Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

1605 new nokia smartphone deck

443 views

Published on

A few slides to accompany my blog post on the recent Nokia licensing deals

Published in: Mobile
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

1605 new nokia smartphone deck

  1. 1. The New Nokia Ged Carroll renaissancechambara.jp
  2. 2. The New Nokia February 9, 2011 – Stephen Elop’s burning platform memo goes public. Nokia’s smartphone steps off a cliff. Carrier relationships are burned as they were committed to Maemo operating system to replace Symbian. Windows is used instead, built-in Skype alienates carrier relationships. A brief flirtation with Android showed up the poor sales performance of its Windows handsets. Rounds of cuts and market share losses forced Nokia to sell its handset business to Microsoft. May 19, 2016 – Nokia feature phones and smartphone business is sold to a combined Chinese / Finnish business consortium. The market is now very different. What chance do they have?
  3. 3. Why Microsoft got rid of ‘Nokia’ 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Microsoft OS % of smartphone market Microsoft OS % of smartphone market Data: TomiAhonen Consulting (May 2016)
  4. 4. The latent value of the Nokia brand
  5. 5. Nokia brand Using Google as a proxy • Decline in brand interest over past 12 months within mobile phone category 37% • Nokia still has comparable brand equity to the likes of Motorola and BlackBerry • It’s level of brand equity looks competitive with value-oriented Chinese brands • It would be difficult to move Nokia into the premium Android sector without significant brand investment • Which would negate the primary reason for purchase
  6. 6. Google searches as a proxy for residual brand equity 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 May24 May31 June7 June14 June21 June28 July5 July12 July19 July26 Aug2 Aug9 Aug16 Aug23 Aug30 Sep6 Sep13 Sep20 Sep27 Oct4 Oct11 Oct18 Oct25 Nov1 Nov8 Nov15 Nov22 Nov29 Dec6 Dec13 Dec20 Dec27 Jan3 Jan10 Jan17 Jan23 Jan30 Jan31 Feb7 Feb14 Feb21 Feb28 Mar6 Mar13 Mar20 Mar27 Apr3 Apr10 Apr17 Apr24 May1 May8 May15 Relative interest over past 12 months (mobile phone category,Google Trends) Nokia Huawei Honor Lenovo OnePlus Oppo Motorola BlackBerry HTC
  7. 7. Nokia still has similar brand equity to other legacy brands 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 May24 May31 June7 June14 June21 June28 July5 July12 July19 July26 Aug2 Aug9 Aug16 Aug23 Aug30 Sep6 Sep13 Sep20 Sep27 Oct4 Oct11 Oct18 Oct25 Nov1 Nov8 Nov15 Nov22 Nov29 Dec6 Dec13 Dec20 Dec27 Jan3 Jan10 Jan17 Jan23 Jan30 Jan31 Feb7 Feb14 Feb21 Feb28 Mar6 Mar13 Mar20 Mar27 Apr3 Apr10 Apr17 Apr24 May1 May8 May15 Relative interest over past 12 months (mobile phone category,Google Trends) Nokia Motorola BlackBerry
  8. 8. Brand equity is comparable to ‘value’ smartphone brands 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 May24 May31 June7 June14 June21 June28 July5 July12 July19 July26 Aug2 Aug9 Aug16 Aug23 Aug30 Sep6 Sep13 Sep20 Sep27 Oct4 Oct11 Oct18 Oct25 Nov1 Nov8 Nov15 Nov22 Nov29 Dec6 Dec13 Dec20 Dec27 Jan3 Jan10 Jan17 Jan23 Jan30 Jan31 Feb7 Feb14 Feb21 Feb28 Mar6 Mar13 Mar20 Mar27 Apr3 Apr10 Apr17 Apr24 May1 May8 May15 Relative interest over past 12 months (mobile phone category,Google Trends) Nokia Honor OnePlus
  9. 9. Doesn’t stack up so well against Greater China premium smartphone brands 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 May24 May31 June7 June14 June21 June28 July5 July12 July19 July26 Aug2 Aug9 Aug16 Aug23 Aug30 Sep6 Sep13 Sep20 Sep27 Oct4 Oct11 Oct18 Oct25 Nov1 Nov8 Nov15 Nov22 Nov29 Dec6 Dec13 Dec20 Dec27 Jan3 Jan10 Jan17 Jan23 Jan30 Jan31 Feb7 Feb14 Feb21 Feb28 Mar6 Mar13 Mar20 Mar27 Apr3 Apr10 Apr17 Apr24 May1 May8 May15 Relative interest over past 12 months (mobile phone category,Google Trends) Nokia Huawei Lenovo Oppo HTC
