There has been little discussion of a economic road map as part of the managing COVID19. The economy has many parts to it as such govt needs to come up with fiscal and economic road map as part moving Canada through the COVID19 crisis.

1. Post-Pandemic – Canada –
2020 and beyond
PAUL YOUNG CPA CGA
APRIL 10, 2020

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. Agenda
 GDP / January 2020
 Stock Market
 Household Debt
 Farm Incomes / 2019
 Affordability / February 2020
 Merchandise Trade / February 2020
 Job Losses / March 2020
 Government Stimulus
 Additional Sources – Training and Development

4. Farm Incomes
 Carbon Tax / Farm Incomes “An organization representing agricultural producers in Saskatchewan says the
federal carbon tax could eat up to 12 per cent of a farmer’s net income by 2022.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/6500544/farm-income-carbon-tax-saskatchewan-agricluture/
 Farm Income / 2018 –” The realized net farm income of agricultural producers fell 45.1% in 2018 to $3.9 billion,
the largest percentage decrease since 2006. This followed a 2.8% decline in 2017. Realized net income is the
difference between a farmer's cash receipts and operating expenses, minus depreciation, plus income in kind.
Rising feed, interest and labour costs together with little change in farm cash receipts pushed realized net farm
income lower. Realized net income fell in every province except New Brunswick (+7.2%) where an increase in
cannabis and potato production boosted receipts. More than one-third of the national decrease was
attributable to a 68.1% decline in Alberta. ” - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-
quotidien/190528/dq190528a-eng.htm

5. GDP / January 2020
Source – BMO, RBC, TD Economics, Government of Canada and ScotiaBank
GDP
Avg
1993 to
2000
3.8%
GDP
Avg
2001 to
2005
2.5%
GDP
Avg
2006 to
2008
1.9%
GDP
2009
Recession
-2.7%
GDP
2010 to
2015
2.3%
GDP
2016 to
2019
2.0%
Pandemic
Covid19
-4.1
GDP
2021 to
2023
2.8%
GDP 1993 to 2023 – 2.3%
GDP 2001 to 2023 – 1.8%

6. Stock Market
Source – BMO and TSX

7. Household Debt
Household debt slightly decline 4Q20 - Household debt as a proportion of disposable income ticked down from
176.6% in the third quarter to 176.3% in Q4, the agency reported.
At the same time, the household debt service ratio — which represents payments of principal and interest as a
proportion of household disposable income — rose to 14.98%, StatsCan said. Debt payments grew by 6.9% in
2019, while disposable income rose by 4.9%. – Source - https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/household-
debt-remains-elevated-service-ratio-rises-statscan/

8. Affordability

9. Merchandise Trade / February 2020
• Trade to China has been impacted by COVID19
• Canada trade has struggle despite new deals like TPP, revised NAFTA and CETA
• Aircraft exports expanded – COVID will have impact as travel restrictions were imposed in March 2020 -
https://importersnetwork.ca/news/imports/canadian-international-merchandise-trade-february-2020
• Energy seen a steep drop of in terms of pricing - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-importance-
of-oil-to-the-global-economy

10. March 2020/Employment numbers
• More job losses are expected in March 2020 as more of the economy is shutdown due to COVID19
• Many jobs are not coming back. There could be estimated permanent loss of 500K as businesses either
shutdown or restructure how they operate (i.e. eCommerce, automation, etc. -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/technology-whats-next-for-canada

11. Government Stimulus
 Private Sector
 Loan deferrals
 Mortgages
 Federal Government
 Wage Subsidies
 GST tax credits
 Child tax benefit
 Loans to businesses
 Additional programs for other sectors of the economy (TBA)
 Additional wage support (TBA)

12. Carbon Tax
 The federal government increase the carbon tax by 50%
 https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/april-1-in-canada-federal-carbon-tax-jumps-50-and-mps-salaries-grow-2-
1
 Trudeau says people get more back, but the reality Trudeau is not taking in account the costs pass through the supply chain
- https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/truth-about-emissions-and-carbon-pricing
 Trudeau is using the pandemic to push Agenda 2030 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-and-agenda-2030-
justin-trudeau-end-state-for-canada
 Provinces have said little as provinces could be delay and/or in some cases deny federal funding if they do not support the
carbon tax - https://ipolitics.ca/2020/04/09/morneau-provinces-must-apply-climate-lens-to-covid-19-recovery-
efforts/?fbclid=IwAR0hddQ9r4aIh43upNgLRJfRT9xMQDxem0Ov5_pc9NgU0VV9UA0r1CTfJ4Y

13. Garth Turner / GDP
Source - https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/04/09/this-is-
tough/?fbclid=IwAR1yVes6kmI6MMKtyy_oSe2c4PUywr3prqYABPCR2tA-YZOXqEnOauy_FQk
• Here are concerns
• The government needs to watch their debt ratio -
https://nationalpost.com/news/covid-19-federal-deficit-
projected-to-reach-184b-as-economic-response-rolled-out
• People have debt obligations that cannot be fixed with one of
policies. The best way to help people is to provide the
conditions that will encourage FDI -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fdi-foriegn-direct-
investment-Canada
• There has been a job quality issue for more than 30 years. Job
quality has worse over the past 4+ years -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/social-spending-
and-tax-fairness-197908290
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/job-quality-
canada-vs-usa
• Trudeau team never had the balance between economy and
the environment
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-
growth-and-the-major-issues-facing-global-gdp
• Govt may push for guarantee income –
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/guarantee-
income-and-ei-support-analysis-and-commentary
• Finland tried Guarantee Income as such it was a
failure

14. Training and Development
 If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning and
development then feel free
to review my material on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA
CGA)
 These subjects address
how to fixed issues with
housing and/or systemic
issues related to economy
including government
policies

15. What needs to help support the economy
 Many businesses will like restructured and/or shutdown due to loss of income - https://www.cfo.com/bankruptcy/2020/04/the-restructuring-
remedy/?utm_campaign=CFODailyAlert&utm_nooverride=1&utm_source=CFO-
email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=CFODailyAlert_Thursday_2020-4-9&utm_term=bankruptcy
 500K jobs will like never come back
 All levels of government will need to focus on economic development strategy
 Emphasis on infrastructure spending - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-infrastructure-and-transit
 Reforming the size of government, i.e. value for money and performance audits - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-importance-of-value-for-money-and-
perfomance-based-audits
 Skills Trades - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-human-capital-and-skills-management-canada-september-2019
 Reforming tax and regulations to support goods producing sector - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-going-on-with-canadas-competitiveness
 Emphasis on natural resources and food processing sector - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-of-natural-resources-sector-canada and
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/agriculture-and-farming-sector-whats-next
 Development of rural strategy as part of encouraging people to move to rural areas - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-rural-areas-and-affairs-
canada
 Eliminating the carbon tax and focusing on more balance between the environment and the economy - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/truth-about-
emissions-carbon-taxes-and-climate-change
 Encouraging manufacturing back to Canada,
 Medical supplies and equipment
 Consumer products/devices
 3-D printing / Automation
 Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-canadas-manufacturing-sector