The document discusses the challenges facing Alberta's economy including its reliance on the natural resources sector, high unemployment, and challenges in the agriculture sector. It provides context on Alberta's budget, GDP growth, innovation initiatives, the manufacturing and healthcare sectors, farming revenue, critical metals production, and reducing internal trade barriers. Sources are provided on topics like oil price volatility, AI opportunities, health data utilization, the provincial budget, GDP forecasts, new startup accelerators, manufacturing sales, healthcare wait times, farm receipts, legislation around metals production, and bolstering international economic corridors.

1. Jason Kenney era for
Alberta
Paul Young CPA, CGA
March 21, 2022

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. Agenda
• Fiscal Plan
• Debt Rating
• Healthcare
• Education
• Expense Management
• Red Tape
• Mining Ranking
• Economy – Manufacturing
• GDP
• Provincial Forecast
• Poverty
• Texas, Norway and AB

4. Alberta Fiscal Management Plan
• Source - https://economics.bmocapitalmarkets.com/economics/budget/2018ab/bud2018ab.pdf
Winners
• Parents more money for kindgergarten
• Students will see tuition frozen
• $5.3B or about $1.7B per year for clean
tech initiatives. So, about ¼ deficit is
tied to subsidizing clean technology
Losers:
• More debt and no path to balancing the
budget
Source -
https://globalnews.ca/news/4100361/alb
erta-budget-2018-winners-losers/

5. Kenney Plan / Surplus
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/regulation/kenney-and-united-conservatives-promise-714m-budget-surplus-by-2023-230096/
The UCP expects that revenues from oil and gas
royalties will be lower than projected by the
NDP, but by keeping spending hikes to about 0.3
per cent per year, coupled with job creation
incentives such as slashing the corporate tax,
they can get to balance before the end of its
first term in government.
The UCP projects that if it wins the election,
the budget for 2019-20 would show a $7.4
billion deficit, including borrowing to pay for
operations.
It says that would be followed by a $6.6-billion
deficit the following year, then $4 billion in the
red, before finally the $714-million surplus in
the 2022-23 fiscal year.

6. Fundamentals Provincial.pdf

7. Debt / Alberta
Source -
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moody
s-affirms-Albertas-Aa1-rating-maintains-
negative-outlook--PR_386357

8. Healthcare - AB
Source – Federal Government and Alberta Government
• Alberta spending on healthcare is very
high -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga
ry/alberta-healthcare-spending-canada-
cihi-1.4390555
• Money spent on healthcare does appear
to have reduced wait times -
https://globalnews.ca/news/3572118/a
lberta-continuing-care-wait-times-the-
worst-in-5-years-report/
• AB nurses are feeling the pinch -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmo
nton/alberta-nurses-ratify-deal-wage-
freeze-job-security-1.4539454
• Money appears to be tied up in the
system

9. Alberta / Healthcare Ranking
Source - https://www.conferenceboard.ca/hcp/provincial/health.aspx

10. Education – AB
Source – Stats Canada, AB Government
• Notley signed a deal that pay increase would be granted in the future -
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/teacher-union-me-too-clause-would-make-alberta-fiscal-
situation-even-worse
• AB has solid education system - http://www.conferenceboard.ca/hcp/provincial/education.aspx or
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40708421
•

11. Alberta Education Ranking
Source - https://www.conferenceboard.ca/hcp/provincial/education.aspx

12. Expense Management
Source – Government of AB
• Total operating expenses are expected
to rise 3.0% in FY18/19, then run around
2.6% in the following two years. This is
not overly aggressive restraint, but will
bend the real per-capita spending curve
down somewhat in the near term.
• The capital plan sees the most
significant reduction, with total spending
falling to $6.4 billion in FY18/19, from a
hefty $9.2 billion in FY17/18. Spending
fades further in the subsequent two years,
and three-year total capital spending
(FY18/19 through FY20/21) is now
tracking $5.3 billion lower than projected a
year ago. This is a prudent shift with the
recession now behind the province.
Source – BMO Economics

13. Red Tape /
CFIB
Source - https://www.cfib-
fcei.ca/en/advocacy/red-
tape-report-card

14. Alberta –
Mining
Ranking
Source -
https://www.fraserinstitute.or
g/studies/annual-survey-of-
mining-companies-2017

15. Oil / Canada
Source – Stats Canada, Baker Hughes and BMO

16. MFG Sales / Employment - AB
Source – Stats Canada
Statistics Canada
says higher prices helped manufacturing sales edge up in January - StAlbertToday.ca.pdf

17. Alberta Employment
Source – Stats Canada

18. Alberta GDP
Source – Stats Canada
A new report says direct employment in Canada's oil and gas
sector is expected to fall by more than 12,000 jobs this year.
PetroLMI says the workforce is forecast to drop to about
173,300 in 2019, a decline of 23 per cent from 226,500 in
2014. It says the oil and gas labour market shrank quickly in
2015 and 2016 following a commodity price collapse and
remained relatively flat through 2017 and 2018.
Source - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/canada-
alberta-jobs-oil-gas-employment-cuts-losses-1.5089234

