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Integrate fault tree analysis and fuzzy sets in quantitative risk assessment
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International Journal of
Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 – 6480(Print), ISSN 0976 – 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 12-20 © IAEME 12 INTEGRATE FAULT TREE ANALYSIS AND FUZZY SETS IN QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT Rachid Ouache1 , Ali A.J Adham2 , Noor AzlinnaBinti Azizan3 1, 2, 3 Faculty of Technology, University Malaysia Pahang, 26300, Malaysia ABSTRACT Quantitative risk assessment is the most important step to judge the results of risk estimation in the process of decision making to improve level of safety. Quantitative risk assessment hasfaced big problemwith complexity of engineering systemsin term of reliability. In this study, reliability of risk Assessment proposed to solve problem of uncertainty based on fuzzysets and fault tree analysis to precise values of top event. The results demonstrated that the model proposed is the best to solve problem of uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment. Keywords: Quantitative risk assessment, Fault tree analysis, Fuzzyset, Reliability. 1. INTRODUCTION In recent decades the world has witnessed an increase in the number of major accidents and disasters, where considerable efforts are made to control the safety of industrial systems. Risk assessment approach are designed primarily to reduce the existing risk inherent in engineering system to a level considered tolerable and maintain it over time.The method of fault tree analysis used to study the reliability and dependability of complex systems (Ding et al, 2010;Gupta et al, 2007).A study of system reliability, the probabilities are often considered accurate and fully determinable. It is also assumed that all the information on the performance of the reliability of the system and its components is provided (Wang et al, 2009). The Improve of reliability for prolonging the life of the item based on two steps essential, on the one hand, study reliability issues and on the other hand, estimate and reduce the failure rate. Two approaches for risk analysis, which can be qualitatively and quantitatively. The qualitative approach used when there is a source of danger, and when there are no safeguards against exposure of the hazard, and then there is a possibility of loss or injury. In complex engineering systems, there are often safeguarded against exposure of hazards for maximizing the level of safeguards, and minimize the level of risk. The quantitative risk assessment is the approach concerned with this study. Since quantitative risk analysis involves estimation of the INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ADVANCED RESEARCH IN ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (IJARET) ISSN 0976 - 6480 (Print) ISSN 0976 - 6499 (Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 12-20 © IAEME: www.iaeme.com/ IJARET.asp Journal Impact Factor (2014): 7.8273 (Calculated by GISI) www.jifactor.com IJARET © I A E M E
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International Journal of
Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 – 6480(Print), ISSN 0976 – 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 12-20 © IAEME 13 degree or probability of loss, risk analysis is fundamentally intertwined with the concept of probability of occurrence of hazards.This studyproposes FTAuses fuzzy setstoprecisethe values of top events which help us to precisethe value of risk. 2. FUZZY FAULT TREE ANALYSIS FFTA Probabilistic safety assessment by FTA was considered as an important tool to evaluate the systems engineering. Boolean algebras are used to mathematically represent the tree diagramand calculate the output of every logic gate (Haimes et al, 2004; Epstein &Rauzy 2005; Ericson 2005;Huang, Tonga &Zuo 2004, N. Limnios, 2007). The occurrence probability of the undesired top event is afunction of the reliability data of primary events, which are also known as basic events(IAEA 2007; Yang 2007).Fault tree analysis can give two types of results, i.e. qualitative andquantitative results. 2.1 FAULT TREE ANALYSIS The FTA is composed of a number of symbols to describe events,Boolean gates, and page transfers. Transfer event symbols are pointers toindicate sub-tree branches that are used elsewhere in the tree (Ericson 2005; Vesely et al. 1981). 2.1.1 BOOLEAN ALGEBRA Boolean algebra is the algebra of fault events used in a fault tree tomathematically represent the relationship between input and output faultevent of a Boolean gate in the tree. This relationship describes a situation where anoutput of the gate either fails or not (Haimes 2004;Vesely et al. 1981). Table.1: Booleanalgebras Rules Engineering symbolism Mathematical Symbolism Idempotent law X.X=X X+X=X Xځ X= X Xڂ X= X Distributive law X. (Y+Z)= X.Y+X.Z XځሺY ڂ Zሻ= (XځY)(ڂXځZ) Commutative law X.Y=Y.X XځY=YځX Absorption law X.(X+Y)=X X+(X.Y)=X X(ځXڂY)=X X(ڂXځY)=X 2.1.2 FAILURE PROBABILITY CALCULATION The failure probability of an output event for two or more independent inputevents combined by a Boolean OR gate calculated using Eq.(1). And by a Boolean AND gate calculated using Eq. (2). ܲሺܣሻ ൌ 1 െ ෑ ሼ1 െ ܲሺܣሻሽ ୀଵ ሺ1ሻ ܲሺܣሻ ൌ ෑ ܲሺܣሻ ୀଵ ሺ2ሻ Whereܲሺܣሻ is the failure probability of the input eventܣ, and n is the number of inputevents to the Boolean gate.
