Forecast Essay

Forecast Essay
1. Select one industry from the list below: The select one industry from the list below is restaurant 2.
What specific variables would be needed by that organization in order to forecast? Be sure you
explain "why" you selected each variable and why it is important to forecasting.. Sales forecasts are
common and essential tools used for business planning, marketing, and general management
decision making. A sales forecast is a projection of the expected customer demand for products or
services at a specific company, for a specific time horizon, and with certain underlying assumptions.
A separate but related projection is the market forecast, which is an attempt to gauge the size of the
entire market for a certain class of goods or ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The simplest example would be to consider the influence of widely observed macroeconomic
indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) and employment rates. A simplistic model of
market growth might indicate that based on time–series data from the past decade the restaurant
market tends to grow at one and one–tenth times the rate of GDP when the national unemployment
rate is less than 7 percent, and at four–fifths of the GDP growth rate when unemployment is greater
than 7 percent. Suppose an analyst wishes to create a two–year forecast for the national restaurant
business. Using published estimates from government or private sector economists, the analyst
might learn that next year's GDP is expected to grow at 2.9 percent and unemployment is expected
to register at 6.7 percent. The following year, however, GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.9
percent and unemployment is expected to rise to 7.6 percent. Using the simple model outlined, the
forecast for next year's restaurant sales growth would be based on the first condition observed,
namely that market growth is somewhat (10 percent) higher than GDP growth when unemployment
is relatively low. In other words, the first year's forecast would be 1.1 × 2.9, or 3.19 percent
restaurant market growth. In the second year, the second condition would come into
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Forecast Evaluation Model
Solution Selection and Planning
In order to figure out which solution was best suited for this problem a Forecast Evaluation Matrix
(FEM) was created. When viewing the FEM, one will see that the three alternative solutions are
charted, and rated in comparison to one another. The one with the highest rating is the one that is
most suitable solution to utilize. The solutions will be compared based upon, Decrease in something,
Personnel Requirement, and Cost Effectiveness. In scoring these categories the one that was seen as
most beneficial was nurse satisfaction, because many of the issues that come from poor time
management result in nurse dissatisfaction which leads to an increase in turnover rate, which in turn
costs the hospital or facility that the nurse works at to put out more money to train and hire a new
nurse. Scoring second highest of criteria was patient satisfaction, time management not only effects
the nurse's duties and quality of care but also the patient's perception of the nurse and the facility.
This is an important criteria especially in today's healthcare system which is being based off of
customer service and our customers are the patients who we treat. At the end of the day, the care that
we give is being judged by the patient and many patients do not like having to wait for their care.
The patients like to feel like they are ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
One, is through an anonymous questionnaire, geared towards new nurses. This method will allow
for nurses to feel comfortable and answer freely without feeling they will be persecuted for their
answers. The questionnaire can be set up as a pre and post– test so that the evaluator can see if there
is a difference in the perception of the nurse. The second method is to track and correlate poor time
management skills with mistakes made due to that specific reason, and follow–up with a re–
evaluation after implementing a routine schedule.
Nursing

Advantages And Disadvantages Of Demand Forecasts
Demand forecasting
Abstract:
1. Identify methods useful for predicting demand in various situations
2. Warn against methods that shouldn't be used
3. Guidelines and examples to improve efficiency of other organizations that don't use these
methods by adopting these forecasting practices.
It has been recorded that formal forecasts are prepared by firms because they have a written
marketing plan, the most popular among these firms is the sales forecast. A common mistake used
by people is that sales and demand acquire the same definition while in fact, demand and sales
equate only when sales aren't limited by supply. Sometimes it is appropriate to forecast demand
directly, while other times where uncertainty and changes are expected market ... Show more
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But no research directly tests the forecasting ability of game theory.
5) Judgmental decomposition: (no feedback)
It involves dividing the forecasting problems into parts that are easier to forecast than the whole, one
approach is breaking it down into multiplicative components. It has a number of advantages as it is
used when there is much uncertainty about the aggregate forecast, when large numbers are involved
and it has proven to be more accurate than those of global approach.
6) Judgmental bootstrapping: (no feedback)
It is a type of expert system which can be useful for repetitive complex forecasting problems when
historical data on the variable to be forecasted are lacking or of poor quality. It is more accurate the
aided judgment.
7) Expert system: (no feedback)
It is designed to solve complex problems by reasoning about knowledge by rules experts use to
make predictions, these rules are created from protocols.
Expert system is aided by: expert opinion, conjoint analysis, bootstrapping.
The rules used are from experts and empirical research. This method is expensive and used when
many similar forecasts are derived from the system.
Self Judgment
A) Role

Erwot Forecast Case Forecast
2018 ERCOT Long–Term Demand Forecasting Approach prepared by London Economics
International LLC
December 21st, 2017
Background
On December 15th, 2017, ERCOT released its annual System Planning Long–Term Hourly Peak
Demand and Energy Forecast report for the region for 2018. The report presents methodology,
assumptions, and the data used to conduct the forecasting. ERCOT bases the forecast on
econometric models describing ERCOT's hourly load as dependent on the number of premises in
various customer classes, weather variables, and calendar variables. Furthermore, the premise
forecasts are based on econometric autoregressive models ("AR1") and certain economic data. With
regards to the data used, forecasts of economic and demographic data ... Show more content on
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Each class' premise count was subsequently modeled by estimating a relationship between the
premises and each of the three pieces of economic data (i.e. housing stock, population, and non–
farm employment).
Issues were encountered in the process of creating premise forecast models for two of the identified
weather zones. In mid–2014, there was a notable spike in the number of premises for the Far West
and West weather zones; it was around this time when an entity opted into ERCOT's competitive
market and when ERCOT's service territory was modified through expansion. As such, premise
forecast models were not created for the Far West and West weather zones; instead, the
aforementioned zones considered economic variables of key drivers of forecasted demand and
energy growth.
Hourly Energy Models
A relationship was estimated for each of the eight weather zones between the dependent variable,
hourly energy, and various time and weather metrics (i.e. month, season, day type, weather
variables, interactions, number of premises, and non–farm employment/housing stock/population).
Weather variables include, for instance, temperature, dew point, cloud cover, wind speed, and
cooling and heating degree days. Interactions include hour and day of week, hour and temperature,
hour and dew point, temperature and dewpoint, and hour and temperature and dew point. Not all
variables were included in each

