National Security & National Interests – Implications


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National Security & National Interests – Implications

  1. 1. National Security & National Interests – Implications & Response Jan 2009 M. Rajaram
  2. 2. Agenda National Security & National Interests – Definitions & Dimensions Trends & Responses – A Discussion on India’s responses over the years India’s Neighbourhood – Situation Analysis & India’s Options
  3. 3. National Security & National Interests – Definitions & Dimensions
  4. 4. What is National Security? <ul><li>A multi-dimensional view and response towards protecting National Interests against threats, both internal and external </li></ul><ul><li>Dynamic and evolving as a derivative of National Interests which in itself is an evolving derivative of National Strength </li></ul><ul><li>Underpins and guarantees the pursuit of National Objectives in a competing international arena </li></ul>
  5. 5. What is National Interest? <ul><li>Any issue that has the potential to directly impact the pursuit of National Goals can be classified as an area of National Interest </li></ul><ul><li>Has 5 major dimensions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Geo - Political </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Military </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Socio-cultural </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Science & Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><li>National Interests therefore stem from the evolving National goals in each of these dimensions and is also a reflection of the relative National Strengths with regard to these dimensions </li></ul>
  6. 6. National Security Paradigm National Security Economic Geo Political Military Socio-Cultural National Goals National Interests National Strength Science & Technology Science & Technology Science & Technology Science & Technology
  7. 7. Trends & Responses – A Discussion on India’s responses over the years
  8. 8. Dimensions- Trends & Responses <ul><li>Geo-Political Trends </li></ul><ul><li>Emergence of Multi-polar world </li></ul><ul><li>Global Economic Re-adjustment </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing number of flash points </li></ul><ul><li>Competition for Energy </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge and access to Knowledge as currencies of power </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing Neighbourhood turbulence and active internal subversion by external powers </li></ul><ul><li>Geo-Political Responses </li></ul><ul><li>Willingness to take leadership roles and seize global opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>Inclusive and domestic base for economic growth </li></ul><ul><li>Building capability to project power and defend interests </li></ul><ul><li>Diversify, de-risk and broad base energy sources </li></ul><ul><li>Establish leadership in key technologies and science </li></ul><ul><li>Control neighbourhood turbulence through more realistic approach and recognise the threat from internal subversions </li></ul>
  9. 9. 1948 Situation Map
  10. 10. India’s Outer Buffers-Caroe
  11. 11. Caroe’s Seven Power Circles
  12. 12. Dimensions- Trends & Responses <ul><li>Economic Trends </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing use of economic warfare through control of markets </li></ul><ul><li>Use of economic levers to influence policy </li></ul><ul><li>Denial of comparative advantages through control of economic arrangements </li></ul><ul><li>Creation of economic dependency through control of capital and investments </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing Urbanization and pressure on Agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Pressure on access to markets and global trade </li></ul><ul><li>Economic Responses </li></ul><ul><li>Building resilience through calibrated engagement to global structures </li></ul><ul><li>Balance need for capital and control of economic national assets </li></ul><ul><li>Proactively defend interest in multilateral forums </li></ul><ul><li>Create conditions for counter dependency by improving capability to take over assets abroad </li></ul><ul><li>No clear answer to pressure on agriculture and increasing urbanization </li></ul><ul><li>Getting involved in multilateral forums and key groupings </li></ul>
  13. 13. Oil Pipelines from Central Asia
  14. 14. Of the total 54 million urban households in India, 31% are in SEC A and B categories representing a large market Urban Households - Socio-Economic Categories (%) : 25.79 m : 11.54 m : 4.52 m : 5.23 m : 4.30 m : 2.76 m Total Urban Households: 54 million
  15. 15. Dimensions- Trends & Responses <ul><li>Socio-cultural Trends </li></ul><ul><li>Use of NGOs and lobbies to distort or disturb achievement of national projects </li></ul><ul><li>Change in demographic profile of India </li></ul><ul><li>Collapse of Agriculture – the silent time bomb </li></ul><ul><li>Cultural “dhimmitude” as a weapon of control </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing Regionalism </li></ul><ul><li>Vote banking and its implications </li></ul><ul><li>Use of media to distort public opinion </li></ul><ul><li>Socio-cultural Responses </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring of funds and end-usage </li></ul><ul><li>Providing for the change in demographics through increased spending on key areas </li></ul><ul><li>National Agriculture Policy being revisited </li></ul><ul><li>Backlash to the politics of appeasement being felt and emergence of alternative national discourse – albeit still a fringe activity </li></ul><ul><li>Major threats that have not been addressed </li></ul>
