2023 Global Report on Food Crises: Joint Analysis for Better Decisions
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Sara McHattie IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES Facilitating Anticipatory Action with Improved Early Warning Guidance Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) SEP 26, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT
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2023 Global Report on Food Crises: Joint Analysis for Better Decisions
- 2. About this GRFC 2023 Mid-Year Update: Jan- Aug 2023 data Identifies emerging needs and informs strategic discussion Findings are independent, neutral and consensus-based Comparable year on year Produced with 16 partners
- 3. Countries covered in this report: 48 food crisis countries with 2023 data Many countries do not yet have 2023 data, including Ukraine, Myanmar, Syria and Palestine.
- 4. High levels of acute food insecurity persist 21% of analysed population still in need of urgent humanitarian food assistance 16% expansion in analysis coverage 21.6 million/10% more people in need of urgent humanitarian food assistance In these 48 countries compared to 2022:
- 5. People in need of urgent humanitarian food assistance Breakdown by IPC/CH phase (39 countries) In these 48 countries so far in 2023:
- 6. 42 700 1 800 2 500 40 400 214 000 43 000 87 000 0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 BURKINA FASO MALI SOMALIA SOUTH SUDAN Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5) – 130 000 people Nigeria, Haiti and Yemen had populations in this phase in 2022. BURKINA FASO MALI SOMALIA SOUTH SUDAN
- 7. People in IPC/CH Phase 2 (Stressed) 285M people are in Stressed (IPC/CH Phase 2) 32 million more people than in 2022
- 8. Year on year changes: increases in number due to new shocks and in protracted crises
- 9. Year on year changes: decreases in numbers, but not always improvement
- 10. Drivers of Acute Food Insecurity Conflict/ Insecurity Economic shocks Weather extremes
- 11. The overall situation is not improving and the global food crisis is more and more of a protracted nature 2023 numbers will go up: more analyses covering more countries Funding levels are decreasing New shocks are superimposed on persisting global drivers: inflation and high food prices, climate change
- 12. GRFC and Early Warning Systems Data and analysis: comprehensive analysis countries in food crises -highlights countries of concern that require investment Trends: Analysis of trends, changes in magnitude/prevalence, changing geographic distribution Root causes: Analyses main drivers and how they evolve over time Regular updates: Bi-annual global reporting, regional reports
Editor's Notes
- Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for joining us.
- Data available on acute food insecurity – that is people in need of humanitarian assistance- between January Why: Maintain attention on the high levels of acute food insecurity around the world. Findings are independent, neutral and consensus based. GRFC is based on partnership- produced in collaboration with 16 partners: Technical agencies, regional governments, and UN organisations
- Dots are where there are refugee or migrant populations identified as being in food crises 3: Data gaps are consistent through the years: South America- particularly migrant populations Eritrea DPRK Fifteen countries for which there is no data. 10 of which were included in the main report. Ten countries not counted in the GRFC amounting to 41 million people.
- Because of continued drivers of food insecurity Overall changes in 48 food-crises countries between 2022 and 2023 IPC/CH Phase 3 and above require urgent humanitarian assistance to save lives and livelihoods. Expansion of analysis in Bangladesh, Angola, Ghana and Pakistan
- Already 238M people face high levels of acute food insecurity. This does not include updates on ten countries we reported on in May, amounting to 41M people. 39 of these countries have IPC/CH analyses so we can break down the severity of the high levels of acute food insecurity: - IPC/CH Phase 3: crises- food consumption gaps and livelihood erosion- need urgent action to protect lives and livelihoods - IPC/CH Phase 4: emergency- large food consumption gaps and emergency coping strategies- urgent action to save lives and livelihoods - IPC/CH Phase 5: catastrophe- extreme lack of food and destitution- urgent action to revert/ prevent widespread death and collapse of livelihoods Households estimated to be in Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4) either have large food consumption gaps, which are reflected in very high acute malnutrition and death rates that are 2–4 times higher than in normal conditions, or they can mitigate these food gaps only by employing emergency livelihood strategies and asset liquidation, putting at serious risk their future livelihoods.