Market Forecast
Introduction
As business becomes more increasingly global, it's very important that countries pay close attention
to foreign exchange exposures in order to design ways of implementing appropriate strategies to
properly deal with these types of exposures. In this paper I will attempt to forecast the degree of
transaction, translation and the economic exposure for Russia. I will follow that by forecasting the
degree of these specific areas and analyzing the various techniques used to mitigate these exposures.
The goal of this paper is to identify a few concepts of transaction, translation, and economic
exposure for international operations in Russia.
Economic Exposure It is conventional to classify foreign currency exposures into ... Show more
Goldman helped the government raise money by selling $1.25 billion in bonds. A few weeks later, it
arranged a complex deal in which short–term debt was exchanged for long–term debt to give Russia
financial breathing room. This business deal resulted in failure when less than a year later, the
Russian government stopped paying what it owed on much of its debt and buyers of the bonds that
Goldman sold now owned nearly
Translation Exposure Translation exposure, also frequently called accounting exposure, refers to the
effect that unanticipated change in exchange rates will have on the consolidated financial reports of
a MNC. Translation or Accounting Exposure equals the difference between exposed assets and
liabilities. The trick is to decide what is exposed and what is not. Four methods of foreign currency
translation have been used in recent years, the current/non–current method, the monetary/non–
monetary method, the
temporal method, and the current rate method. The underlying principle of the current/non–current
method is that assets and liabilities should be translated based on their maturity. The monetary/non–
monetary method is that monetary accounts have a similarity because their value represents a sum of
money whose currency equivalent after translation changes each time the exchange rate changes.
Under the temporal method, monetary

The Expectations With The Forecast Budget For Year 9
A1. Concerns There are several concerns with the forecast budget for year 9. This first concern is in
Advertising. Competition Bikes has annually budgeted 2% of gross profit. Due to the weakening
economy and –15% reductions in year 8, the concern is not making the forecasted amount of units
without increased advertising. Competition Bikes should consider increasing its cost of advertising
to help with communication about the company and its product lines to drive higher sales to meet
the 3510 units. The second concern is Utilities. In year 7, utilities were running $130,000 or 8.24%
of gross profit. During year 7, Competition Bikes sold 4000 units. The concern with Utilities is that
it isn't decreasing to a level comparable to when Competition Bikes had its highest year of
production. The third concern is with Research and Development (R&D. Research and
Development is designed to allocate funds toward research for the purpose of discovering or
creating new products. Year over year, Competition Bikes has only allocated 6% of gross profit
toward the research and development of new product lines. To help with the previous years' –15% in
net sales, Competition Bikes should begin more R&D activities to help boost sales to meet the
projected number. Another concern is the costs associated with "Other General and Admin
Expenses." The allocation of $170,000 didn't increase from the previous year; however when
Competition Bikes sold their highest volume in year 7, Other G&A expenses

"L.L. Bean, Inc." Case Study Report
Case Assumptions & Observations:
1. In 1990, L.L. Bean received 87% of its revenue from customers who purchased merchandise
through their mail order catalogs. The remaining 13% of revenue was realized through their single
company store in Freeport, Maine.
2. They print twenty–two catalogs (or "books") with four primary seasonal catalogs: spring,
summer, fall, and Christmas. Additionally there are various specialty catalogs: Spring Weekend,
Summer Camp, Fly Fishing, etc as well as a smaller "prospect" version. The catalogs have a
"gestation period" of about nine months that involves creation, planning, and forecasting of each
item for each catalog.
3. They shipped 114 million pieces that reached six million active customers with 80% ... Show
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2. 13% of the entire company sales are generated from just a single east coast store location. There
is significant potential to develop this channel of the business and they should invest into
researching and opening additional store locations.
3. The forecasting process is a bottom up approach in that they forecast only at the lowest item level,
which is the color. As Barbara Hamaluk mentioned there should be an intermediate forecast higher
up in the aggregate hierarchy at the demand center level and then latter reconciled with the book
forecasts.
4. For "never out ' items that reoccur each season, a better evaluation of the items costs of either
liquidation due to overstocking or loss sales due to under stocking should be employed.
Implementation:
1. If these are not already a standard practices then: attending fashion shows or researching current
seasonal trends to determine desired colors, surveying the current customers and inquire their
preference, and/or conduct market research studies to help determine current desired color trends.
2. Hire a VP of retail sales operations and appropriate support staff to research potential fertile
markets for new store locations. Start conservatively and add one to two new locations for the first
phase and evaluate the results over a two or three year period. If they are successful and profitable
then additional stores could potentially be opened as desired.
3. Create a

Hong Kong's Economic Forecast
As Hong Kong is a small economy that is highly open to trade, it is also highly susceptible to global
economic shocks. This is most recently evidenced by the GDP slowdown to 1.7% driven by
negative trade developments and the inevitable drop in exports due to the global economic crisis.
However, despite the weak global economy, Hong Kong's growth has rebounded due to the
resilience of domestic demand along with low unemployment, most notably in low–skilled sectors.
Additionally, beneficial fiscal policies providing counter–cyclical support to the economy have
bolstered Hong Kong's economic health. Through such actions as waiving rates for properties,
reducing public housing rents, increasing capital spending, and tax relief, Hong Kong's ... Show
In doing so, countervailing macro–prudential measures should also continue to be employed to
ensure the integrity of the financial system. Under similar duress, there exists the risk of a severe
dislocation of global financial markets; due to the failure of a parent bank for example. Such a
disruption would lead an economic environment of increased risk aversion and stress, ultimately
followed by bank deleveraging. In this environment the price of risk assets, such as equities and
property, would decline inciting a further decrease in confidence and engaging in a spiral of negative
feedback. As conditions worsened, the decrease in confidence would thus cause negative wealth
effects and drop in both consumer and business spending. In order to prevent the occurrence of such
adverse circumstances, officials should focus of the provision of liquidity through preexisting
facilities. Despite these risks to Hong Kong's future, a series integral factors inherent to its Hong
Kong's economic environment should allow them to overcome any potential duress. At the forefront
is Hong Kong's reliably resilient economy that has been weathering the slew of economic
disruptions in recent years. While demand for exports has been dragging down their growth, they
will continue to be bolstered by fiscal policies, low unemployment, along with a consistently strong

Management Forecasts Essay
Article Summary
"Management Earnings Forecasts: A Review and Framework" by D. E. Hirst, L. Koonce and S.
Venkataraman explained the antecedents, characteristics and consequences interlinked with earnings
forecasts. Antecedents are characteristics that are prevalent prior to the consequence such as the
existing environment/firm specific characteristics; and consequence is the outcome from antecedents
and characteristics. Characteristics are the choices the management has deciding on how the report
will be issued. The article guides the reader giving explanations of why management decides to
release earnings forecasts, interactions of the three variables and its findings and how these findings
may impact one period to another. Studies ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Managers who are trying to disclose bad news about the company are more likely to issue earnings
forecasts in order to avoid litigations (Skinner 1994, 1997). In addition, Trump Hotels and Casino,
Inc. (DJT) also excluded a onetime charge while including a onetime gain of $17.2 million,
exceeding the analysts' estimates of $0.54 per share to $0.63 per share on their pro forma reporting
(Burns 2002). The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) responded to their incautious
reporting and DJT acknowledged the findings and consented to unyielding commitments if similar
violations were to take place again. The DJT incident was the first time the commissions took action
against abusing pro forma reporting. Financial forecast data rating agencies such as Standard &
Poor's (S&P) recommended for companies to include in their operating earnings such as
restructuring charges, write–downs of assets, stock–option expenses and research and development
costs and furthermore S&P suggested companies to exclude from operating earnings the
following four categories: 1) goodwill write–downs 2) charges for litigation 3) gains and losses on
asset sales and 4) expenses related to mergers and acquisitions