  16. 16. India’s population is young with a vast majority (61%) being under the age of 30 Source: Tata Statistical Outline of India, Marketing White Book 2006 Age-Wise Distribution Of Population Rural Urban Population distribution Male (Outer Circle) Female (Inner Circle)
  17. 17. Dimensions- Trends & Responses <ul><li>Military Trends </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing use of RMA and integrated theatres </li></ul><ul><li>Capability to fight multi-theatre wars with non-state and para state entities </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear backdrop and Nuclear blackmail </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing sophistication of internal threats </li></ul><ul><li>Need for power projection over larger areas </li></ul><ul><li>Military use of space </li></ul><ul><li>Dependence on foreign supply of arms </li></ul><ul><li>Military Responses </li></ul><ul><li>Increased induction of “Force Multipliers” in the Indian Armed Forces </li></ul><ul><li>Integration of Services along theatres of operation format </li></ul><ul><li>Development of Triad, Development of “Cold Start” doctrines to counter nuclear threats </li></ul><ul><li>Need for raising more state level internal security forces has been recognised </li></ul><ul><li>Increased joint operations across spheres of influence to enable power projections </li></ul><ul><li>Creation of Aerospace commands, creation of assets </li></ul><ul><li>Privatization enabled to increase indeginisation </li></ul>
  18. 18. Modern Great Game
  19. 19. India’s Neighbourhood – Situation Analysis & India’s Options Afghanistan
  20. 20. Natoization of Afghanistan <ul><li>US invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11 </li></ul><ul><li>US needed NATO troops to takeover ISAF while engaged in Iraq </li></ul><ul><li>NATO and US troops under constant attack from Taliban forces sheltered in FATA/ WANA regions of Pakistan </li></ul>
  21. 21. Indian Role in Afghanistan <ul><li>India always was interested in Afghanistan </li></ul><ul><li>Before 9/11 supported Ahmed Shah Masood and his Northern Alliance </li></ul><ul><li>Supported the Hamid Karzai govt with civilian assistance to rebuild Afghanistan </li></ul><ul><li>Reopened the consulates in Jalalabad, Peshawar and Kandahar </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Indian Embassy building bombed. Most likely ISI supported terrorists </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Built the road from Zaranj to Kabul providing the alternate land route to one controlled by Taliban </li></ul><ul><li>Assistance ~ $1Billion and is the largest amount outside US. </li></ul><ul><li>Stable Afghanistan is a national security interest of India </li></ul>
  22. 22. Afghanistan in Pak sights <ul><li>The top priority of US for next two administrations will be war in Afghanistan </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Future of NATO </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Containment strategy towards Russia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Grand ideas like unilateralism and war as diplomatic tool </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Pakistan has realized that if it chooses it can make matters worse for the US in Afghanistan </li></ul><ul><ul><li>NATO jugular in Pak grip </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Pakistani troops in border areas keep the Taliban in check at same time keeps the US from retaliating </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>75% of all supplies through Pakistan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>US unwilling and unable to use Russian or Iranian route for supplies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More SF ops in borderlands is invitation to future disaster </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. Afghanistan in Pak sights <ul><li>US experts Reidel etc suggest that one way to win Pakistani cooperation is to make India “settle” Kashmir </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Five different agencies formulate US policy on Afghanistan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>White House, State dept, Pentagon, Central Command and CIA </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Durand Line and Pak’s Afghan policy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Eight million Pashtuns straddle the Durand Line </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Past Pak leaders have tried to formalize the Durand line </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unless Afghanistan formalizes the Durand Line, Pakistan is in jeopardy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>However formalization divides the Pashtuns for ever even after the end of colonialism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A new Afghan national Army (134K) will be a check on Pakistan as it will be mostly Tajik due to demographics. More Tajiks live in Afghanistan then in Tajikistan. Just as more Pashtuns live in Pakistan than in Afghanistan </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Not clear what is driving the US experts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Aim at keeping India unsettled? