1.
Johan Swinnen
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
Infopoint virtual conference
May 13, 2021
Beyond the Pandemic
Transforming Food Systems after
COVID-19

2.
Tools and resources
Agricultural Production
and Stocks Monitor
Visualizing production and
stocks of key crops at global
and country levels, with
comparisons to levels during
the 2008–2009 food price
crisis.
COVID-19 Food Price
Monitor
Providing daily updates of
food price movements in
wholesale and retail markets
in key countries in South Asia
and Africa south of the
Sahara.
COVID-19 Policy Response
Portal
Capturing policy responses
to the pandemic, including
population restrictions, social
protection, trade, health,
fiscal, and monetary
measures.
Food Trade Policy Tracker
Monitoring restrictions on
food exports and trade and
their impacts on food
imports.
TOOLS

3.
Source: FAO 2020; Fan et al 2021
12,6
8,6
8,9
9,8
825,6
628,9
687,8
841,4
400
500
600
700
800
900
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2030**
Millions
Percentage
Prevalence and number of
undernourished worldwide
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)
Number of people undernourished (million)
The world is not on track to eliminate
hunger and malnutrition

4.
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
GDP growth per capita (annual %)
Low & middle income Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: World Bank 2020
Source: FAO 2020
Economic growth,
conflict, and food security
12,6
8,6
8,9
9,8
825,6
628,9
687,8
841,4
400
500
600
700
800
900
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2030**
Millions
Percentage
Prevalence and number of
undernourished worldwide
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)
Number of people undernourished (million)
Forcibly displaced people worldwide

5.
3 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet
2 billion people with
micronutrient
deficiencies
Child malnutrition
 Stunting, wasting and
overweight at unacceptable
levels
Source: Heady et al 2020 Torero 2020.

6.
Food system pressures planetary boundaries
Climate change reinforces this
4
6
2
8
1
1
14
5
11
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Energy
consumption (%)
GHG emissions
(%)
Share
of
global
total
(%)
Retail and food preparation
Processing and distribution
Fisheries production
Livestock production
Cropping production
Source: EAT-Lancet Report 2019
The global food system
consumes >30% of energy and
produces >20% of GHG emissions

7.
COVID-19 impacts on global poverty and nutrition
Impact on Global NUTRITION
Source: Laborde, Martin and Vos, 2020
148
79
42
20%
23%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
40
80
120
160
World Sub-Saharan
Africa
South Asia
Increase no. of poor (millions)
% increase poverty (RHS)
Impact on Global POVERTY

8.
Prabhat Kumar Verma / Shutterstock.com
Poor people are disproportionately affected
1. Main asset is physical labor
2. Large share of income for food
3. More disruptions in food value chains –
since more labor-intensive
4. More affected by disruptions of public social
and nutrition programs
5. Less access to health services

9.
50
26.7 27.5
Poorest Middle Richest
Poor people suffer more
from INCOME declines
% of households that have much lower incomes
COVID-19 impacts on inequality in food systems
Survey results from Ethiopia
Source: Hirvonen et al. 2020; Tesfaye et al. 2020.
30,8
60,8
71,7
20,8
44,2
69,2
Poorest Middle Richest
Jan-Feb May
Poor people suffer more
from NUTRITION effects
% of households consuming dairy products

10.
COVID-19 impacts : Rural vs Urban
Atul Loke / Panos Pictures
13,3
16,7
12,2
12,6
16,8
10,7
14,0
16,5
15,0
Indonesia Ghana Nigeria
Increase in POVERTY
(% points
– average per month of lockdown)
National Rural Urban
Source: Amewu et al. 2020; Baulch et al. 2020; Diao et al. 2020; Pradesha et al. 2020; Thurlow, 2020.