Comparison and Contrast of Forecast Methods
MGT 554
Operations Management
University of Phoenix
Professor Leonard Enger
May 1, 2006
TABLE OF CONTENT
Cover Page .1
Table of Contents ...2
Seasonal Forecasting ..3
Delphi Method 4
Technological Method 5
Time–series forecasting ...6
Company Forecasting Methods ..7
Conclusion ..8
References ..9
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast, this paper will compare and
contrast the Seasonal, Delphi, Technological and Time Series method of forecasting. Factors to ...
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http://www.ryerson.ca/~mjoppe/ResearchProcess/841TheDelphiMethod.htm
Technological Method
The Technological Forecasting method is used to analyze the market for the life span of an existing
technology to determine if its close to end of like and to see if a new product or technology is ready
to enter an existing market. It is also used to identify competing new technology and to forecast
sales. Before a new innovative product enters into the market Technology Forecasting is one of
several methods used to determine if customers will buy it. The Technology method should always
be used in conjunction with other tools to identify prospective customers, prototypes, focus groups,
interviews, market testing, internet polls and other tools to get a better understanding of the market.

The major techniques for technological forecasting is numeric data and judgmental. Numeric data–
based forecasting extrapolates history by generating statistical fits to historical data. Judgmental
forecasting can also be based on past projection but like the Delphi method it relies on the subjective
judgment of experts. Keep in mind that technological forecasting is most appropriately applied to
capabilities, not to the specific characteristics of specific devices. Other Numeric data techniques are
Trend Extrapolation, Qualitative Approaches, Growth Curves, Envelop Curves and Substitution
models. Techniques used by Judgment–Base method are Monitoring, Network Analysis,

The Talib Examination And Forecast
The Taliban: Examination and Forecast
Chelsey Parlett
Instructor: Teresa Ward
PSM 132
Pikes Peak Community College
December 10, 2016 The Taliban: Examination and Forecast
Background
The Taliban, also known as The Afghan Taliban, is a terrorist organization that occupies large areas
of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Taliban rose to power after the Soviet Union withdrew in 1989. By
1996, an extremist group by the name The Taliban had established themselves, enforcing a rather
strict and brutal for of Sharia law. This was the beginning of what would seem to be a lifetime of
horror for much of Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as the United States and the United Nations.
As most people know, September 11, 2001 was anything but a normal day for the United States.
This is the day that the attacks on the World Trade Centers and the Pentagon occurred. The Taliban
denied responsibility for these attacks, but were always highly suspected. 2001 was thought to be
the fall of the Taliban. This turned out to be quite to opposite. They would continue to wreak havoc
at any and all costs. If nothing else, the Taliban has shown that they will not go down without a
fight. They always seem to get back up and continue to cause damage in any form possible no
matter what they are faced with. Undoubtedly, they have evolved as a terrorist group and are likely
to continue to evolve as the world around them does the same. Every time anyone thinks that they
have seen the fall of the

Pharmacy Forecast Report
Within the pharmacy trends, Pharmacists are always looking to identify emerging trends that will
inevitably have an impact on the practice and patient care. ASHP Midyear Clinical Meeting and the
ASHP Research and Education Foundation had presented the 2017 Pharmacy Forecast report for the
next 5 years. There were a total of 4.4 billion prescriptions that were dispensed in the last year.
Throughout the population Health Management is at least 75% of the health systems, Health System
Operations are at least 50% of health will implement assertive behavior– modification programs.
Therapeutics is at least 10% of patient clinicians will use a combination of genomic information.
The overall enrollment in Pharm D education will decline by at least

Are Judgmental Forecasts Are Psychological Biases?
Judgmental forecasts are predictions made by a group or individual, often with adequate expertise.
They are typically useful when there is a lack of historical data or dealing with a new situation
(Armstrong, 1985). Trends in finance, economic conditions, and medical outcomes can be
forecasted in this way. However, judgmental forecasts are vulnerable to several psychological
biases. Herbert Simon (1955) argued that humans have limited cognitive resources and use mental
rules of thumbs, heuristics, to allow us to produce adequate judgments. Though heuristic approaches
are useful and help us make good enough decisions, it allows bias to seep into our judgments.
Kahneman and Tversky (1974) identified three heuristics that result in ... Show more content on
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Second, the availability heuristic relies on easily recalled memory in judging the probability of a
future occurrence, usually, an overestimation of the probability of the event occurrence. Issues that
are particularly memorable or have received a lot of attention are more salient and perceived as a
more likely occurrence. For instance, public transportation accidents are reported more frequently
compared to private transport accidents, thus people think accidents are more likely on public
transportation than private. In addition, Barber and Odean (2008) found that people tend to buy
stocks that have been in the news recently or stocks that have shown to have exceptionally high
trading volumes. Third, the anchoring and adjustment heuristic explains a bias in judgments that is
influenced by the initial information and is given more weight in the forecasting process.
Adjustment tends to be insufficient. When participants asked what percentage of African countries
in the United Nations greater or less than random number, they would estimate fairly close to the
random number given. When judgmental forecasting from a time series, people tend to use the most
recent value as their anchor (Bolger & Harvey, 1993). The judgment moves in right direction based
on information given, but it does not move enough and produce systematic biases. Other
psychological biases also affect judgmental forecasts. People are overconfident in the accuracy of
their forecasts.

The Forecast Of Construction Industry
Forecast of Construction Industry
At the present time, China's government has focused it policies on projects and reforms, offering
China considerable urban infrastructure opportunities. This means that it is expected that China's
expenditures in construction will continue to grow through 2019, powered by an increase in urban
population, continued industrialisation, expanding foreign investment and rising personal income
levels.
In addition to this, 'the government's effort to sustain growth in the manufacturing sector, improve
the country's infrastructure, expand municipal utilities, and balance regional economic disparity will
help growth in construction spending'. (Freedonia).
Despite this, it is predicted that China's further growth may incur a slowdown and could possibly
reach 'historical lows in the short term, with housing construction registering a decline for the first
time ever' (South Morning China Post). Forecasts for the short–to medium–term future of the market
remain positive as shown below in the table.
Forecasts for selected indicators in China's Construction Sector
Long–Term Forecast
Despite China's immense growth throughout the decades, it is projected that the construction
industry will not continue to grow at it's usual 'peak'. As stated by 'Joe Zhou, (head of research in
China at JLL real estate consultancy), "China has passed the peak in terms of construction activity, l
would say the peak was more lie 2013. Last year (2014), we saw

