Foreign policy options for pakistan

1. Foreign Policy Options for
Pakistan

2. Geo-Strategic, Geo-Political and
Geo-Economic Determinants of Pakistan’s
Foreign Policy
Geo-Strategic:
“While history has been unkind with Pakistan, its geography has
been its greatest benefit.”
“Pakistan is one of the nine pivotal states whose future evolution
would not only determine the fate of the South Asian region but
also effect international stability.”
Historian Paul Kennedy
• Pakistan is located at a junction which has great political,
economic and strategic potential.
• Proximity to great powers such as China & Russia, proximity to
central Asia & oil rich Middle East countries are few points that
signify the importance of Pakistan`s Geo-strategic location.

3. Geo-Strategic Location of Pakistan

4. Geo Strategic, Geo Political and
Geo Economic Determinants of Pakistan’s
Foreign Policy
Geo-Political:
Pakistan’s policy determinants are a mix of its:
 History
 India and Pakistan became adversaries at independence
and have so remained.
 Religious Heritage
 Pakistan also saw itself as a vanguard of independent
Muslim states. Built its policy around it
 Shock of Fall of Dhaka: Resulted in further
endorsement
 Gen. Zia politicized and constitutionalized it with the
encouragement of the international community
 1998 our Nuclear Bomb is also seen as the Islamic
Bomb

5. Geo-Strategic, Geo-Political and
Geo-Economics Determinants of Pakistan’s
Foreign Policy
Geo-Economics:
 Economic Compulsions
 Mechanisms of Governance oriented towards
external alleviation + internal stability
 Internal resources focused on the attainment and
maintenance of systemic stability and not
efficiency
 Prioritization of human and material resources
towards the maintenance of State viability.
 Intra-State conflict, lack of economic
consensus

6. Shifts in Foreign Policy of Pakistan
 Transition in Foreign policy from Geo-Political
calculations to Geo-Economics
 Global Wealth shift from West to Asian countries.
 Changing regional power equation
 China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (Modern Day Silk Road).
 Shift in Pakistan’s foreign policy to maintain a balance between Saudi
Arabia and Iran.
 Distanced itself from the middle eastern politics (Yemen and Syria)
 Policy of non-interference in other neighbouring countries, including
India and Afghanistan to bring peace and stability in the region.
 Sincere efforts on War on Terror and Global appreciation and
acknowledgement of Zarb-e-Azb.
 Pakistan’s image as peace cultivating state.
 Sincere efforts to bring Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process
 Escape from the risk of bankruptcy that Pakistan faced in 2013 is a
big gain for the country

7. Four Triangles of Pakistan’s Foreign policy
US
AfghanistanPakistan
US
IndiaPakistan
US
ChinaPakistan
US
PakistanMiddle East

8. Pak-Afghanistan Relations
 Pak-Afghanistan relations are not based on a simple linear equation
 Trust deficit since the inception of the Pakistan
 Relations have remained hostage to maneuvering of India in
Afghanistan
 Cross border raids from both sides of the Durand Line still remains
irritant in the relations
 Intensification of hostilities following the withdrawal of foreign troops
with less contingency troops in different parts of Afghanistan.
__2015 was the worst year on record for civilian casualties in Afghanistan.
 Pakistan is the largest stakeholder to a peaceful and prosperous
Afghanistan and the peace in Pakistan is linked with peace in
Afghanistan
 Confidence and trust building measures between Pakistan and
Afghanistan Government are still on page.
 Pakistan has so much intractably involved in the quagmire that despite
sincere efforts in pursuit of peace, it still comes under severe criticism
from the Afghan government.

9. Contemporary Trends
 Sincere efforts and commitment of Pakistan to bring peace
in Afghanistan under Quadrilateral Coordination Group
(QCG) initiative
 Refusal by Taliban to join peace talks and the death of
Afghan Taliban leadership in Pakistan Territory __major
setback to the peace process
 Further delay in US troops exit is a real impediment to
peace in Afghanistan and US desire not to cut down
number of troops to 5,500 by the end of 2016
 The stalemate on transit trade route access on both sides
and route
 Poor border management question and blame game

10. Pak-China Relations
 Pak-China relations are based on “Time-tested” & “All
Weather Friendship” and convergence of interests.
 Historically supported Pakistan against the rivalry of
India.
 Supported on diplomatic, military and economic front
since 1960s.
 Chinese investment in the net FDI Pakistan has received in
Jul-Jan 2015-16 stands at 63.1%, more than double from
30% a year ago.
 In the Asia-Pacific, China’s advancement in the South
China Sea has exacerbated tensions with other Asia-Pacific
allied with the U.S. China needs allies to change the world
order and it begins with Pakistan.

11. Contemporary Trends
 Instrumental in initiating the full of membership of Shanghai
Cooperation organization (SCO).
 CPEC and economic integration with China will provide Pakistan
economic gains and a balance to its relationship with its larger
neighbours
• China’s submarine operations in the Indian Ocean and the Chinese-
Pakistani naval cooperation will have the potential to change the
regional naval power balance.
• The construction of civil, energy and military infrastructure projects
under CPEC which also cover Azad Kashmir and the areas of Gilgit
and Baltistan will have strategic implications.
• Pakistan is the top recipient of China’s arms. This military assistance
and co-operation is being likely to improve after CPEC. This
cooperation could be in the form of setting up nuclear and ballistic
missile programs, and conventional arms export.