19. Provincial Forecast
Source – RBC Economics
AB_Budget_2022.pdf

20. Housing / Alberta
RBC - Housing and
Real Estate - February 2022.pdf

21. Poverty / AB
Source - https://globalnews.ca/video/4683561/1-in-6-alberta-children-lives-
below-poverty-line

22. Texas, Norway and Alberta
• Texas Automotive - https://www.statesman.com/BUSINESS/20160915/Texas-continues-growth-into-auto-industry-powerhouse
• Texas has no state income tax - https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrae/2019/04/03/states-with-no-income-taxes/#2b04666c1b1c. Texas has sales
tax which AB does not - https://www.texastribune.org/2019/04/17/texas-sales-tax-increase-hit-poor-hardest/
• Norway has high tax including consumption tax - https://www.sovereignman.com/lifestyle-design/why-norway-is-a-bs-argument-for-higher-taxes-
8235/
• Texas has built a solid IT sector - https://houston.innovationmap.com/heres-how-houston-and-texas-rank-when-it-comes-to-tech-job-growth-
2633154180.html
• NDP handcuff the AB energy sector with more regulations - https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/advocacy/red-tape-report-card. Texas regulates oil as well
but not to extent that AB did under the NDP
• Texas refineries reap the benefit of cheap Canadian oil - https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/bp-refineries-run-at-15-year-
high-to-gain-from-cheap-canadian-oil
• Norway is very small country in terms of size and population. AB is land lock in terms of getting its goods to market. AB depends on pipelines -
https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/a-self-inflicted-wound-pipeline-delays-to-cost-canadian-economy-15-6b-in-2018-says-
scotiabank
• Texas has struggle with poverty - https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/13/texas-poverty-census-2017-lowest-levels-decade/
• Texas has poor urban planning - https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/investigations/harvey-urban-
planning/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6973359d5ecf
• Norway has very high cost of living - https://borgenproject.org/the-cost-of-living-in-norway-high/
•
• I believe in diversification as way to ensure economies are successful. The oil sector can drive revenues to support economic development in other
areas like IT - https://betakit.com/report-as-albertas-tech-sector-matures-rate-of-new-startups-is-slowing/ . More needs to be done to cultivate
technology like incubation centers.

23. Summary
• Alberta has no path to balance budget
• Alberta’s debt service costs are now close to
$2B/year
• Alberta using the same failed model as Ontario
when incomes to funding clean technology
• AB new jobs have been public sector and not
private sector.
• AB continues to lose oil investment to other
jurisdictions like Texas -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-
up-with-oil-energy-market-march-2019
• Alberta after tax income rate was the lowest in
Canada - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-
quotidien/180313/dq180313a-eng.htm
Provincial.pdf Statistics Canada
says higher prices helped manufacturing sales edge up in January - StAlbertToday.ca.pdf
AB_Budget_2022.pdf RBC - Housing and
Real Estate - February 2022.pdf
Experts warn Alberta
oil price boom could be threatened by volatility - The Western Standard.pdf
AltaML - The
Forefront of Data-Driven Innovation Alberta’s AI Opportunity.pdf
Op-Ed Health Cities
CEO discusses the power of health data.pdf
AlbertaBudget2022.p
df
Alberta’s GDP
expected to grow more than 5% in 2022 - The Chestermere Anchor.pdf
Plug and Play Alberta
Announces 39 Startups For The Launch of Their New Accelerator Programs.pdf
Alberta
manufacturing ticked again up in January ATB Financial.pdf
Auditor General’s
report sets a clear path to improve wait times via public solutions, not private expansion - Friends of Medicare.pdf
Farm revenue in
Alberta up in 2021 ATB Financial.pdf
Bill 82 Laying the
Groundwork for Albertas Future as a Mineral Producer Bennett Jones.pdf
Canada’s farmland
values climbed despite adversity - CochraneNow Cochrane, Alberta's latest news, sports, weather, community events..pdf
Reducing Barriers to
Internal Trade CFA-FCA.pdf
Partnership with
Ireland Alberta Trade Association to bolster Alberta-Ireland economic corridor - Digital Journal.pdf
Summary:
Alberta continues to face many challenges including its ability to expand oil exports
Alberta continues to face high unemployment
Alberta AG sector continues to face many challenges
1. Alberta natural resources sector - https://westernstandardonline.com/2022/03/experts-warn-
alberta-oil-price-boom-could-be-threatened-by-volatility/
2. Innovation - https://altaml.com/news/the-forefront-of-data-driven-innovation-alberta-s-ai-
opportunity/
3. Alberta healthcare sector - https://healthcities.ca/power-of-health-data/
4. Alberta Budget - https://economics.td.com/alberta-budget
5. GDP - https://www.theanchor.ca/2022/albertas-gdp-expected-to-grow-more-than-5-in-2022/
6. Innovation - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/plug-and-play-alberta-announces-39-
startups-for-the-launch-of-their-new-accelerator-programs-821079359.html
7. Manufacturing - https://www.atb.com/company/insights/the-owl/manufacturing-january-2022/
8. Healthcare -
https://www.friendsofmedicare.org/auditor_general_s_report_sets_a_clear_path_to_improve_
wait_times_via_public_solutions_not_private_expansion
9. All levels of government need to improve their crisis and risk management reporting -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-both-the-private-and-public-sectors-need-
mandatory-audits-of-crisis-and-risk-management-reports
10. Farming - https://www.atb.com/company/insights/the-owl/farm-cash-receipts-2021/
11. Critical metals - https://www.bennettjones.com/Blogs-Section/Bill-82-Laying-the-Groundwork-
for-Albertas-Future-as-a-Mineral-Producer
12. Internal barriers - https://www.bennettjones.com/Blogs-Section/Bill-82-Laying-the-
Groundwork-for-Albertas-Future-as-a-Mineral-Producer
13. Technology - https://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/partnership-with-ireland-alberta-trade-
association-to-bolster-alberta-ireland-economic-corridor