The Disclosure Quality Of Information Of Securities Analysts
Moreover, securities analysts play the important roles of the users and providers of information and
their sources of information include public information that all analysts know and private
information that is possessed by individual analysts (Barron et al., 1998). Therefore, both the
improvement of the transparency of listed companies ' public information and analysts ' private
information can lead to an increase of the accuracy of analysts ' forecasts. Due to the lower costs of
acquisition, the public information issued by the listed companies that act as the main sources of
information of securities analysts is particularly important among them (Schipper, 1991), scholars '
research also focused on the correlation between the ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
At the same time, this chapter also provides necessary theoretical basis and empirical evidences for
the writing of this dissertation and widens research ideas, which offer more research spaces to the
dissertation. Combined with the writing ideas of the dissertation, this chapter summarizes the
relevant literature about cross listing and the accuracy of analysts ' earnings forecasts and makes
some thorough analysis. It can be seen that both the theoretical and empirical research of cross
listing show a feature of diversification and relevant research reveal many differences, such as
market selection, sample firms, model construction, etc. Most of these studies think that if
enterprises go public in overseas mature markets after they are listed in domestic markets, it will be
beneficial to crossing market barriers, improving the liquidity of stocks, expanding investor base
and improving the degrees of cognition. However, few research concentrate on Chinese market and
it cannot be sure that whether these theories can be used to explain the problems of cross listing of
Chinese companies. In this context, the dissertation will focus on Chinese firms to study the issues
of cross listing and the accuracy of analysts ' earnings forecasts. 2.4 The Motivation for the Research
Question In the late ninety 's

Tornado Forecasts
Currently, the development of spotter networks and conversion radar are use for identification of
tornadoes (Coleman et al. 2011). In developed countries, the use of weather radars have become the
primary method for the identification of tornadoes. The Doppler weather radar is used in the United
States, this system takes measurements of velocity and the radial direction of the storm (Coleman et
al. 2011). New technology development has lead to forecasts of tornadoes before they have made
contact with the ground.
Currently the average tornado warning lead time is 13 minutes (Brotzge & Erickson, 2009). Tornado
forecasts are still unreliable, most warnings are not broadcasted when the tornado is forming or has
formed (Brotzge & Erickson, 2009). ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
In 2008, 3 out of every 4 tornado warnings that were issued were false alarms (Brotzge et al. 2011).
False alarm ratios are highest during non–peak storm periods and lowest during storm times and
days. In a 24–hour period they are highest overnight and morning hours and lowest in the late
afternoon (Brotzge et al. 2011). Seasonally they are highest December–February and late summer,
August and lowest all the other months (Brotzge et al. 2011). Tornado information has increased
since the amount of research has been recorded and analyzed. However, there is more improvements
that are needed to fully predict tornadoes that could have the potential to destroy large areas.
Conclusion:
Although meteorologist hardly acknowledge that their forecasts are not completely accurate, it is
clear that without them the amount of harm would be great. The information of a possible tornado
formation helps the public become prepared to the possibility of a tornado. Tornadoes warning
systems have come a long way from the days where they were inaccurate and unreliable. Lead times
have increased and are becoming more reliable. However, more sensitive technology is needed until
forecasts can become more

The Internet History, Development And Forecast
Homework Assignment #1
Name: Suraj Bhatia
Subject: TELE5330 15890 Data networking
Topic: 'The Internet History, Development and Forecast' by Dr. Leonard Kleinrock
Internet. Interconnection of networks. But it's the former term millions of users use for probably the
greatest invention in the field of technology. Well, that's my opinion. After viewing Dr. Leonard
Kleinrock's speech on 'The Internet History, Development and Forecast' at Infocom 2006, it was
really hard to believe that it took almost a decade for people then to realize its importance. As
mentioned in his speech, though the ground work for Internet was initiated in 1957, it was not till
1966 that ARPA needed an Internet–like network for their functioning. It is quite unimaginable to
think of today's world without having access to the Internet. People are connected to the Internet for
accessing their professional and social content while organizations may have their entire foundation
built on it. It is definitely worth looking into something this huge and important, discussing its
history, assessing the present and preparing for its future. In the next two paragraphs, on the basis of
Dr. Klienrock's presentation I have discussed the impact, be it good or bad, right or wrong the
Internet has had on the way our daily business is conducted.
I like the way Dr. Klienrock has put it, 'It is the people and the culture that has kept the Internet
going on'. He has stated many positives, so let's discuss each one with an

Essay about Business Forecast
Business Forecast
This Paper examines and compares various forecasting techniques used for qualitative and
quantitative business forecasting and their use in Firstlogic Inc., to forecast the demand under
conditions of uncertainty. Time series and Delphi forecasting methods are considered for this
research to evaluate their ability to make effective decisions regarding the future.
Business Forecasting
Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the
knowledge gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will
aid in the achievement of established goals. Forecasting plays a crucial role in today's uncertain
global marketplace. Forecasting is ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
It is in these situations that modern methods of business forecasting can be especially useful.
Modern forecasting methods are usually grouped into two main categories: qualitative methods, and
quantitative methods. Qualitative analysis includes the intuitive and knowledge–based approach as
discussed earlier. The decision maker reviews all of the information available, and then makes an
estimated forecast. Quantitative techniques are used mostly when qualitative information is not
available. In contrast, qualitative techniques are based on an analysis of data (Namvar, 2000, p.8).
Delphi Forecasting Method
Qualitative forecasting techniques are: executive committee, the Delphi method, and surveys of the
sales force, surveys of customers, historical analogy, and market research. The objective of most
Delphi applications is the reliable and creative exploration of ideas or the production of suitable
information for decision–making. The Delphi Method is based on a structured process for collecting
and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of questionnaires interspersed
with controlled opinion feedback (chase, 2003, P471).
The Delphi method is a variation of the executive committee approach. But the interaction is
indirect, iterative and structured. The basic premise of Delphi method is to identify a group of
experts and each of them are given a set of questions or issues,

Zoo Forecasts
For this project, I interviewed my supervisor at the Oregon Zoo Jody Van Riper. Jody is the program
coordinator of the Oregon Zoo UNO (Urban Nature Overnights) program. This program is a part of
a three year paid internship at the zoo, ZAP, (Zoo Animal Presenters). I graduated from the program
last March, and was fortunate enough to get a staff position right after I completed the program!
UNO partners with programs such as IRCO, SUN schools, and Boys & Girls clubs to take kids out
on camping trips during the summer. There are many problems that arise in planning, coordinating,
and executing a 24 hour camping trip for kids that will be lead by a group of teens. Often times the
same problems occur over the years, and Jody uses her previous knowledge and the guess and check
method to try to solve them. If one method doesn't work she approaches the problem form a ... Show
Before overnights, Jody checks the weather forecast to make sure that there won't be any severe
weather conditions such as thunder. If rain is in the forecast, then Jody prepares the teens by giving
them a heads up about potential schedule changes due to the weather. However, if the rain comes
unexpectedly while we are playing games in the field Jody has to improvise. She works with the
staff to develop a plan for the rest of the overnight. Depending the severity of the rain, we may have
to bring the kids under the shelter and have them play games there. Instead of sending the groups
out on hiking trips we may have them have some tent time, or time for board games. Again
depending on the severity of the weather, campfire may have to be on a camp stove under the shelter
instead of in a campfire pit outside. Jody with advice from her staff approaches the problem from a
variety of angles trying to figure out the best

