Alberta has no path to balance budget Alberta’s debt service costs are now close to $2B/year Alberta using the same failed model as Ontario when incomes to funding clean technology AB new jobs have been public sector and not private sector.

1. Alberta – Fiscal and
Economic Mess
Paul Young CPA, CGA
February 27, 2019

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions – FOPM and FPM
• SME – Business Process Changes
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• Academia – Advance Accounting, Public
Finance and Advanced Management
Systems
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. Agenda
• Fiscal Plan
• Debt Rating
• Healthcare
• Education
• Expense Management
• Red Tape
• Mining Ranking
• Economy - Manufacturing

4. Summary
• Alberta has no path to balance budget
• Alberta’s debt service costs are now close to
$2B/year
• Alberta using the same failed model as Ontario
when incomes to funding clean technology
• AB new jobs have been public sector and not
private sector.

5. Alberta Fiscal Management Plan
• Source - https://economics.bmocapitalmarkets.com/economics/budget/2018ab/bud2018ab.pdf
Winners
• Parents more money for kindgergarten
• Students will see tuition frozen
• $5.3B or about $1.7B per year for clean
tech initiatives. So, about ¼ deficit is
tied to subsidizing clean technology
Losers:
• More debt and no path to balancing the
budget
Source -
https://globalnews.ca/news/4100361/alb
erta-budget-2018-winners-losers/

6. Debt / Alberta
Source -
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moody
s-affirms-Albertas-Aa1-rating-maintains-
negative-outlook--PR_386357

7. Healthcare - AB
Source – Federal Government and Alberta Government
• Alberta spending on healthcare is very
high -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga
ry/alberta-healthcare-spending-canada-
cihi-1.4390555
• Money spent on healthcare does appear
to have reduced wait times -
https://globalnews.ca/news/3572118/a
lberta-continuing-care-wait-times-the-
worst-in-5-years-report/
• AB nurses are feeling the pinch -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmo
nton/alberta-nurses-ratify-deal-wage-
freeze-job-security-1.4539454
• Money appears to be tied up in the
system

8. Alberta / Healthcare Ranking
Source - https://www.conferenceboard.ca/hcp/provincial/health.aspx

9. Education – AB
Source – Stats Canada, AB Government
• Notley signed a deal that pay increase would be granted in the future -
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/teacher-union-me-too-clause-would-make-alberta-fiscal-
situation-even-worse
• AB has solid education system - http://www.conferenceboard.ca/hcp/provincial/education.aspx or
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40708421
•

10. Alberta Education Ranking
Source - https://www.conferenceboard.ca/hcp/provincial/education.aspx

11. Expense Management
Source – Government of AB
• Total operating expenses are expected
to rise 3.0% in FY18/19, then run around
2.6% in the following two years. This is
not overly aggressive restraint, but will
bend the real per-capita spending curve
down somewhat in the near term.
• The capital plan sees the most
significant reduction, with total spending
falling to $6.4 billion in FY18/19, from a
hefty $9.2 billion in FY17/18. Spending
fades further in the subsequent two years,
and three-year total capital spending
(FY18/19 through FY20/21) is now
tracking $5.3 billion lower than projected a
year ago. This is a prudent shift with the
recession now behind the province.
Source – BMO Economics

12. Red Tape /
CFIB
Source - https://www.cfib-
fcei.ca/en/advocacy/red-
tape-report-card

13. Alberta –
Mining
Ranking
Source -
https://www.fraserinstitute.or
g/studies/annual-survey-of-
mining-companies-2017

14. Oil / Canada
Source – Stats Canada, Baker Hughes and BMO

15. MFG Sales / Employment - AB
Source – Stats Canada
• “What about the return of jobs to Alberta? The NDP recently bragged that “nearly 49,000 jobs were created here
over the last year,” which refers to the increase of 48,500 jobs for the 12 months ending June 2017. But it turns
out — even if we ignore the decrease of 14,400 jobs in July — that this employment “recovery” is actually just a
mirage: 41,900 of the 48,500 jobs were in the public sector, financed by deficits of over $10 billion at the
provincial level and of nearly $30 billion in Ottawa.” http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/matthew-lau-
albertas-job-mirage
• Alberta cannot get oil to market - https://globalnews.ca/news/4104087/anti-pipeline-protests-continue-at-b-c-
kinder-morgan-terminals/

16. Alberta
Employment
Source – Stats Canada