11.
COVID-19 impacts : Rural vs Urban
Atul Loke / Panos Pictures
13,3
16,7
12,2
12,6
16,8
10,7
14,0
16,5
15,0
Indonesia Ghana Nigeria
Increase in POVERTY
(% points
– average per month of lockdown)
National Rural Urban
Source: Amewu et al. 2020; Baulch et al. 2020; Diao et al. 2020; Pradesha et al. 2020; Thurlow, 2020.
-38%
-18%
-14%
-29%
-92%
Total Agriculture Food services
Changes in GDP (%),
NIGERIA: 5-week lockdown

12.
Gendered impacts of COVID-19
 Health measures affect women and men differently in
developing countries, particularly in rural areas
 Income shocks also have gendered impacts
 Impact on women’s empowerment and children’s
schooling could affect female labor force participation in
the next generation, also violence-related services
Children
 6.7 M (14.3%) more children with wasting (compared to
no COVID-19 projections)
 Child mortality increased by 128,000 deaths
(~10,000 more deaths/month)
Women and children are especially vulnerable
Source: Quisumbing et al. 2020; Hidrobo et al. 2020. Headey et al. 2020

13.
Food supply chains
disruptions
Supply disruptions vs. income and job loss
Survey evidence from Myanmar
Respondent assessments of three largest impacts of COVID-19 on their household
Source: IFPRI and MSU, 2020
Household income
and job loss

14.
i_am_zews / Shutterstock.com
Atul Loke / Panos Pictures
Restructuring supply chains
and food systems
 Heterogeneity:
 global vs local
 labor vs capital intensity
 large vs small (SMEs)
 staples vs perishables
 Many innovations to overcome restrictions
 Organizational
 Technology : digital growth and e-commerce
 …..
Source: Reardon and Swinnen, 2020.

15.
Sumit Saraswat / Shutterstock.com
Beyond the Pandemic
Transforming Food Systems after COVID-19
1. A transformative moment in history
2. Use lessons from crisis to transform food
systems
3. Much creativity and innovation in value
chains and food systems and policy-thinking
to deal with crisis
 finance, digital, social protection, …
4. Use opportunity of global summits in 2021
5. Crucial role to play for public and private
sectors

16.
John McDermott
Director, CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture
for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), IFPRI
Infopoint virtual conference
May 13, 2021
GFPR 2021 Report Overview

17.
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths
COVID-19 Year 1
Deaths and economic disruption
–8,0
–7,0
–6,0
–5,0
–4,0
–3,0
–2,0
–1,0
0,0
World
Advanced
Economies
Emerging and
Developing
Asia
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
Middle East
and Central
Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Low-Income
Developing
Countries
Percentage
change
Real GDP growth, 2020
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, January 2021 Update (Washington, DC: 2021).
Source: Johns Hopkins University, CSSE COVID-19 Database (updated March 18, 2021).

18.
COVID-19 Year 1
Policy responses in 6 LMICs
MAR 2020 APR 2020 MAY 2020 JUN 2020 JUL 2020 AUG 2020 SEP 2020 OCT 2020 NOV 2020 DEC 2020 JAN 2021
LOCKDOWNS
AND HEALTH
MEASURES
 Bangladesh, Honduras, and Rwanda issue lockdowns
 Zambia implements targeted lockdown of Nakonde
 Rwanda imposes targeted lockdown in Kigali  Myanmar announces stay-at-home orders in Yangon
STIMULUS AND
FINANCIAL
ASSISTANCE
 Egypt issues
$6.25 billion
package
 Bangladesh issues $8 billion stimulus
 Rwanda receives IMF loan
 Bangladesh, Egypt, Honduras receive IMF loans
 Myanmar receives IMF loan
SOCIAL
PROTECTION
 Operation Honduras Solidaria provides 30 days of groceries to 800,000 families
 Egypt expands Takaful & Karama monetary subsidies  Myanmar secures $950 million for vaccines
 Zambia provides $40–$80 per month to affected households in major cities  Rwanda submits to COVAX framework
FOOD SECTOR
INTERVENTIONS
 Honduras offers Productive Solidarity Bonus to 190,000 producers
 Zambia suspends weekly markets  Myanmar announces a $60 million plus relief plan for the agriculture sector
 Bangladesh allocates more than $1 billion to subsidize fertilizer
 Egypt postpones farmers’ debt payments, fixes wheat price  Rwanda temporarily closes Kigali Market, other markets operate at 50% with traders working on rotational basis
Source: Johns Hopkins University, CSSE COVID-19 Data (updated Feb. 19, 2021).
Honduras
Zambia
Rwanda
Myanmar
Egypt
Bangladesh
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Daily
new
confirmed
cases
per
million
people
(7-day
rolling
average)

