Johan Swinnen, David Laborde Debucquet, Xiaobo Zhang, Purnima Menon, and James Thurlow POLICY SEMINAR Virtual Event - COVID-19: Implications for Global and Country-Level Food Security, Nutrition, and Poverty APR 14, 2020 - 12:15 PM TO 01:15 PM EDT

2. Global implications for food
security and poverty
David Laborde Debucquet
Senior Research Fellow
International Food Policy Research Institute
April 14, 2020

3. “With the banning of gatherings
to fight Covid-19, I do not know
how we will meet production
targets. This is a real worry
especially since we grow half the
rice consumed in Mali.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52002734
India's poorest 'fear hunger may kill us before coronavirus'
How to get a
Food Security
Crisis out of a
Health Crisis?
"I earn 600 rupees ($8; £6.50)
every day and I have five people
to feed. We will run out of food
in a few days. I know the risk of
coronavirus, but I can't see my
children hungry," he said
(construction worker).
People are stockpiling and panic-buying
because there is this misconception that
shelter-in-place means we cannot leave the
house for any reason. That’s when people
take to hoarding.”
Economic
Crisis
Supply
Disruption
Panics

4. Poverty will drive food insecurity
20%
15%
23%
15% 15%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Total
Population
Rural
Population
Total
Population
Rural
Population
Total
Population
Rural
Population
World Africa South of Sahara South Asia
RelativeIncreaseinthenumberofpoorpeople
AdditionalPoorpeople($1.90,povertyine)
Increase in number of poor people ($1.90 poverty line)
Relative increase in the number of poor
Global GDP:
5.1% of lost
growth
Transitory
poverty
shock, but
potential
hysteresis
Source: MIRAGRODEP Simulations, Laborde, Martin and Vos, 2020

5. Global Markets are well supplied
https://public.tableau.com/profile/laborde6680#!/vizhome/MonitoringProductionStocks_basedon_USDAPSD/PSD_USDA
Prices Stocks
Source: International Grains Council (IGC), AMIS website

6. Panics and Uncooperative policies
https://public.tableau.com/profile/laborde6680#!/vizhome/ExportRestrictionsTracker/FoodExportRestrictionsTracker?publish=yes
Source : Laborde and Parent (2020)

7. Developments in China and
implications for food security
and poverty
Xiaobo Zhang
Senior Research Fellow
International Food Policy Research Institute
April 14, 2020

8. Outline
 How did China solve the food problem under the lockdown?
 Impact on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in general and
agribusiness in particular

9. Delivery Drivers Keep China Running During
the COVID-19 Pandemic
 3 million motorcycle delivery
drivers
 400% increase in grocery
delivery
 More than 500 million customers

10. Importance of small and medium enterprises (SMEs)
 90% of employment
 80% of export
 70% of GDP
 60% of tax revenues
 China accounted for 19% of GDP growth in 2019. China’s SMEs
contributed to 13.3% (19*0.7) of worldwide GDP growth.

11. Rapid follow-up survey on SMEs
 On February 11-16, we launched a rapid phone interview with a
representative sample of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)
from the Enterprise Survey for Innovation and Entrepreneurship in
China (ESIEC) we conducted in 2017-2019.
 As of February 10 (official time of opening business outside Hubei
province), about 80% of SMEs didn’t resume production. The direct
loss of shutting down 80% of SMEs for a month=0.66 trillion US
dollars.
 14 percent of enterprises would be unable to last beyond a month with
their current cash flow (impact on unemployment=14*90%=12.6%),
while 50 percent wouldn’t be able to last beyond three months.

12. Agribusiness suffered the most
from logistic disruptions
Villages blocked roads
ESIEC COVID-19 Rapid Phone Survey (2020)

13. Liu Decheng, a bee keeper of 20 years, committed suicide on
February 13
Because roads were blocked, his bees were starving to death
Without pollination, the yield of many cash crops would decline.

14. Developments in India and
implications for food security
and nutrition
Purnima Menon
Senior Research Fellow
International Food Policy Research Institute
April 14, 2020

15. 1. Malnutrition in India could have implications for COVID19’s
health impacts. The intersection of undernutrition and
COVID19 is uncharted territory for the disease itself so far.
Overweight or obesity among men, 2016Stunting among children < 5 years, 2016
Figures: IFPRI analysis of data from 2016.

16. 2. COVID19’s impact on malnutrition in India will likely be
through multiple pathways in short, medium and long term;
social inequities will contribute to differential impacts
Hunger, food security
Care and care resources
Health care and sanitation
Poverty, inequity
COVID19 actions to date:
 Lockdown (economy-wide
impacts on income/wages,
migration, food supply and
food prices)
 Changes to health and
nutrition programs and
services
 Changes to social
protection programs
Diet quality
Health/illness
Malnutrition