Forecast
Management Excellence Toolkit–Part 4: Improve Your Estimating and Forecasting Effectiveness
March 16, 2011 by Art Petty Leave a Comment 27 Note from Art: Your decisions define you as a
leader and a manager, yet we spend very little time in our busy lives finding ways to improve our
abilities in this area. This Management Excellence Toolkit Series will help you recognize the
challenges and pitfalls of individual and group decision–making and offer ideas on improving
performance for you and your co–workers. Part 1 of this series emphasized the importance of
developing, updating and referencing a Decision Journal. Part 2, focused on understanding how we
make decisions and how various traps and biases often derail us. In Part 3, we ... Show more content
on Helpwriting.net ...
The cost, time–to–market (or implementation) implications are huge! Alternatively, I've observed
over–zealous executive teams declare a time–to–market mandate without consideration of the
project complexities. The pressure on the project teams results in estimates executives "want to
hear," but that have no basis in the reality of the work. As time and cost estimates are missed, the
environment tends to deteriorate into one of finger–pointing, excuse–making and general
dysfunction Fear Impacts Estimates: While fear pushes project estimates out into the future, this
same environment likely results in ultra–conservative sales forecasts on one hand and unrealistic
cost estimates on the other. For anyone accountable for revenue and/or expense numbers, you tend
to take your cue on these numbers from environmental pressures. I've observed managers who felt
pressure to inflate revenue forecasts out of fear of being viewed as naysayers and poor team players,
while at the same time, deflate expense numbers out of fear of being viewed as not having control
over costs. Fear in the workplace creates estimating and forecasting gamesmanship. Prior
Performance May Be a Poor Predictor: Much like the recency effect displayed by the Everest
expedition leaders, we open additional trap doors for our estimating and forecasting approaches by
relying too much on prior performance in spite of changing conditions. The past is

Projections, Forecasts, And Estimates Essay
2.4 Projections, Forecasts, or Estimates The definition of projections, forecasts, and estimates are all
different and should not be used without knowing the exact meanings which are: Projection: the
familiar word for statements that are taken from mathematics and are based on inferences decided in
advance. Forcast: the statement that has the highest probability to happen in the future. Estimate: is
about specific statistics from the past or present statistics. o Estimates fill in the years between two
different census. 3.1.1 Typolography of projection Methods Subective projections are assumptions,
and they stay away from elaborate orderly and procedural methods. They can only show impressions
of predispositions of the later to come population. Objective projections take the quantitative way of
gathering data and use a quatitative strategy to attain a projected outcome. Objection projections
dependo n the selection of the right projection technique. The major projection methods are:
structual method, cohort–component, and the trend extrapolation method. 3.4 Trend Extrapolation
Methods Extending the application of past trends into the time beyond the observation range is the
essence of all the extrapolation methods. The extrapolation method is best used for modest sized
population projections that have low data needs , inexpensive, and able to be used effortlessly.
Sometimes data, such as population trends is easier to see and understand in graphical form. A
simple

Analysis Of The Pro Forecast
Yes. This is a magazine. A snapshot in time. A static depiction of a single point –– a moment that has
passed since it you opened it and began reading these very words.
So, it's already outdated.
Yeah. ... We've heard this before.
In fact, since this is the 28th annual edition of the Pro Forecast, it's safe to say we've heard it each of
the 27 previous seasons.
We've kind of figured out how to make it work. And you're about to benefit from that in multiple
ways.
For starters, we've learned over time to focus on the "how" as much as if not more than on the
"who."
Sure, we have rankings and other content based on the best info available as we went to press.
Things will change. Heck, things certainly have changed. And we have you ... Show more content
That content includes weekly rankings based on matchups, in–depth team–by–team analysis and
constant up–to–the–minute news updates along with a wide range of weekly strategy articles and
advice columns for both season–long and daily fantasy players, tools (including DFS lineup
generators) and an array of exclusive, proprietary statistics you won't find anywhere else.
So what about this magazine?
As I mentioned, we've come to realize the obvious: Focus on the "how."
Learn "how" to understand, access and use snap count and target data to your advantage when the
season begins; learn "how" off–season coaching and personnel changes will impact teams going
forward; learn "how" to envision a range of outcomes for a given player based on his expected draft
position; learn "how" to maximize your roster using anticipated strength of schedule; learn "how" to
identify value and potential busts using specific examples for each and every NFL team; learn
"how" to view the incoming rookie class from both a Dynasty and redraft perspective; and learn
"how" to leverage all this knowledge in auction, Dynasty, keeper and Individual Defensive Player

(IDP) formats.
There's some "why" involved, too.
Understand "why" drafting a quarterback early can set your team back before the season even starts
and learn "why" 370 touches the previous season have had an historic impact on NFL (and fantasy)
running backs.
Then there are the rankings, which

Real And Nominal Gdp Forecast
Real and Nominal GDP Forecasts Taking on account the historical data provided in the forecasts
developed by our Economic Research Group, we compared this year's forecasts with the
performance of the economy in the past using gross domestic product. Gross domestic product,
"measures the monetary value of final goods and services–that is, those that are bought by the final
user–produced in a country in a given period of time (say a quarter or a year)" according to the
International Monetary Fund. Based on this comparison, we determined that there has been a steady
increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in terms of Current Dollars, but there is a fluctuation
between quarters under Chained Dollars GDP. Current Dollars, also known as Nominal GDP,
accounts for inflation changes and uses current market prices while Chained Dollars, known as Real
GDP, remove the effects of inflation in its calculation and use prices from a base year. Using this
data, we can project the real growth rate for 2006 will decrease –2.56% quarterly, and –10.25%
within the year, shown in Exhibit 2b. We calculate the average growth rate using Real GDP because
in the "United States the growth rate that the BEA reports is a quarter–on–quarter growth rate, which
is the growth in real GDP from one–quarter to the next," according to The Motley Fool. These
percentages tell us that there has been a significant drop in real growth rates due to consumer
confidence falling for the second month straight.

