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Modern renewables Mtoe After a 5% drop in energy demand in 2020, -600 -300 0 300 600 900 Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Modern renewables Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
  • 6. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Impacts vary widely by fuel & technology renewables lead the rebound while coal never gets back to pre-crisis levels; Change in primary energy demand, 2019-20202021202220232024202520262027202820292030 -600 -300 0 300 600 900 Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Modern renewables Mtoe After a 5% drop in energy demand in 2020, a delayed recovery puts energy into slow motion, prolonging today’s overhang of supply -600 -300 0 300 600 900 Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Modern renewables Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)Delayed Recovery Scenario (DRS)
  • 7. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Without a larger shift in policies, no rapid decline in oil Global oil demand by scenario In the STEPS & the DRS, oil demand reaches a plateau in the 2030s as transport fuels are no longer a reliable engine for growth; a stronger push for efficiency, electrification and recycling will be needed for oil use to fall 2015 2020 2025 2030 80 90 100 110mb/d Reaching 2019 levels WEO-2019 STEPS DRS Sustainable Development Scenario
  • 8. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Diversification: the critical watchword for oil and gas producers A lower price and demand outlook, due in the near term to Covid-19, adds to the strains on countries that rely on oil & gas revenues. Today’s value of oil and gas production to 2040 Oil Gas Oil Gas Oil Gas 0 5 10 15 20 25 WEO-2019 Stated Policies Scenario Sustainable Development Scenario Trillion dollars -24% -34% The pressure for changes in strategies & business models is even stronger in the SDS
  • 9. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Solar PV is now the cheapest source of electricity in most countries in part due to low cost financing and is set to triple before 2030 under current and proposed policies, with the potential to grow much faster 0 4 000 8 000 TWh Solar PV is now the cheapest source of electricity in most countries in part due to low cost financing and is set to triple before 2030 under current and proposed policies Solar PV is becoming the ‘new king’ of electricity Change in global electricity generation -8 000 -4 000 Coal Gas Other low carbon Wind Solar PV 2000-2019 SDS STEPS 2019-2040 Coal Gas Other low carbon Wind Solar PV -8 000 -4 000 0 4 000 8 000 Coal Gas Other low carbon Wind Solar PV TWh 2000-2019 STEPS SDS 2019-2040
  • 10. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. -4% -3% -2% -1% -5% 4 8 12 16 Millionkilometres 20 Electricity networks are the key to electricity security, unlocking flexibility from power plants, storage affordable and secure, however depressed revenues are creating risks for timely investment Electricity transformations require a step up in grids expansion to ensure that electricity remains reliable, affordable and secure Grids are the bedrock of a clean & secure electricity future Change in grid operator revenue First half of 2020 Grids expansion United States GermanyChina2020-2030 STEPS 2009-2019
  • 11. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. 10 20 30 40 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Gt CO2 The world is still far from putting emissions into decisive decline Global emissions are set to bounce back more slowly than after the financial crisis of 2008-2009, but the world is still a long way from a sustainable recovery China 2060 net-zero statement Net-zero in 2050 STEPS Full implementation of 2050 net-zero pledges (e.g. EU, UK, New Zealand and others) SDS
  • 12. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Walk or cycle short trips Install batteries and solar at home Turn down air conditioning Upgrade home heating to heat pumps Retrofit homes Buy energy efficientappliances Drive more slowly Increase recycling Work from home Fly less often Expandnuclearpower& developSMRs Equip with CCUS Deploy solar Buildwind onshore and offshore Extendand digitalise gridsLow-emissions shippingInnovation Fuel-cell trucks batteries & electrolysers Widespread digitalisation Eliminate flaring Improve product efficiency Advanced biofuel production Low-carbon gases Modernise hydropower Improve bankability of efficiency investments Manage risks for new technologies Invest in innovation Investment guidelines Increase investment in renewables Develop new financial tools to unlock private capital Align portfolios with low-emissions activities Net-zero by 2050 demands unprecedented efforts over the next decade Net zero energy emissions in 2050 would require a set of dramatic additional actions over the next 10 years. Energy companies, citizens and investors all need to be on board – with unprecedented contributions to make Clean electricity investment Electric cars Hydrogen Finance Government policies
  • 13. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Walk or cycle short trips Install batteries and solar at home Turn down air conditioning Upgrade home heating to heat pumps Retrofit homes Buy energy efficientappliances Drive more slowly Increase recycling Work from home Fly less often Expandnuclearpower& developSMRs Equip with CCUS Deploy solar Buildwind onshore and offshore Extendand digitalise gridsLow-emissions shippingInnovation Fuel-cell trucks batteries & electrolysers Widespread digitalisation Eliminate flaring Improve product efficiency Advanced biofuel production Low-carbon gases Modernise hydropower Improve bankability of efficiency investments Manage risks for new technologies Invest in innovation Investment guidelines Increase investment in renewables Develop new financial tools to unlock private capital Align portfolios with low-emissions activities Net-zero by 2050 demands unprecedented efforts over the next decade Net zero energy emissions in 2050 would require a set of dramatic additional actions over the next 10 years. Energy companies, citizens and investors all need to be on board – with unprecedented contributions to make 3801.6380 billion $ billion $trillion $2030 2020 Clean electricity investment 2.5502.5 million million cars sold2030 2020 Electric cars 0.45400.45 Mt Mt2030 2020 Hydrogen Finance Government policies
  • 14. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. 10 20 30 40 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Gt CO2 Existing infrastructure alone could lead to a temperature rise of 1.65 °C Using existing energy infrastructure as in the past would “lock in” emissions for decades to come; the associated 1.65 °C global average temperature increase would put all climate goals out of reach Existing energy infrastructure +1.65 °C Global average temperature increase Past Future Other Power Industry
  • 15. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Conclusions • The pandemic will leave lasting scars, but it is still open whether it represents a setback for a more secure and sustainable energy system, or a catalyst that accelerates the pace of change • Renewables have taken off, with solar leading the way. But a slowdown in improving access to electricity and a risk of under-investment in grids are warning signs for the future • The crisis has squeezed oil and gas revenues and investment, forcing producers to reassess their strategies to align with technology and policy shifts • Getting to net zero means ramping up clean technology deployment while continuing to reduce costs, especially through innovation for hydrogen and other low-carbon fuels, battery storage & CCUS • There are no short cuts; only profound changes, guided by good policies, can deliver a better energy future. This is a choice – for citizens, investors, companies, but most of all for governments