- Bukinsa Faso: increase because of insecurity Mali: for the first time, also because of insecurity Somalia and South Sudan: numbers went down because of humanitarian assistance and improved conditions, but in Somalia absolute figures went up and South Sudan they stayed the same. Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5) is the most severe phase of acute food insecurity. People face an extreme lack of food and are unable to meet other basic needs even with emergency coping strategies. The phase is marked
- These people minimally adequate food consumption, cannot afford other basic needs without adopting negative coping strategies. They require development assistance: social protection, disaster risk reduction and resilience building. People facing Stressed (IPC/CH Phase 2) have minimally adequate food consumption but must adopt stress coping strategies to support non-food needs. They are acutely food insecure and highly vulnerable to shocks, so increases in populations facing this phase could indicate a decrease in resilience and increased risk of populations falling into more severe phases of acute food insecurity
- There is of course, variability in the number of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity country by country. Nine countries with comparable data saw increases. Here we list the six largest
- 15 countries saw decreases in numbers. Six countries with the largest decreases in the number of people between 2022 and 2023 Niger- pre coup figures What drives this situation
- Drivers: Conflict Insecurity: Sudan: Major displacement crises, high malnutrition High malnutrion with people on the move Ukraine Uncertainty in global food markets- termination of BSGI West Africa Conflict a major driver of Catastrophe Spread of Central Sahel crises to coastal countries Economic shocks Food prices Global food price decreases are not transfering to countries – 34 food crisis countries have double digit food inflation High public debt Limits governments’ capacity to respond Inflation: Sustained high inflation contributing to cost of living crisis Weather extremes Shock itself: drought in horn of Africa, cyclones Freddy, Mocha Recovery from the shock Earthquakes El Nino: Associated with drought, high temperatures, reduced global food production, and economic decline
- Flood in Libya superimposed on conflict/ insecurity Numbers: Myanmar, Ukraine, Syria Continued data gaps
- The Global Report on Food Crisis (GRFC) 2023 can play a crucial role in informing Early Warning Systems (EWS) by providing valuable data, analysis, and insights that help identify, assess, and respond to food security challenges in a timely and effective manner. Data and Analysis: Comprehensive data on numbers of people in need, as well as trend, causes and primary drivers at the global, regional and countries of inclusion level. Documents countries that are not included but are of concern, where information systems need to be reinforced. . Trends and Patterns: The report highlights trends and patterns in food insecurity, such as changes in the number of people in Ph3+ or shifts in the geographical distribution of crises. EWS can use this information to identify where the situation is deteriorating and prioritize monitoring and response efforts accordingly. Root Causes: The GRFC typically delves into the underlying causes of food crises, such as conflict, weather extremes, economic shocks. EWS can incorporate this analysis to understand the drivers of food insecurity and anticipate when and where these drivers may worsen tailoring a risk factors forward looking analysis. Regular Updates: The GRFC is usually updated bi-annually, providing a regular source of up-to-date information. EWS can use this periodic reporting to track changes in food security conditions and adjust their strategies accordingly.
- Six countries with the largest increases between 2022 and 2023
- Six countries with the largest decreases in the number of people between 2022 and 2023
- No 2023 data for Syria, Ukraine and Myanmar, that figured in the top ten last year.
- Highest numbers in East Africa Share highest in MENA Numbers went down in Central and Southern Africa and LAC (minus Haiti). High shares of acute food insecurity in MENA and Asia Central and Sourthern Africa: lower numbers than last year, largely because of better food available/ favourable harvest. DRC still remains one of the largest in terms of numbers and CAR in terms of prevalence. Very high food inflation in Zimbabwe (256%) East Africa: Highest numbers reported again, driven mostly by conflict in Sudan and continued conflict, economic and weather shocks in Ethiopia and increasing numbers in Somalia. IPC/CH Phase 5 numbers in Somalia and South Sudan are decreasing. West Africa and the Sahel: slight increase in numbers: a good agricultural season mitigated the impacts of economic shock (high food prices, high inflation, high debt burden) and conflict. Asia: improvements in Afghanistan and Sri Lanka and better coverage of anlaysis in Pakistan and Bangladesh LAC: slight decline in figures overall, alhtough Haiti figures have increased. MENA: Very high proportions of people facing high levels of acute food insecruity (Yemen, Lebanese residents and Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon)/ Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon have more htan 50% of their populations in IPC Phase 3 plus. Annual food inflation reached 280 percent in Lebanon.
- El Nino- Some countries benefit/others suffer 71% probability of a strong El Nino, already seeing low rainfall in Central America, Haiti, India, Thailand, Ethiopia and expecting a poor agricultural season in South Africa and heavy rain in the Horn. Cyclone Freddy West Africa has benefited from good rains to date Tends to be associated with drought, high temperatures Reduced global production Economic decline