19.
Bangladesh
Ethiopia
Ghana
Indonesia
Kenya
Mali
Myanmar
Malawi
Niger
Nigeria
Pakistan
Rwanda
Sudan
Senegal
Bangladesh
Ethiopia
Ghana
Indonesia
Kenya
Mali
Myanmar
Malawi
Niger
Nigeria
Pakistan
Rwanda
Sudan
Senegal
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
50 60 70 80 90 100
Difference
compared
to
2019
period
Average Stringency Index Value over the period
Lockdown stringency and change in GDP and
agricultural GDP
Agricultural GDP GDP
 Critical trade-offs among
health, food systems, and
economic goals. Multisectoral
perspective and clearly defined
values needed.
 Increase understanding of
the interplay of health,
economic, and social policy
actions.
 Develop processes for policy
coordination and increase
capacity of policymakers to
work across multiple sectors.
Health, food, and economics
Source: Stringency data are from H. Thomas et al., Oxford’s COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik
School of Government (www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/covidtracker, accessed Feb. 8, 2021).

20.
Regional differences
Africa
 Disease impacts later in 2020 and
into 2021
 Rural – urban differences
 Policy responses depending on fiscal
capacity and existing programs
MENA
 Food supply resilience
 Major income disruptions –
remittances, tourism; urban
businesses; greater hardship for the
poor
 Safety nets critical and effectiveness
varied
South Asia
 Great initial concern, lockdowns
 Disease wave (India) later in 2020
and into 2021
 Massive scale-up of existing social
protection
 Transforming food systems showed a
mix of resilience and fragility
E & SE Asia
 Disease impacts early 2020
 Successful lockdowns and disease
control in East Asia with rapid food
and economic recovery
 More varied impacts in smaller SE
Asian countries
LAC
 Massive health and economic impact
of the pandemic in many countries
(evolving)
 Ongoing modernization of food
systems effective but vulnerabilities in
transitioning systems
Central Asia
 Disruptions exacerbated ongoing
food system transformation
challenges – diversification, jobs,
value addition, infrastructure, and
digital capacity

21.
Food system transformation
Source: Based on S. Fan et al., “Food Systems for Human and Planetary Health: Economic Perspectives and Challenges,” Food System Economics (forthcoming).

22.
Agarianna76 / Shutterstock.com
Healthy diets for all: 3 billion could not afford
recommended diets pre-pandemic; number has
increased by approximately 10% since.
Recommendations
 Focus on diets to address all forms of malnutrition
 Support LMICs: food-based dietary guidelines and
diet standards
 Supplement with social protection for those left
behind
 Demand-side will drive healthy diets: focus on
consumers and food environments
Nutrition

23.
jeep2499 / Shutterstock.com
 Awareness increasing but evidence and action lag
behind
 Interplay of environment and food systems in disease
emergence (One Health)
 Climate and other environmental shocks will increase
in frequency and consequences
Responses
 Build evidence and capacity to integrate environmental
sustainability into nature-positive food systems
 Multi-pronged approaches: governance, institutions,
policy, and technologies bundled together at
appropriate scales
Natural resources and
environment

24.
Tom Pilston / Panos Pictures
 COVID-19 exacerbated inequalities with
vulnerable groups most affected
 Reversed progress on many SDGs (poverty,
health, gender, nutrition, education)
 Complex rural-urban dynamic in COVID-19
impacts
 Major investments made in social protection
 Reflect urgent needs
 Most effective if adapting and scaling of existing
programs
Inclusion

25.
Majority World CIC / Alamy Stock Photo
 Disruption of food supply and impacts differed
by food and food system
 Transitioning food systems had the most
challenges
 Some dramatic acceleration of food supply
innovations: re-organization of supply,
logistics, and digital technology
 Enabling business environment
 Enabling regulations, “infrastructure”
 Recognize transitional challenges: capacity of
SMEs, formalizing markets, evolving standards
Efficiency and food supply
chains