Apple Forecast
In the article "Apple Forecasts First Sales Drop Since 2003 on iPhone Slowdown" by Adam
Satariano he discusses many factors contributing to Apple's first sales decline in over 13 years and
what steps they plan to take to recover. Apple's revenue was expected to produce $55.5 billion this
quarter but the company believes it will be $50–$53 billion dollars (Satariano, "Apple Forecast").
This decreased is believed to show signs of saturation in the smart phone market. Along with
iPhones, Apple also had a pause in its iPad and Mac sales last quarter (Satariano, "Apple Forecast").
Apple is still overwhelmingly profitable but they cannot rely on the adoption of smart phones to
carry the iPhone sales anymore.
The iPhone's 6S and 6S Plus were released

Weather Forecast Research Paper
Throughout this assignment I have learned that there are many things that go into making a weather
forecast. I realized that it takes a lot of research to precisely forecast the high and low temperatures
as well as the weather and surface features for each day. There are a variety of models to choose
from for weather forecasting, but I have to figure out which one was best based on my atmospheric
situation.
Due to the fact that I live in Missouri I found it difficult to use some of the methods due to the fact
that the weather is constantly changing. I originally thought I could use the Persistence Forecasting
Model, but then I realized that the weather changes to often for it to be the same each day. It would
have been a better option if we ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
So I began to look up the long–term average of weather conditions for each day in order to predict
the weather for the given day. Most of the time it was pretty precise but it could have been better.
Out of the six models I found the Numerical Model to be the best choices when creating a forecast
since it seemed to be the most accurate, due to the fact that it measures uses calculations and takes
into consideration the pressure, temperature, winds, humidity, clouds and precipitation. Out of all
the numerical models I chose to specifically use the North American Mesoscale model (NAM)
because it was specific for my atmospheric situation.
Despite using the models for forecasting, I learned you have to take into consideration the different
surface features including the different types of fronts and pressure systems.
Overall, I have learned that being a meteorologist is not the path for me. The different models of
forecasting are all very different and often hard to read. It takes a lot of time and patients to look
through all the different models and understand them. I am a type of person who likes immediate
answer and rather than having to go through multiple steps to figure out one

Curreny Forecast Essay
EFB312 – International Finance
Currency Forecasting Project
Dora Chou n9248871
Queensland University of Technology
In the ever–changing financial markets, people should diversify their investments to earn the
maximum profit. Distributing different portion of money into selected currencies is one of the
approaches to make money. For the past many years, scholars have developed a number of methods
to predict exchange rates. As a speculator, I am going to use three measures including Asset Market
Approach,
Relative PPP, and International Fisher Effect for currency forecasting. From the fundamental
perspective, Asset Market Approach considers economic growth, unemployment rate, political risk,
etc. I would like to use Relative PPP ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Moreover, dwelling investment is
2
expected to increase noticeably as a share of GDP. The conditions for labour market remain
subdued, and the unemployment rate is probably to rise to a higher level in a sustained way until
2016. (RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, 2014 August) In conclusion, USD is likely to be the best
target currency to invest with stable Real
GDP growth and downward trend in unemployment rate.
Relative

Advantages And Disadvantages Of Density Forecasts
The density forecast of a random variable is an estimation based on the past observed data. This is a
symmetric interval prediction which means that the outcomes will fall into an interval that is a band
of plus/minus a fixed times of standard errors. The estimation provides a probability distribution of
all possible future values of that variable. Over the past decades, the price density forecast has been
widely used to study microeconomic and financial issues. Forecasting the future development of the
economy is of great importance for proper government monetary decisions and individual risk
management. A good macroeconomic density forecast presents a subjective description of
inflationary pressure and other information related to economics. ... Show more content on
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Although the methods they first used have many drawbacks, these analyses still help governments in
understanding the macroeconomic environment and making adjustments to current monetary policy.
The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomics forecasts in the US is the Survey of Professional
Forecasters (SPF) whose name changed to ASA–NBER survey later (Diebold, Tay and Wallis,

Inventory and Forecast
3. Based on the description in the text and the evidence in the Exhibits 6 and 9, what went wrong
with the SF–6000 forecast? Launching the first 8 megapixel sensor and 10x zoom camera on the
market was a big accomplishment for Leitax. On their official press release, the SF–6000 was
named as an "a tool for serious photographers". There were huge expectations about the product and
everyone at the company was pretty excited about it. Their biggest challenge was the forecast for a
new product with huge expectations and great reviews. It was no easy task given all the parts
involved were blinded by excitement, and according to their new model of forecast, the final
number should be a consensus between all the interested functions. Leitax ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
Ignoring capacity was an issue. By doing that, if maxim capacity was reached, there was a huge
possibility of backordering and that would translate in decrease of velocity, inaccurate planning and
worse: unhappy customer. Capacity should considered into forecast and planning. The CP should
focus on sell in as it is more attractive to the retailers, the product is closer to final customer so there
is improvement on the supply chain, not to mention the costs over the inventory. Also, the
compensation metric for sales used should be the percentage of sell in that became sell through. This
way, Leitax would make sure that they are not boosting the numbers as they are compensated by the
percentage of sell in that became sell through. The company would have more accurate numbers and
it would not incur on permanent inventory costs as they forecast would be more accurate. CP should
not be reviewed monthly basis, but it should be a intermediate range term and check point every
quarterly. On the other hand, sales, marketing and production should work closely on a weekly,
monthly basis to determine the best course of action to achieve the optimal balance between supply
and demand while meeting the expected forecast. They also should be able to provide an accurate
response and predict if anything had changed and it needed to be reviewed by DMS. that brought
formalityformality to the process and a new process where everyone would agree,

Future Forecasts In Social Work
As a practicing social worker, I will continuously discover, appraise, and attend to changing locales,
populations, scientific and technological developments, and emerging societal trends to provide
relevant services by gaining a clear understanding of the future forecasts that are intended to predict
changes in trends that will in the future change the needs of individuals, groups, and communities.
To gain a clear understanding through future forecasts I will need to analyze the purpose of the
future forecasts, assess the underlying assumptions and credibility of source information, consider
the influences of socioeconomic conditions, have minimal expectations for the numbers to speak for
themselves, and assess the probability of surprise events (Chapin, 2014, p. 519). An Increased
understanding and knowledge regarding future forecasts will provide an understanding of how
programs and policies will ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Social workers must effectively participate in electoral politics by voting, organizing debates,
running for office, campaigning, lobbying, and conducting policy–related research to present to
policy writers (Chapin, 2014, p. 551). As a practicing social worker I will register to vote,
communicate my concerns regarding current and future policies to elected officials, and encourage
family members, friends, and clients to increase their knowledge on the elected candidates stances
on social policies that directly relate to their life or the community as a whole and to have their
voices heard through the voting process. In addition to voting, I would consider campaigning for
candidates that are have similar values, ethics, and concerns I have regarding social

Budgets and Forecasts
Introduction
Budgets and Forecasts are predictions of future income and expenses and cash flow. They also
predict future performance with financial forecasts and projections and with financial models.
Why Budget and Forecast? Budgets and forecasts provide a feasibility analysis. They can help
develop a business model, review the company's key assumptions, and identify resource and capital
needs. Budgets and forecasts can be used to find funding. They demonstrate the potential of the
business to investors and lenders. Budgets and forecasts can also be used as a management tool.
They can help the organization establish milestones and require accountability for accomplishing the
milestones. They can help identify risks and show ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The company's success depends on our employees performing at the top of their game each and
every day.
Though I am not from the Sales Department, I was able to gather some research about the budgeting
and forecasting of our Sales Group Personnel. One important forecast is the total personnel required
to support the company's desired revenue from sales. The company's revenues result from sales thus
the company should start with the desired revenue in year 5. From year 5 subtract 40% from each
prior year. On the basis of the research, estimate the number of sales each sales person will make
each year. From that the sales group can calculate number of salespeople required.
After my organization make the forecast, the department will complete a sensitivity analysis by
adjusting each major item estimated by 10% plus or minus. Examine the impact on revenues, profit,
and cash needs. Remember that most operating expenses are roughly proportional to personnel
headcount. These are the company's variable expenses such as salaries, benefits, employment taxes,
furniture, computers, rent, supplies, utilities, training, travel, meals, training, and dues. Other non–
variable expenses may or may not be proportional such as professional services, subcontractors,
advertising, and trade shows.
The company uses the forecasts to compare to others in the industry by such things as revenue per
employee, revenue per salesperson, gross margin,