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aim to keep India from pursuing her Central Asian objectives and energy sources? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aim to keep India from joining the SCO powers to control Central Asia heartland? </li></ul></ul>India needs to watch the situation and be ready to counter any moves
  24. 24. India’s Neighbourhood – Situation Analysis & India’s Options Pakistan
  25. 25. Economic Crisis <ul><li>Since 9/11 US has provided $10B as aid to Pakistan : CSIS study </li></ul><ul><li>Despite all that Pakistan faces an economic crisis due to oil price rise and collapse of Pakistani rupee </li></ul><ul><li>US, China and KSA have refused bilateral aid and prefer multi-lateral agencies to aid and restructure Pakistani economy </li></ul><ul><li>IMF Agrees to $7.6 Billion Loan to Pakistan </li></ul>
  26. 26. US Elections and Pakistan <ul><li>2008 US Elections are a key milestone in US-Pak relations. </li></ul><ul><li>Democrats want to disengage from Iraq and Afghanistan </li></ul><ul><li>Obama Transition team has published position that the road to Afghanistan is through Pakistan which needs a settlement with India on Kashmir </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bruce Reidel, John Podesta Center for American Progress </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Unhelpful as J&K is on its way to normalcy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will rejuvenate Pak inspired terrorism in J&K </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pak is on its way to disintegration and collapse and throwing Kashmir into the mix is unhelpful to the people of Kashmir. </li></ul></ul>
  27. 27. Western Alternative plans for Pakistan remapping <ul><li>Bernard Lewis </li></ul><ul><li>Ralph Peters </li></ul><ul><li>Pashtun - Durand Line </li></ul><ul><li>Pashtunistan Billboard map </li></ul>
  28. 28. Bernard Lewis Plan <ul><li>Truncates Pakistan </li></ul><ul><li>Splits Pashtun areas and Baluchistan </li></ul><ul><li>Keeps Sind and Karachi with Pakjab </li></ul>
  29. 29. Ralph Peters <ul><li>Similar to Bernard Lewis Plan </li></ul>
  30. 30. Pashtun Plan-I <ul><li>Creates greater Paktunistan including parts of Afghanistan </li></ul><ul><li>Keeps Sindh and West Punjab together </li></ul>
  31. 31. New Pashtunistan Billboards <ul><li>More realistic as it covers all Pashtun speaking lands </li></ul><ul><li>Even Keeps Sindh and Pakjab together </li></ul><ul><li>Separates Northern Areas of Afghanistan </li></ul>
  32. 32. Indian Claim in 1947 <ul><li>Note the border of greater Punjab is East of Indus and includes Bhawalpur </li></ul><ul><li>Sindh is separate and removes Karachi from Pakjab </li></ul>
  33. 33. Most Likely
  34. 34. Indian Options For PIP <ul><ul><li>Crackdown on terrorism in J&K and SIMI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reduces the million mutinies inside India </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>UN presence in Afghanistan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Provides diplomatic cover for Indian troop presence in Afghanistan </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Independent command in Iraq w/Iraq invitation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Provides security for rebuilding Iraq and bringing it back to community of nations </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Presence will reduce the operating space for KSA and Pakistan in OIC and Sunni states </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduction of ISI as its great game tool </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reduce numbers as it coincides with US objectives in Afghanistan </li></ul></ul></ul>PIP= Peaceful Implosion of Pakistan
  35. 35. Indian Perspective <ul><li>The loss of Kandahar by Akbar in 1588 was the death blow of the Mughals as they were finished in less than 150 years after that. </li></ul><ul><li>The frontier areas were allowed to go under Persian influence and led to the Durranis taking over Afghanistan with severe consequences to mainland India. </li></ul><ul><li>Ranjit Singh created the buffer state and the English got hold of those areas after the Anglo-Sikh Wars. Durand line was created after the Anglo-Afghan wars and formalized the de-facto buffer created due to Ranjit Singh's efforts. </li></ul><ul><li>To support Pashtun recovery of Durand line will bring the frontier back to the outer rim of Indian core lands. </li></ul><ul><li>Pashtuns should be shown to recover their lost lands from the Iranians/Persians. Better yet be satisfied with what they have. </li></ul><ul><li>Another argument is the Sarkari Pashtuns on the eastern side of Durand lines are the tribes that sided with Aurangazeb and being the successor state it is India that should look out for them eventually. Frontier Gandhi's debt has to be repaid. He was let down badly as we didn’t understand nor had the capability to support him in 1947. </li></ul>
