This document summarizes the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on global food security and poverty. It notes that social distancing measures have disrupted international transport and trade, lowering incomes and demand. Data shows increasing self-reported stress levels and reliance on savings in Ethiopia. Estimates indicate the pandemic could increase the global number of extremely poor people by over 100 million by 2022. Policies are needed to strengthen social safety nets, keep food supply chains open, and assess the crisis's effects on competition.

1. Covid-19, food security and poverty: 2020
and beyond
A globalized crisis or a crisis of the globalization?
20th October 2020,
David Laborde
International Food Policy Research Institute, IFPRI
The 61st Annual Conference of the Italian Economic Association
The views expressed in this presentation are
those of the presenters and do not necessarily
represent those of IFPRI, nor of CGIAR, BMGF,
USAID, or other funding agencies

2. From Health to
Economic to
Food Crisis?
Economic
Crisis
Supply
Disruptions
India: "I earn 600 rupees a day and have five people to
feed. We will run out of food in a few days."
US: Greater Pittsburgh Community Food Bank, at a
drive thru distribution in downtown Pittsburgh
Mali: "With bans on gatherings to fight Covid-19, I do
not know how we will meet production targets."
US: meatpacking plants close amid COVID-19
pandemic
Philippines: Manila, Grocery shop March
16, after announcement lockdown
Panics
US: California, Trader Joe's grocery
shop: pasta and canned food. March 13

3. A few facts
Macroeconomics
Logistics
Policies

4. Social Distancing has changed people behavior:
Less work, Lower income, Lower demand and different
habits

5. International transportation
has been heavily disrupted
Volume
Prices

6. Understanding the macroeconomic vulnerability of Africa:
Trade in Goods – Tourism - Remittances

7. Current Account: Drivers and Consequences

8. Tracking agricultural trade export restrictions over time
Source: IFPRI Export Restriction Tracker (Laborde and al. 2020)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
3/23/2020 4/23/2020 5/23/2020 6/23/2020
ShareofGlobalTradeinCalories
NumberofCountries
Date
Food related Export Restrictions
Number of Countries Share of Global Trade in Calories
Still, limited number of
restrictions compared to
2007/2008
[1/4 of overall restrictions]
But weak transparency, only
10% notified in a reasonable
amount of time
Share of calories
imported impacted

9. Self-reported pandemic impacts in Ethiopia
Aspect of the COVID-19 crisis that has the greatest impact on
your household, June
Source: De Braw and al. 2020
Self-reported stress level, by household wealth

10. Main coping mechanisms were to rely on savings -- or to
cut food or non-food consumption (Ethiopia)
Source: De Braw and al. 2020

11. So, what happened to agricultural trade (example with
EU exports)

12. And some estimations

13. How to assess impacts on income, poverty, hunger and
nutrition?

14. https://www.ifpri.org/blog/poverty-and-food-insecurity-could-grow-dramatically-covid-19-spreads

15. Additional number of extremely poor people (global,
$1.99 poverty line)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
No-Covid19 V shaped W shaped U Shaped
Millionspeople
2020
2021
2022
Source: MIRAGRODEP simulations

16. Coping mechanisms by eating less
nutritious food

17. Rise in unaffordability of nutritious and healthy diets
592 719
1,353 1,425
496
542
704 726
114
145
442
528
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
No-Covid19 Covid-19 No-Covid19 Covid-19
Nutrient Diets Healthy Diets
Millionpeople
Rest of LMIC
Latin America
East Asia
Africa South of Sahara
South Asia
+17%
+220 mio
+6%
+141
mio
* excl. China
*
Source: MIRAGRODEP simulations

18. Policies are needed
 Strong economic stimulus to tackle inequalities during the crisis
 Financial support to developing countries (for social safety nets, food supply
chain investments)
 “Green lanes” for food supply chains (open trade, allow labor mobility)
 Smart social distancing
 Assessment of the crisis on competition
 More at
o https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6503/500
o https://www.ifpri.org/project/covid-19-food-trade-policy-tracker
o https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342068871_Estimating_the_Poverty_Impact_of
_COVID-19_The_MIRAGRODEP_and_POVANA_frameworks_1
o https://ceres2030.org/shorthand_story/10-bn-needed-to-avert-the-covid-19-hunger-crisis/
o And IFPRI blog collection: https://www.ifpri.org/covid-19