Business Forecast
Abstract
This Paper examines and compares various forecasting techniques used for qualitative and
quantitative business forecasting and their use in Firstlogic Inc., to forecast the demand under
conditions of uncertainty. Time series and Delphi forecasting methods are considered for this
research to evaluate their ability to make effective decisions regarding the future.
Business Forecasting
Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the
knowledge gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will
aid in the achievement of established goals. Forecasting plays a crucial role in today 's uncertain
global marketplace. Forecasting is traditionally ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
This group then feeds back the responses to other members of the group, while never giving away
the identity of the response. The experts are then asked to respond again, after reviewing the
responses of other respondents. This process may continue until a consensus is reached among the
group. The group may be united to form a final consensus (Namvar, 2000, p.8). Time Series
Forecasting Method
Time series techniques are the most popular quantitative method. These techniques use statistical
methods for projecting from historical data. Quantitative techniques are preferred when appropriate
data are available. The main assumption is that the historical pattern will continue into the future.
The two main types of time series forecasting are average smoothing and exponential smoothing.
The moving average is simply a series of arithmetic averages. Predicting sales for next year is
simple. The actual sales for a certain number of years is added, and then divided by the number of
years used to get the moving average. A weighted moving average is obtained by assigning a
specific weight to previous years. The sum of all weights must equal one. Recent years are given a
higher weight (Namvar, 2000, p.13).
Exponential smoothing is simply a subtype of the weighted moving average. A new forecast is a
weighted sum of actual variables (usually sales) in the current year and the weighted forecast of

Essay on Pfizer Macroeconomic Forecast
Macroeconomic Forecast
Pfizer, Inc.
March 14, 2005
Abstract
This paper is a Macroeconomic Forecast Outline of Pfizer, Inc. This outline will identify main
economic indicators for Pfizer as a business entity and as a representative of pharmaceutical
industry. This paper will identify sources of various data collected based on economical activity and
relationships between different economical indicators.
Main Economic Indicators
The purpose of economic indicators is to provide for researchers and analysts the ability to
interpreter economic data. Economic indicators are the main source of prediction of market
behavior. They are also detailed explanations of how to analyze various changes over a business
cycle.
There are very many ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The Company's top five medicines—Lipitor, Norvasc, Zoloft, Celebrex, and Neurontin—each
delivered at least $2 billion in revenues in 2004, while Zithromax, Viagra, Zyrtec, Bextra and
Xalatan/Xalcom each surpassed $1 billion. Changes in foreign exchange rates increased total
revenues in 2004 by $1,422 million or 3.2% compared to the same period in 2003. The foreign
exchange impact on 2004 and 2003 revenue growth was due to the weakening of the U.S. dollar
relative to many foreign currencies, especially the Euro that accounted for about half of the impact
in 2004.
Research and Development is one of the most important characteristics of a pharmaceutical
company. It indicates how much the company spends on new products research and analysis. In
2004 Pfizer has launched six new products, received FDA approvals for fourteen new drugs and
submitted new drug applications for nine more drugs. There are also five ongoing clinical trials.
Cost and expenses are also considered as vital economical indicators. Cost is "the total money, time
and resources associated with a purchase or activity."
(http://www.investorwords.com/1148/cost.html) Expenses are "any cost of doing business resulting
from revenue–generating activities." (http://www.investorwords.com/1842/expense.htmlz0
Based on Pfizer's 2004

Lost Sales Forecast Essay
TERM– PAPER
Lost Sales Forecast
Table of Contents
Introduction 3
Carlson Department Store Sales data for September 1992 through August 1996 4
Countywide Department Stores Sales data for September 1992 through August 1996 5
Choosing the appropriate forecasting method 6
Trend and Seasonal Components in Forecasting 7
An estimate of lost sales for the Carlson Department Store 10
Conclusion 10
Introduction
The Carlson Department Store suffered heavy damage when a hurricane struck on August 31, 1996.
The store was closed for four months (September 1996 through December 1996) causing our sales
drop to $0. The task of this report is to analyze sales in ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
[pic]
From the above graph one can also observe that in past 3 years (years 1993–1995) the volume of
sales in the month of September went down, and slowly went up again in October and November
and usually reached its peak in December. The unusual behavior in September 1996 pulls our
attention. For the first time in 4 years history we observe that the sales volume in September
compared to August sales went up by 11.7 % whereas in September 1993 they were down by 8.6%,
in September 1994 down by 15.3%, and in September 1995 actually down by 21.8%. The question
is why

Snow Forecast Research Paper
Snow forecast as winter storms arrive
A blast of freezing air will blast Italy this weekend, sending temperatures plummeting and bringing
stormy weather and snow to low–lying areas of central–south Italy.
So far, the winter has been exceptionally mild: a trend which is expected to last until the weekend,
with nighttime temperatures staying in double figures and reaching highs of 20 degrees Celcius in
Sicily on Friday.
But over the weekend atmospheric temperatures across the country will plunge by some 15 degrees
Celcius on Saturday – a change which will bring winds of up to 100 kmph, hailstones and snow,
across the center and south of Italy.
Italy's northern regions will escape the bad weather, remaining icy but dry. Temperatures of –4

Production Planning And Control : Hugo Costa Campbel...
MANF 4615 PRODUCTION PLANNING & CONTROL Student: Hugo Costa Campbel Student
number: z5007692 Due date: 25/08/2014 Assignment 1 Question 1: The customer order decoupling
point is described as the point at which demand changes from independent to dependant. What does
this mean and why is this important to managers? The demand can be divided in two different types:
– The independent demand depends on the market conditions and it is difficult to control and must
be forecast. Even though the company can interfere or stimulate this demand through some events
such as promotions or price reductions, the final amount will depend on the item demanded in the
market. Thus, companies will have to supply the demand without having any advance concrete
visibility of consumer requests. In most cases, customer demands are independent demands; – The
dependent demand is relatively predictable because it depends on a few factors to happen. Demand
of components in the assembly of a product is often dependent demand and can be calculated
although the plans may need to change. The customer order decoupling point (CODP) is the point at
which demands change from independent to dependent. In other words, it is defined as the point in
the value chain for a product, where the product is linked to a specific customer order. The CODP is
also the last point at which inventory is held. Thus, the inventory at the CODP is a strategic stock–
point. Different manufacturing situations such as