26.
Adam Dean / Panos Pictures
 Resilience needs to be integrated into food
systems approaches as one of 5 outcomes to
be considered
Resilience planning needs to consider multiple
and more frequent shocks: disease, climate,
financial, conflict, …
1. Mitigating frequency and severity of shocks
2. Information systems to help anticipate
shocks and plan responses
3. Build capacity to absorb shocks
Resilience

27.
 Pandemic is far from over
 Evolving situation
 Inequalities exposed; more concerted support to vulnerable groups critical
 Beyond the pandemic – climate and other shocks
 Public enabling and regulation of private food system actors in transitioning
systems
 Learn lessons and address multiple food system transformation goals
 Resilient policy systems: effectiveness and sustainability of policy
responses
 Cross-sectoral coordination
What is next?

28.
Neha Kumar
Senior Research Fellow
Poverty, Health and Nutrition Division
International Food Policy Research Institute
Infopoint virtual conference
May 13, 2021
Towards inclusive food systems
Pandemics, vulnerable groups, and the
role of social protection

29.
Tommy Trenchard / Panos Pictures
 living in suboptimal conditions
 dependent on unreliable livelihoods
 limited (no) access to healthcare and safety
net
Poor households in rural and urban areas,
informal workers, migrant workers, women,
refugees and internally displaced persons
 Coping strategies will have long-term
implications
The COVID-19 pandemic
disproportionately affected the
most vulnerable…

30.
Giacomo Pirozzi / Panos Pictures
 Rural and urban dwellers had different
experiences
- Rural households better insulated in short term
- Food supply chain disruptions affected urban dwellers more
- Coverage of safety nets limited in urban areas
 Informal sector workers
- Unregulated sector and worst hit by lockdowns
- Low coverage of safety nets or unemployment/health insurance
 Women and children
- Women lose autonomy and their assets sold first
- “Stay at home” – potential exposure to violence for women &
children
- Children affected in multiple ways
Impacts were widespread and
uneven and with limited
coverage of safety nets

31.
Anton Jankovoy / Shutterstock.com
 1,414 social protection measures taken by 215
countries and territories
- Reached over 1.1 billion people or 14% of world’s population
- Compared to pre-pandemic levels benefit amounts doubled
and coverage increased by 240%!!!
 Yet, it was limited in many ways…
- Transfers were one-off or short duration
- Transfer amount was not sufficient
- Coverage remained low
- Not gender-sensitive
 But there are important lessons for improving
social protection programs going forward…
Social protection response to the
pandemic was unprecedented…

32.
Edward Echwalu / ESP
 the importance of basic needs
 the importance of political will
 the need for a multifaceted approach to
dealing with it
It is imperative to distill lessons learned
during the pandemic for long term
transformation of food systems and social
programs to alleviate inequalities that exist
The pandemic highlighted…

33.
Danielle Resnick
Senior Research Fellow,
Development Strategy and Governance Division
IFPRI
Infopoint virtual conference
May 13, 2021
Resilient Policy Systems

34.
Four Pillars of Policy System Resilience
Adaptability Ability to modify extant
policies quickly
• Enabling business
environment
• Technology governance
• Credible partners
• Nimble bureaucracy
Source: Devex
Ghana used drones for C19
testing and PPE deliveries

35.
Four Pillars of Policy System Resilience
Coordination Horizontal, vertical, and
temporal dimensions
• Executive leadership
• Subnational autonomy
• Political polarization
Varying mask
mandates, Brazilian
states, April 2020
Source: Agência Brasil

36.
Four Pillars of Policy System Resilience
Implementation
Capacity
Administration
• Human & financial resources
• Oversight & accountability
• Autonomous public
institutions
Enforcement
• Monopoly of force, protect
borders, maintain order
C19 food aid warehouses
looted in Nigeria due to
poor distribution
Source: AFP

37.
Four Pillars of Policy System Resilience
Citizen Trust Reflects state-society
relations
• Past experiences
• Identities
• Partisan affiliations
Source: Afrobarometer, Oct.2020-Jan.2021
83
78
62 61
56
79
66
49 49
58
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Senegal Liberia Togo Benin Niger
Don't trust government to ensure vaccine is safe (%)
Not likely to try to get vaccinated (%)