This document discusses key concepts for understanding conflict analysis. It begins by asking probing questions about conflict. It then defines conflict and discusses its sources and phases. It explains that conflict can be positive or negative. The document outlines some basic facts about conflict and defines conflict analysis. It discusses why conflict analysis is important and when it should be conducted. It also outlines the key elements of conflict analysis, including the conflict profile, causes, actors and dynamics. Some common tools for conflict analysis are also described, such as the ABC triangle, onion/doughnut model, conflict mapping, conflict progression, and conflict tree. The document concludes by providing suggestions for good practices in conducting conflict analysis.

1. By
Dr Benjamin A. Aluko
Understanding the Basic Elements &
Tools of Conflict Analysis

2. Probing
Questions
 Who are you in the context of
a Conflict?
 What is conflict?
 What are the sources of
conflicts?
 What are the phases of
conflicts?
 Is conflict desirable?
 What are the some of the basic
facts about conflict?
 What is conflict analysis?
 Why do we need a conflict
analysis?
 When do we do conflict
analysis?
 What are the key elements of
conflict analysis?
 What are some of the tools of
conflict analysis?
 Suggested good practices in
conflict analysis

3. Who are you in the context of a
conflict?
As a Medical Practitioner VS
Patient
(Restoring Health)
As a Peace Practitioner VS
Conflict
(Restoring Relationships)

4. What is Conflict?
A Layman Perspective:
 Disagreement, Crisis,
 Dispute, killing
 Violence, Debate,
 Fight, War,
 Protest/Riot,
Aggression
 Confusion, Chaos

5. What is Conflict… cont
 Conflict is a form of competitive behaviour
between people or groups. It occurs when two
or more people compete over perceived or
actual goals or limited resources. (Boulding,
1962).
 It is ...”a relationship between two or more
parties who believe they have incompatible
goals” (Kriesberg, 1973).

6. What are the Sources of Conflict?
Competition for
inadequate (or
perceived to be
inadequate) resources;
Contradicting value
systems;
Psychological needs of
groups and individuals;
Manipulation of
information. (Albert,
Governance(bad governance);
Economics (lack of economic
opportunities);
Security;
Socio-cultural factors.
CAUSATIVE FACTORS STRUCTURAL FACTORS

7. What are the Phases of
Conflict?
 The pre-conflict
phase: This is the
period when there is
an incompatibility of
goals between two or
more parties, which
could lead to open
conflict.
 The conflict or crisis
phase: In a large
scale conflict, this is
the period of war,
when people on all
 Post-conflict phase:
This is the stage
when issues are
being addressed to
promote normal
relationships between
the parties. In the
international context,
this phase can be
subdivided with labels
such as ‘stabilisation;
humanitarian; early
recovery; ‘peace-

8. Is Conflict
Desirable?
 Conflict can be positive or
negative depending on the
perceptions of parties.
 When conflict is constructively
managed, it can create an
opportunity for positive change.
 The outcome of a conflict is
determined by the way parties
perceive it, which is also a

9. What are some of the Basic Facts
About Conflict?
Conflict is natural and inevitable
Conflict occurs at all levels human endeavors
Conflict emerges through an interactive process
Conflict can be constructive or destructive
Conflict occurs because parties pursue incompatible
interest.
Conflict can be Prevented, Managed or Resolved

10. What is Conflict
Analysis?
Conflict analysis is a
practical process of
examining and
understanding the reality
of a conflict from a variety
of perspectives (Fisher, S.
et al, 2000).
Conflict analysis is the
systematic study of the
profile, causes, actors,
and dynamics of
conflict.
(FEWER/CIDA)

11. Why conflict analysis?
 To understand the background
and history of the situation as
well as current events.
 To identify all the relevant
groups involved, not just the
main or obvious ones
 To understand the perspectives
of all these groups and to know
more about how they relate to
each other.
 To identify factors and trends
that underline conflicts.
 To learn from failures as well as
successes.

12. When do we Carry Out Conflict
Analysis?
 “Conflict analysis is
most frequently
done, as a formal
exercise, prior to
designing
programmes.
 Conflict analysis can
usefully be done or
re-done when there
is a significant shift
in the dynamics
 It may actually be useful
to include a ‘revisiting’
of the situational
dynamics into the
ongoing programme
management e.g. in the
form of periodic
strategic reviews.
Periodically taking stock of ‘what
has changed and what has not
changed and why’ in one’s
operating environment, may
help detect and invite reflection
on more subtle qualitative
changes that have meaning for
your intervention and efforts.
On-going analysis keeps you in
‘strategic mode rather than just
an initial ‘strategic moment’.