Short-Range Forecasts
1. Skin temperature (blank 1), moisture (blank 2). 2. Short–range forecast is assumed to be good
background for the analysis (blank 1), corrections to the short–range forecast are made into an
analysis that has been smoothed to the model resolution (blank 2). 3. Previous short–range forecast
(blank 1), the analysis increment fields (blank 2). 4. The first guess is a useful starting point for the
DA system. For one reason, because it has previous short–range forecasts to go off of. Short–range
forecasts are assumed to be good background for this analysis. This allows information from older
observations to be available, then permits combining observations of different parameters, sources
and quality for comparison. This also helps ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
There are different methods for models to emulate surfaces. Usually, the model will choose the most
common surface type in the particular grid box and that is the one that, "wins" or the model uses.
This means that the model is only represented by that particular type of surface. The other method is
the model finding the average albedo, soil types, surface roughness, and different characteristics to
average out to find what the surface is. However, we parameterize and the model uses the most
frequent type of surface of the year to represent. Initially we don't want to waste computing power
on the different types of surfaces, that is why these two types of methods for figuring model surfaces
is used. 8. Radiation models should be concerned with melting snow because of the different
albedos (shortwave radiation). New bright white snow has a high albedo, meaning it reflects more
incoming solar radiation. Old snow becomes darker and not as bright over time. This will cause a
low albedo where more energy is absorbed. Melting snow causes part of the ground to be exposed,
so this can affect the radiation differently for portions of the ground that do have snow on it vs.
portions of the ground that don't have snow cover. 9. There are complications when it comes to
models dealing with vegetation as one large plant being the entire surface for the grid box. First of
all, this causes effects on the surface and boundary layer temperatures, moisture, and other forecast
factors.

Auditing: Revenue and Expense Forecast Essay
ACC 235: Auditing EXHIBIT 4.53 Dunder–Mifflin, Inc., Prior Year (Audited), Forecast Current
Year, Current Year Actual (Unaudited) Prior year Forecast Current Year Revenue and Expense: Sales
(net) $9,000,000 $9,900,000 $9,720,000 Cost of Goods Sold 6,296,000 6,926,000 7,000,000 Gross
Margin 2,704,000 2,974,000 2,720,000 General Expense 2,044,000 2,000,000 2,003,000
Depreciation 300,000 334,000 334,000 Operating Income $360,000 $640,000 $383,000 Interest
Expense 60,000 110,000 75,000 Income Taxes (40%) 120,000 212,000 123,200 Net Income
$180,000 $318,000 $184,800 Assets: Cash $600,000 $880,000 $690,800 Accounts Receivable
500,000 600,000 900,000 Allowance for Doubtful Accounts ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
Since Dunder–Mifflin planned to sell stock for permanent financing, the bank made the loan due on
December 31 of the following year. Interest is payable each calender quarter on October 1 of the
current year, and January 1, April 1, July 1, October 1, and December 31 of the following year. The
auditors' interviews with Dunder–Mifflin's management near the end of the current year produced
the following information: The facilities did not cost as much as previously anticipated. However,
sales were slow and the company granted more liberal return privilege terms than in the prior year.
Officers wanted to generate significant income to impress First Bank and to preserve the company
dividend ($120,000 paid in the prior year).The production managers had targeted inventory levels
for a 4.0 turnover ratio and were largely successful even though prices of materials and supplies had
risen about 2 percent relative to sales dollar volume. The new facilities were depreciated using a 25–
year life from the date of opening. Dunder–Mifflin has now produced the current–year financial
statements (Exhibit 4.53, column labeled "current year") for the auditors' work on the current audit.
Required: Perform preliminary analytical procedures analysis on the current–year unaudited
financial statements for the purpose of identifying accounts that you want to investigate

Ll Bean Case Essay
L.L. Bean has adopted a two stage ordering process for products with "one–shot" commitments
(i.e. products that they get to order only once because of long supplier lead times). First they
determine a forecast for an item and then they have a process for converting that forecast into an
order quantity.
Questions
1. How significant (quantitatively) of a problem is the mismatch between supply and demand for
L.L. Bean?
From the first page of the case we have an estimate of $11 million cost of lost sales and backorders
and $10 million associated with having too much of the wrong inventory. These costs are stated as
being a conservative estimate.
2. On the course website is an Excel file that contains demand and forecast data for a ... Show more
Bean manages to derive the correct forecast, what do you think about their ordering process? (You
may wish to begin with Mark Fasold's concerns at the end of the case. Also, think about Rol
Fessenden's concern about estimating contribution margin and liquidation costs.)
L.L. Beans approach to a one shot order increases the risk of lost sales due to insufficient inventory
as well as increases the risks of higher costs due to excessive inventory. The case indicates that lead
times are significantly long from their suppliers (in the order of 8 to 12 weeks). We are not clear on
the size of these orders but assuming these are mostly a one shot batch, it is feasible to estimate that
these lead times would be reduced for a smaller quantity per order and more frequent orders.
Although this approach would increase the transactional costs with suppliers (because a higher
volume of individual orders would be placed at the supplier) it might generate significantly more
impactful benefits such as:
Reduced lead times for smaller order quantities
Reduced inventory at L.L. Bean
Minimize risks due to uncertain demand. L.L. Bean would be able to manage ordering process and
quantities based on actual demand and adjust more effectively.
Reduced need for higher capacity at the supplier. This would be reduced because suppliers would
not need to size their operations to deliver on the "one shot large volume order" and would be able
to space these in time with orders at

The Western Forecast Of The Post World War
The Western Forecast of the Post–World War 1 Eastern Climate Property. A bittersweet fruit of the
industrialist but a purely bitter fruit of the western imperialist. Leaving behind the European World
War I battlefield, the western imperialist continues his march toward the East with exploitive
weapons in both hands. At the far Eastern border lies a red army under the leadership of Mao Tse–
tung but further down south, Mahatma Gandhi and his followers stand adamantly in a show of
nonviolent resistance. Regardless of their approach, both Mao and Gandhi were freedom fighters
whose anti–imperialist attitudes were shaped by western thinkers and approaches to revolution were
somewhat governed by their surrounding environment. Mao was influenced ... Show more content
This opposition toward imperialists' oppression of the working–class can be seen in Mao's "A Single
Spark Can Start a Prairie Fire." Mao states here: In the wake of the contradiction between
imperialism and China 's national industry comes the failure of the Chinese industrialists to obtain
concessions from the imperialists, which sharpens the contradiction between the Chinese
bourgeoisie and the Chinese working class, with the Chinese capitalists trying to find a way out by
frantically exploiting the workers and with the workers resisting.3 In other words, the animosity
among and between imperial countries and Chinese upper classes has toxic downstream
consequences, resulting in the increased exploitation of the proletariat. Mao indicates that the roots
of such exploitation are "concessions," so like Marx, Mao blames property for imperialist greed.
Whether this "war–like" competition in China is meant then to define a clear foreign owner of land
or foreign friends of upper Chinese classes is not relevant. What matters most to Mao is that this
foreign–local competition in China has resulted in the further oppression of the lower rank
populations, and that gives the Chinese reason to oppose imperialism. Mao and Marx thus share a
concern for personal greed, as personal greed not only promotes

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