This document provides an agenda and analysis of Canada's GDP and fiscal management from September 2020. It includes an analysis of quarterly GDP growth, yearly GDP figures from 2015-2020, current fiscal updates and deficits, and commentary on various economic indicators and policy areas impacting growth. Key points discussed are slow GDP growth, rising national debt levels, impacts of new taxes and programs on households, and reforms needed across all levels of government to better support economic growth.

1. CANADA GDP AND
FISCAL
MANAGEMENT
DIRECTION –
SEPTEMBER 2020
Paul Young CPA CGA
December 2, 2020

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information: paul.young@ca.ibm.com

3. AGENDA
• GDP Analysis / Quarterly Analysis
• GDP Growth % and Slow Growth
• GDP by year (September 2015 to September 2020)
• Fiscal Update / GDP Impact
• RBC / Fiscal Update
• Daycare / Canada
• KPI#1
• KPI#2
• KPI#3
• Summary

4. GDP / QUARTERLY ANALYSIS

5. GDP GROWTH
I have been calling out slow growth for many years:
• December 2016 - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-slow-growth-liberal-party-of-canada-december-7-2016
• December 2018 - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-slow-growth-or-possible-recession
• August – 2019 - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/201-election-canada-and-world-slow-economic-growth-august-2019
• Failures of Morneau Policies - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/was-finance-minister-bill-morneau-a-success-or-failure

6. GDP BY YEAR
Source – Stats Canada

7. STOCK MARKET – NOVEMBER 28 AND
NOVEMBER 30, 2020 (CLOSING)

8. RBC / FISCAL
UPDATE
Source - https://royal-bank-of-
canada-
2124.docs.contently.com/v/eco
nomic-statement-adds-red-
ink-leaves-details-of-stimulus-
for-later-pdf
• Canada debt to GDP has not been this highest since the 1990s -
https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/one-world-one-money/paul-
martins-milestone-one-for-the-record-books/
• Economies is struggling with the new norm -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/new-normal-for-canada-and-
the-world. The green reset will not help the economy grow. It could lead to
stagnation and high unemployment -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-slow-growth-liberal-

9. FISCAL UPDATE
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/4eaa72b1-7c11-45d3-927a-cc2227536362/
• Liberals cuts tax rates but made up for those tax cuts
• Liberals are leading to a structure deficit which means higher
taxes, like GST. Each point of GST is worth about $5B.
• New Taxes or Hikes
• Elimination of boutique tax credits
• Hikes to CPP
• Estimated costs $150 to $300 more per year -
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/january-1-
cpp-hikes-to-hit-employers-payroll-budgets-cut-
take-home-wages-for-workers-805159419.html
• Carbon Tax is adding $1,400 to 2,000K additional costs
to households -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-real-
truth-about-emissions-and-carbon-taxation
• Fuel Standard change / new carbon tax
• Estimated Costs $500 to $1,000 per household -
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/clean-
fuels-standard-will-increase-household-costs-for-
canadians-capp-819531042.html
Here is my analysis on the fiscal management cycle for Canada -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-cycle-canada-fiscal-update-ecomomic-and-
fiscal-management

10. DAYCARE / CANADA
• How about the government focus on tax reforms as part of letting people
choose how they spend their tax dollars?
• There are job quality issues never addressed by Freeland -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wages-september-2020-and-
employment-october-2020-analysis-and-commentary-canada
• Daycare model means hiring more government workers
• Daycare continues to rise -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/childcare-costs-canada-1.5008106
• Quebec Model has issues - https://www.iedm.org/1921-quebecs-
failed-child-care-model/
• Government already provides transfers for daycare via CST -
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-
finance/corporate/transparency/transition-binders/2019/how-finance-
works/federal-provincial-relations-social-policy-branch.html. Provinces
are struggling with their fiscal gaps -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/reforming-the-public-
sector-federal-provincial-and-local-government-canada
• Daycare
• Daycare should be based on choice and affordability
• https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-child-care-
who-do-trust-more-to-support-child-care

11. KPI#1

12. KPI#2

13. KPI#3

14. SUMMARY
• Key macro and micro indicators - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-macro-and-micro-indicators-canada-
and-usa-august-2020-and-september-2020 or https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/scorecard-october-2020-
and-september-2020-canada
• GDP will continue to be challenged post COVID19. All levels of government need to refocus their efforts on
supporting policies that encourage economic growth - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-going-on-
with-canadas-competitiveness
• There is a great opportunity for local and provincial government to refocus on the goods producing sector, like
Natural Resources and AG sectors - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-natural-resources-sector-whats-
next
• More and more automation is about to take root. All levels of government need to address their policies including
taxation. Taxation rules for robots that replace people need to be revisited -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/technology-what-needs-to-happen-for-canada-and-the-world
• All levels of government will need to be reformed - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reform-the-
public-sector-in-canada-and-around-the-world
• Canada needs to emphasize getting goods to market (MFG, Natural Resources and AG, etc.) -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-manufacturing-in-canada-237239963 or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/government-policy-natural-gas-canada or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-needs-to-development-natural-resources-and-agricultural-strategy
• Skills gaps needs to be address as part of positioning people for jobs of today and tomorrow -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/automation-and-human-capital-management-human-resources

15. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT
• If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning and
development then feel
free to review my material
on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA
CGA)
• These subjects address
how to fixed issues with
housing and/or systemic
issues related to economy
including government
policies