  36. 36. Conclusions <ul><li>The rise of Pakiban is erasing the Durand line. What we are seeing is the gradual failure of two states- Pakistan and Afghanistan. </li></ul><ul><li>In Afghanistan elections are slated in 2009. If the Taliban ensure reduced Pashutn participation it will lead to a default Northern Alliance Tajik leadership which will unite all Pashtuns(sarkari and non-sarkari, Ghilzai and Durrani)) under the Taliban black flag. </li></ul><ul><li>So any way one looks at it 2009 is critical year for that area. </li></ul>
  37. 37. Prognosis <ul><li>A new &quot;northern alliance&quot;, with covert material support from Iran and Russia, with Indian tacit approval & &quot;peaceful&quot; participation on the ground, will likely begin a new & successful &quot;jehad&quot; against US/NATO forces in Afghanistan. In fact, a long term US/NATO presence in Afghanistan is probably the last hope of the Pakis to keep their artificial &quot;country&quot; together. </li></ul><ul><li>But Russian/Iranian supported bleeding of US/NATO forces in Afghanistan will drive them out in a lot less time than the Soviets held out. </li></ul><ul><li>And in the subsequent obvious conflict between opposing Jihads (Taliban from the south and new NA from the north), the Taliban will finally bleed to death, putting Afghanistan squarely in Russian (& Indian) orbit. That should also begin the long delayed unraveling of the artificial construct otherwise known as Paki satan. </li></ul><ul><li>As usual, and contrary to Paki high expectations, China will intrude minimally in this process. </li></ul><ul><li>What matters is that with retreat from Afghanistan, and also from Iraq (foregone conclusion), US/NATO will find itself in an unusual (for it) defensive mode. </li></ul><ul><li>The consequences for India, while full of cautionary circumstances, will be nothing but fruitful. </li></ul>
  38. 38. Prognosis Continued <ul><li>The Pakiban and Taliban phenomenon is really an Islamized Pashtun nationalism at its core. If one maps the areas in Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan it is very obvious that it’s all in the Pashtun areas. The Pahstun has grabbed Islamization as a substitute for thwarted and suppressed nationalism. </li></ul><ul><li>This phenomenon is not an isolated one in history. Islam provides politico-religious milieu for suppressed nationalism throughout its history. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>the Arab tribes that burst out into the Middle East the first hundred years after advent of Islam. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the Vandals of North Africa who were left out of the Roman Christian mission who became Islamized and swept Spain or Al-Andalus. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Turks of Central Asia who created the Ottoman Empire and the Sultanates all over Middle East to India in the medieval period. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>An Islamized Pashtun state will at a minimum straddle the Durand line and could have a zone of influence till the west bank of Indus. The Tajiks in Afghanistan will seek to merge with their brethern. and so will the Uzbeks. The Shite Afghans around Herat will have to join Iran for safety. </li></ul><ul><li>However everytime a new Islamic state is established it leads to spillover in its immediate neighborhood and farther if it gets too powerful. Looking at the past it is possible to predict the course of spread of such Islamized nationalism- the neighboring states and regions will get the first impact of the successful wave and it will spend itself in distance and time. </li></ul><ul><li>So India is in for the long haul. It is possible to deflect the wave Westwards than to absorb it Eastwards for historically the Persians were able to subdue the Afghans as the book &quot;History of the Pathans&quot; by Olaf Caroe shows. </li></ul><ul><li>Karzai and other sarkari Pashtuns will be overwhelmed unless the TSP is taken down massively. I don’t think the West understands this or hopes to use the wave towards India. </li></ul>
  39. 39. Alternate Prognosis <ul><li>The new elite in Islamabad must realize, that an ideological necessity no longer exists for the continuance of military rule </li></ul><ul><ul><li>They need to let the kabila guards go and allow the society to settle down and be at peace with itself and its neighbors. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>There is also no reason why Balochs, Sindhis and Pashtuns should not have greater autonomy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nazariya-e-Pakistan is not realistic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Even during the pre-Mughal era the Turks and Afghans fought each other </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Pakistan must repeal its law declaring Ahmadiyas as non-Muslims, and give more freedom to Christians and Hindus. </li></ul><ul><li>The new elite should envision a new concept of how Pakistan should look like in future and abandon the “Not India” vision </li></ul>