12. Pak-India Relations
 More than six decades after independence, Pakistan-India relations are
less extensive than were those between the United States and the
Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.
 Since Independence, Pakistan-India relations have been under the
shadows of suspicions, misunderstandings, tensions and wars. Both
states never succeeded to win the mutual interests of each other
because of their unresolved disputes. Myopic approach and lack of co-
operation.
 Pakistan-India Relations can be best described as one step ahead and
two steps backward.
 India has been seen as continually seeking regional hegemony thus
always creating a threat of insecurity for Pakistan.
 India strives to impose systemic Unipolarity whereas Pakistan seeks to
maintain Bipolarity. Thus ensuing divergence of structural interests
creates conflict prone regional dynamics.

13. Pak-India Relations
 India’s hegemonic interests, uncontested regional power,
greater global influence and ill will towards Pakistan by
growing aggregate power base increase Pakistan
perception of existential threat.
 Kashmir and water remain the dangerous flash points
between India and Pakistan.
Contemporary Trends
 Pakistan’s policy of distancing from all anti- Indian non
state actors which is itself a promising trend.
Pathankot incident ____a test case, setting a good precedent of
restrain and intelligence sharing.
Recent intelligence sharing by Pakistan National Security Adviser
(NSA) Nasir Janjua with his India counterpart about a possible
terror attack in Gujarat.

14. US-India Relations
 US- India have opened up to one another by way of trade,
diplomacy or strategic relations.
 U.S. is using “Asia Pivot” policy to co-opt a large number of
countries stretching from Japan to India, to contain China.
 Post-U.S. withdrawal coordination in Afghanistan, and the need for
maritime security in Asia.
 U.S. need India as a strategic ally to contain and counterweight the
emergence of strong China- Russia nexus expected to be followed
by Pakistan as a key actor.
 India and the U.S. have the potential to be each other’s largest trade
and investment partners, with significant benefits for both
economies and peoples.
 Russia’s military cooperation agreement with Pakistan last
November (the first since the fall of the Soviet Union) has
intensified India and U.S. concerns.

15. US-India Relations
 Post 2008 Indo-U.S. nuclear deal, waiver to the Nuclear Suppliers
Group (48 nations cartel) was granted to India under U.S. pressure
during Bush Administration.
 During 2014, U.S. and India announced India-U.S. Defense Trade and
Technology Initiative (DTTI), including coproduction of the Raven
unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and an “intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance” module for the Lockheed Martin-manufactured C-
130J transport.
 Trade and investment is one the key of strengthening and enduring
bilateral relations between India and the U.S.
 During 2014, U.S. trade with India touched an all time exports and
imports close to $67 billion.
 Policy to counsel nuclear restraint to Pakistan and on the other, selling
state-of-the-art conventional weapons to India.
 The United States, over the period 1946-2012, has given India the
largest amount of $65.1bn economic assistance. USAID data
Statistics.

16. US-Pakistan Relations in the regional
context
 Duplicity of actions on the US side
 Confused signals despite Pakistan’s sincere efforts and
sacrifices on War on Terror
 Confused and lack of coherent policy to deal with Afghan
Taliban
 US looking towards India to deliver in Afghanistan as a
major player and minus Pakistan from the peace process in
Afghanistan
 The issue of F-16, Shakil Afridi and lope sided policy on
the nuclear issue and the latest drone attack in Balochistan
are self-evident of US duplicity

17. Pak-Middle East Relations
 Religious Holy Land link
 Pakistan has traditionally attached much importance to its
relations with the Muslim countries as a part of its
commitment to the notion of the ‘Ummah’ or Muslim
Universalism.
__Support for the Palestinian cause
 Non-Partisan Policy
__ concrete military support to Syria in the 1973 Arab-
Israel war.
__ supplied 5,000 troops to Saudi Arabia against the
backdrop of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.

18. Pak-Middle East Relations
 Developed multifaceted relations in economic and
security fields with Arab states such as Saudi Arabia,
Jordan and the Gulf states.
 Quid pro quo: Petro bonanza by Middle Eastern states, in
return Pakistan helped in building their armies, airlines
and media.
 Tilt in Pakistan’s policy vis- a-vis Middle East came after
the Iranian Revolution, i.e. in favour of conservative
monarchies as compared to radical states such as Syria,
Libya and Iran.
 Policy to build warm relations with all Middle Eastern
states turned into partisan due to the political turmoil and
polarization of the Middle East.

19. Pak-Middle East Relations
Contemporary Trends
 Pakistan’s policy to remain neutral in ongoing intra-Arab
conflict prevented the fault-lines and sectarian divide present in
the country to be further disturbed.
 The convergence between Saudi Arabia and India has now
gained a lot more depth
 The Middle East would likely stay a precarious course in the
coming years.
 Proximity, energy reliance, a large Pakistan immigrant
population and traditional links will be crucial to maintain
policy of non-interference for Pakistan in Middle East turmoil.
 Pakistan must positively engaged with its Middle Eastern allies

20. Foreign Policy of Pakistan
Recommendation:
 Pragmatic evaluation of long-term national interests
 Diversification of the foreign policy
 Strive for balanced foreign policy between East and West
 Diplomatic Maneuvering
 Not based on imbalances
 Need for coherent and consistent approach and synergy
between military and political leadership
 Address the intellectual gaps

21. Thank You