  10. 10. Smartphone market data
  11. 11. The new Nokia will be forged a brutal crucible • Saturation and lengthening replacement times in developed markets • Steep decline in growth of smartphones • Move towards customers who can require lower price points • On top of hyper-competition driving razor thin margins and little chance of differentiation in the Android eco-system • At first glance, the New Nokia has little different to offer
  12. 12. Global smartphone ownership 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Data from Pew ResearchSpring 2015 Global Attitudes survey Q71 & Q72 % of survey respondents who claim to own a smartphone
  13. 13. Global mobile device units – moving from growth to mature market status 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sales units (millions) units (millions) tablets units (millions) smartphones Data: GfK/CTA Digital World via Consumer Technology Association ‘Technology World Tour’ by Steve Koenig January 2016
  14. 14. Global mobile device units – declining growth -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sales units (YoY % change) units (YoY % change) tablets units (YoY % change) smartphones Data: GfK/CTA Digital World via Consumer Technology Association ‘Technology World Tour’ by Steve Koenig January 2016
  15. 15. Global smartphone units by geography – lower margins available in emerging markets 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sales units (YoY % change) Developed market (% units) Emerging markets (% units) Data: GfK/CTA Digital World via Consumer Technology Association ‘Technology World Tour’ by Steve Koenig January 2016
  16. 16. Global mobile device ASP (USD) – steady decline in progress 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average selling price Tablet USD Smartphone USD Data: GfK/CTA Digital World via Consumer Technology Association ‘Technology World Tour’ by Steve Koenig January 2016
  17. 17. Global technology sales (revenue) geographic split – markets where the Nokia name still has brand equity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Revenue USD (% split) Developed markets Developing markets Data: GfK/CTA Digital World via Consumer Technology Association ‘Technology World Tour’ by Steve Koenig January 2016
  18. 18. The best days of smartphone growth are over -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Smartphone and tablet % growth Smartphones Tablets
  19. 19. Smartphone market opportunity The smartphone eco-system is showing declines in handset price, profit margins and hyper-competition from Chinese brands. Market pressures have already driven some component manufacturers to the wall. Looking at the PC industry as an analogue, the next stage of innovation will be around process innovation – increasing profits by making phones more cost effective to manufacture. In the case of the PC it was globalisation, moving manufacturing to the Far East. For smartphones there are three opportunities: • Automate more of the manufacturing – slim phones are hand-assembled • Cut the channel out to deliver more of the profits to the manufacturer • Change the business model to the ‘Gillette model’ – sell ancillary services for margin to the user, or sell audiences to companies through advertising
  20. 20. About me Amazon author page: amzn.to/1SeO5Il LinkedIn page: linkedin.com/in/gedcarroll About: renaissancechambara.jp/about Blog: renaissancechambara.jp Email address found here: scr.im/renaissance Twitter account: @r_c Sina Weibo: renaissancechambara WeChat
  21. 21. thank you | 谢谢 | míle buíochas! | 감사합니다 | danke | ありがとう | merci | спасибо | cám ơn | whakawhetai | takk | ขอขอบคุณคุณ | terima kasih | σας ευχαριστώ | grazie | ‫|ﺷﻜﺮا‬ þakka þér | !"!" #$!%&'$ | kiitos | ந"றி | gracias

×