  40. 40. India’s Neighbourhood – Situation Analysis & India’s Options China
  41. 41. The “Other” Clash of Civilizations <ul><li>India and China are destined to Compete and Cooperate </li></ul><ul><li>Chinese “string of pearls” – India’s encirclement and Indian response </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gwadar Port </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Arming of their “Israel” with nuclear arms </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Militarization of Tibet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Listening posts through in Bay of Bengal through Bangladesh and Myanmar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assisting Sri Lanka </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competing in Africa and Central Asia for dominance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Militarization of Space – threat to Indian space assets </li></ul></ul><ul><li>India’s Tibet options – Post Dalai Lama era is a threat or opportunity? </li></ul><ul><li>From a diffidence to realization – India grapples the cold reality of Chinese intent </li></ul><ul><ul><li>China’s position in the Nuclear deal – showcased her intent and limits of power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chinese creeping encroachment – Arunachal – India’s response – blow hot and blow cold </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China’s Tibet Rail – India’s belated but scrambling response </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China’s faultlines – Xinjiang, Taiwan, Indochina and Spartlys – India’s naval response </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China’s jugular – Straits of Malaca </li></ul></ul><ul><li>US-China-India – Triangular poker game </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recurring US penchant for promoting China as a major power in Asia and relegating India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>US track record of wink and nod for Chinese proliferation of nukes against India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>US concern to balance China and the role of India in it – Offer of ABM defense to India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chinese fear of Indian rise and implications for Tibet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Indian rise can be an alluring alternative for Chinese to a communist totalatarian regime </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Indian rise can be a counter balancing force for Asian nations to Chinese domination </li></ul></ul>
  42. 42. India’s Neighbourhood – Situation Analysis & India’s Options Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh & Sri Lanka
  43. 43. India’s other Neighbourhood states <ul><li>Nepal – Loss of Nepal to Maoists – India’s loss China’s gain? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of policy clarity, national interest held subservient to Indian Left’s interest – weak centre – key causes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Diffidence in Tibet policy contributes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nepal emerges as the number one economic destabilisation base for ISI and China </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Myanmar – Back to realpolitik- India’s investments pays off partially </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Indian influence in the ruling junta established </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Boost to anti-insurgency efforts in NE through denial of bases by Myanmar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Key to bring in energy from Myanmar and open up Myanmar for Indian soft power and economic power projection </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>India should play a more nuanced role in rapproachment between the junta and democracy activists </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Myanmar still in Chinese sphere of influence </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bangladesh – The terror factory’s second front – Post election Bangladesh – a way forward? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ostrich attitude towards illegal immigration </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of clear policy to neutralize anti-Indian terror centres inside Bangladesh </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need to strengthen Bangla identity over Islamic identity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sri Lanka – Policy of abandonment? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Post IPKF and Rajiv assassination – Policy was left to regional TN politicians </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No game plan for securing genuine Tamil aspirations whilst maintaining unified Sri Lanka </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No alternative for LTTE cultivated </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Indian policy of minimal intervention has allowed for other powers to make their presence felt in SL </li></ul></ul>
  44. 44. Thank You