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International Journal of
Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 – 6480(Print), ISSN 0976 – 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 12-20 © IAEME 14 2.2 FUZZY SET THEORY 2.2.1 Fuzzy Sets The utility of fuzzy sets lies in their ability to model uncertain or ambiguous data, Fuzzy Sets FS is important to observe that there is an intimate connection between Fuzziness and Complexity. Fuzzy sets provide a means to model the uncertainty associated with vagueness, imprecision, and lack of information regarding a problem or a plant, etc (Dubois, 1980, Zadeh, 1978). The soft computingis useful tool for solving problems in many fields.It is a high-performance language for technical computing (Dubois, 1998). Typical usage includes: Development of algorithms, Data analysis, exploration and visualization, Mathematics and computing, Scientific and technical graphics, Modeling, simulation and prototyping (Cavallo et al, 1996; Canos,2008;Bouchon et al, 1995). Fuzzy set theory deal with mathematically model information uncertainties and the theory has been developed and applied in a number of real world applications (FuzzyTECK,1995; Chen, 2001; Gebhardt, 1995; Zadeh,1965) µ : X ՜ ሾ0,1ሿ, x ՜ µ ሺxሻ א ሾ0,1ሿ ሺ3ሻ The value of the membership function µA(X) represents the membership grade of x in X. The closer value to 1 is, the stronger degree of membership of x in A is. (Bector& Chandra 2005; Lu et al.2007). µA∪B(x)= max(µA(x), µB(x)) = µA(x) ∪µB(x) (4) µA∩B(x)= min(µA(x), µB(x)) = µA(x) ∩ µB(x) (5) µ Ac(x)=1- µA(x) (6) 2.2.2 FUZZY NUMBERS A fuzzy number is one type of fuzzy sets with normalized membership function. A fuzzy number ܣሚ is subset of real line R who membership function µ෨(x) Can be a continuous mapping from R into a closed interval [0,1]. The membership functionµ෨(x) has the following characteristics (Dubois& Prade 1978;Wang et al. 2006). The membership function of the number ܣሚ can be expressed as follows. µ෨(x) = µ෩ ሺݔሻ, ܽ ݔ ܾ 1, ܾ ݔ ܿ µ෩ ோ ሺݔሻ, ܿ ݔ ݀ (7) In a special case when b=c, the trapezoidal fuzzy number into a trianglar fuzzy number (Abbasbandy & Hajjari 2009; Wang et al.2006). ߤ෩ ሺݔሻ= ೣషೌ ್షೌ (8) ߤ෩ ோ ሺݔሻ ൌ షೣ ష (9) 0,otherwise
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International Journal of
Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 – 6480(Print), ISSN 0976 – 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 12-20 © IAEME 15 Figure.1: Trapezoidal and triangular fuzzy numbers 2.2.3 Fuzzy inference system FIS The output level z of each rule is weighted by firing strength w of the rule (Guh et al, 2008; Castillo, 1999a).The final output of the system is weighted average of all the rule output which is given as:Final output= ∑ ௪ ௭ ಿ సభ ∑ ௪ ಿ సభ (10) The Sugeno proposed a fuzzy inference method that guarantees the continuity of the output.Tomohiro Takagi and Michio Sugeno introduced a mathematical tool to build a fuzzy model of a system where fuzzy implication and reasoning are used in their paper in the year of 1985 (Sugeno, 1985).A FISwith five functional blocks described in Figure.2. Figure.2: Fuzzy inference system 3. CASE STUDY The storage tank is designed to hold a flammable liquid under slight nitrogen positive pressure under controls pressure (PICA-I)(CCPS,2000).The incident isthe top event that will be developed in the fault tree, Construction of the fault tree FTbased on the knowledge of the system andinitiating events in the hazard operability HAZOP study, the fault tree is constructed manually. Equipment and valves Instruments FV = Flow control Valve T = Tank P = pump PV =Pressure control Valve RV = Relief Valve 1῎ = 1 inch size P = Pressure T = Temperature L = Level, F = Flow I = Indicator C = Controller A = Alarm, H = High, L = Low µ෨(x) db 0 ߤ෩ ሺݔሻ ߤ෩ ோ ሺݔሻ 1 x ca 1 µ෨(x) db =c 0 ߤ෩ ሺݔሻ ߤ෩ ோ ሺݔሻ 1 x a 1 Database Rule base Knowledge base Fuzzification Defuzzification interface Decision-making unit FuzzyFuzzy Crisp OUTPUTINPUT Crisp