13. Elements of Conflict
Analysis?
(A)The Conflict
Profile:
(B)Causes of
Conflict
(C)Actors:
(D)Dynamics

14. Tools of Conflict Analysis
There are many tools often used for
analyzing conflicts. Five salient ones are
discussed here.
ABC Triangle
Onion/Doughnut Model
Conflict Mapping
Conflict Progression
Conflict Tree

15. ABC Triangle- Basic Assumptions
Every conflict begins with a CAUSE
Once there is a CAUSE, it brings about a
–ve change in ATTITUDE.
-ve ATTITUDE gives rise to –ve change
in BEHAVIOUR
A wrong BEHAVIOUR leads to more
CAUSES.
This cycle of conflict provocations brings

16. CAUSE
ATTITUDE
BEHAVIOR
C3 C2 C1
B1 B2 B3
A3 A2 A1

17. Onion/Doughnut
Likens a conflict to an Onion or doughnut with 3 layers
The outer layer is often very tough and thus constitute the
POSITION-the claims of parties.
The Inner layers are soft and sweet but difficult to reach.
The NEED is the most important, without which the
conflict cannot be resolved.
The exercise involves Trust Building for conflicting
parties to agree to share vital information about one
another.
A good mediator needs to understand all the perspectives
of the conflict.
When parties refuses to share vital information about
themselves. It becomes extremely difficult to unravel the
NEEDS.

18. Onion/Doughtnut
POSITIONS
INTERESTS
NEEDS

19. Conflict Mapping
Presents in a concise form, the graphic
representation of a conflict situation.
Depicts the conflict actors and their power status
Claims of actors
Shows the relationships of actors
Reveals the Shadow parties if any.
Shows the kinds of intervention in place

20. An Example of a Family
Dispute
GRD.MOTHER
UNCLE
FATHER
MOTHER
DAUGHT
SON
Strong Relationship
Broken Alliance
Alliance
Discord

21. Liberian Conflict
Armed Forces of
Liberia
NPFL
AID
AGENCIES
INPFL
Mediation
UNO/
ECOMOG
LIBYA/B. FASO
Ethnicity
Corruption
H/R ABUSE
DICTATO-
SHIP
Embezzle-
Ment
Jail Break
Rebel Movt. NIGERIA

22. Conflict Progression
Latent:
A pre-conflict stage or emergent stage, when there is incompatibility of goals between
two or parties. The conflict is hidden from the general view. Only the primary parties
know a conflict exists.
Escalation:
This is a confrontational stage, when the conflict has become obvious. Each parties
may be mobilizing resources and perhaps looking for allies. Supporters may begin to
engage in demonstrations. Relationships between parties become strained, leading to
polarization between supporters of each side.
Crisis
This is the peak of open conflict and large scale conflict when violence is most intense.
A high casualty is being recorded on both sides. A call for humanitarian intervention.
De-Escalation
at this stage, the level of tension, confrontation and violence decrease considerably with
the possibility of settlement. It may be as a result of one party defeating the other An
authority may impose a ceasefire or parties agree to Negotiation or Mediation
Transformation
A period of peace-building and post conflict reconstruction. Rehabilitation and
Reconciliation projects become the major challenge

23. Conflict Progression
Latent
Escalation
Crisis
De-Escalation
Transformation
Time
Conf
Esca

24. Conflict Tree
Trunk
Fruits
Leaves
Root

25. Good Practices in Conflict Analysis
 It is important to note that
analysing a conflict is not
a ‘value-free’ or emotion-
free exercise. As a
matter of fact, peace-
building is a value-based
engagement and so you
must beware of
subjectivity and bias
creeping into your
analysis. You are better
placed to engage all
sides and appreciate the
situation more clearly, if
you engage in your
analysis with an open
mind.

26. Good Practices of Conflict Analysis…Cont.
 You must factor the
need to actively
review what has been
tried before and what
worked or did not
work, especially if you
are not the first one
trying to intervene in
the conflict, in your
analysis.
 You must consider the
scope of the analysis
from the perspective
of the realities on the
ground and not in
terms of your
particular interests or
circumstances.

27. Good Practices of Conflict
Analysis…Cont.
 Conflict analysis
should also not be a
simple expression of
the areas of ‘common
interest’ of those
doing it.
 We must also be
conscious of the fact
that a conflict analysis
is not a ‘one off
exercise. Good
practice implies that
periodic updates are
planned for to capture
effectively the
dynamics of the
conflict

28. Good Practices of Conflict
Analysis…Cont
 Conflict analysis
is done in
participatory or
non-participatory
ways.
 We must also be
conscious of the
fact that conflict
analysis is not
only relevant
when there is
visible violence

29. Thank you
for
Listening