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International Journal of
Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 – 6480(Print), ISSN 0976 – 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 12-20 © IAEME 16 Figure.3: Flammable liquid storage tank Figure. 4 shows fault tree constructed manually. Every event is labeled sequentially with a T for the top event, M for intermediate event, andB for a basic or undeveloped event. The procedure starts at the top event, Tank rupture due to overpressure, and determines the possible events that could lead to this incident (CCPS, 2000). Figure.4: Fault tree analysis for tank rupture due to overpressure using boolean algebra Tables.2 Shows calculate frequency using Boolean algebras and fuzzy inference methods, the results by fuzzy sets are more precise than classical method , and in tables we can see two kinds of results. The first illustrate using same imputs in classical with results more precise, the second is the 1 ῎ PV-2 1 ῎ PICA-1 H PV-1 V-7 To atmosphere Nitrogene To flare RV-1 V-8 1 ῎ From tank trucks V-1 FlammableLiquid Storage Tank T=1 4 ῎ LIA-1 TIA-1 V-3 1῎ P=1 PI-1 V-4 FICA -1 H H L FV-1 To process L Or And Exceed capacity of RV-1 B2=1.10 -3 /yr V-8 closed B3=1.10 -3 /yr Tank rupture due to overpressure T=2.10-5 /yr Tank overpressured M1=1.10-2 /yr Pressure relief system failure M2=2.10-3 /yr Excess pressure in tank M3=4.10 -5 /yr Failure of PICA-I/ closingPV-1, B1=1.10 - 2 Hight pressure in tank M4=4.10-3 /yr Failure of, or ignoring PICA-1, B4=1.10-2 /yr Temperature of inlet hotter than normal, B8=1.10-3 /yr V-7 Closed B7=1.10-3 /yr High pressure in Flare Headen, B6=1.10-3 /yr PV-1 Fails closed B5=1.10 -3 /yr And Or Or 1 2 3 4
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International Journal of
Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 – 6480(Print), ISSN 0976 – 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 12-20 © IAEME 17 results by change the value of Input which influence directy in output. The results show the methodto calculate top event as follow: Table.2: Tank rupture due to overpressure using Boolean algebras and fuzzy inference methods Calculate frequency using Boolean algebras method If Tank overpressured =1.51*10-2 /yr And Pressure relief system failure = 2.5*10-3 Then Tank rupture due to overpressure=2*10-5 /yr α-Level intervals of frequency usingfuzzy inference method 1 If 0.0151 And 0.0025 Then 2.53*10-5 2 [0.0101 0.0133] 0.0025 2.52*10-5 3 [0.0134 0.0201] 0.0025 2.53*10-5 4 0.0151 [0.002 0.003] 2.53*10-5 5 0.0101 [0.002 0.003] 2.52*10-5 Fault tree analysis after calculating the frequency using fuzzy inference method, the results show that fuzzy sets is very appropriate for precise the value of initiating events for risk assessment. Figure.5.a Rules inferencess process of Tank rupture due to overpressure Figure.5.bThree dimensional diagram, Tank rupture due to overpressure , Pressure relief system failure and Tank overpressured Figure.5.c Two dimensional diagram, Tank rupture due to overpressure with Tank overpressured Figure.5.dTwo dimensional diagram, Tank rupture due to overpressure with Pressure relief system failure
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International Journal of
Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 – 6480(Print), ISSN 0976 – 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 12-20 © IAEME 18 Figure.6: Fault tree analysis for tank rupture due to overpressure using fuzzy inference 4. DISCUSSION From our results above we can say that: The results of fault tree analysis using fuzzy sets is more powerfull than classical methods, which help us to precise the value of top event and to deal with uncertainty. The Surface Viewer shows a three-dimensional curve that represents the mapping from inputs and outputs, the diagram drawn using three equations essential (7)-(9).From the simulation results, it may be observed that the fuzzy model can be successfully employed to instantaneously determine the exactitude of fault event with only two input specifications. The two-dimensional diagrams show the relationship between one input and one output, whereas the three dimensional diagrams show the relationship between two inputs and one output and the tables show also the change of outputs by changing the inputs.The two dimension diagram for OR gate happened one steps as line continue, this show the extent of one input directly on output, however the AND gate, the two dimensional diagramshow three steps which means that one input not influence directly on output.The same analysis for three dimensional diagram for both OR and AND gates.Results calculated of the rule output using equation (10). 5. CONCLUSION In this paper, we have proposed a fuzzy fault tree analysis FFTA for reliability quantitative risk assessmentas new model to solve problem of imprecise and uncertainty of results.The application of this model gavebest results for the decision making.FFTA asnewmodelfor reliability quantitative risk assessment based onFuzzy inference system FIS which considered as the best tool to precise the value of top events of fault tree analysis.The fault tree analysis is constructed using two different calculation approaches, boolean algebrasclassic and fuzzy inference using sugeno method, Or And Exceed capacity of RV-1 B2=1.10 -3 V-8 closed B3=1.10 -3 Tank rupture due to overpressure T=2.53*10-5 /yr Tank overpressured M1=1.51*10-2 /yr -5 Pressure relief system failure M2=2.5410 -3 Excess pressure in tank M3=4.54*10 -5 /yr Failure of PICA-I/ closingPV-1, B1=1.10 - 2 /yr Hight pressure in tank M4=4.10 -3 /yr Failure of, or ignoring PICA-1, B4=1.10 -2 /yr Temperature of inlet hotter than normal, B8=1.10-3 /yr V-7 Closed B7=1.10 -3 /yr High pressure in Flare Headen, B6=1.10 -3 /yr PV-1 Fails closed B5=1.10-3 /yr And Or Or 1 2 3 4
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International Journal of
Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 – 6480(Print), ISSN 0976 – 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 12-20 © IAEME 19 whereas the fuzzy inference system gave results more precise than boolean algebras method, which consider as comlementry to solve problems of uncertainty.Fault tree analysis with fuzzy sets is good solution for reliability quantitative risk assessment. REFERENCES [1] Abbasbandy, S. &Hajjari, T. 2009, 'A new approach for ranking of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers',Comput. Math. Appl., vol. 57, no. 3, pp. 413-419. [2] Bector, C.R. & Chandra, S. 2005, 'Fuzzy numbers and fuzzy arithmetic', in J. Kacprzyk (ed.),Fuzzy Mathematical Programming and Fuzzy Matrix Games, Springer, Berlin, pp. 39-56. [3] Bouchon-Meunier B, Yager R, Zadeh L (1995) Fuzzy logic and soft computing.World Scientific, Singapore. [4] Canos, L. &Liern, V. 2008, 'Soft computing-based aggregation methods for human resource management', Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 189, no. 3, pp. 669-681. [5] Castillo O, Melin P (1994) Developing a new method for the identification of microorganisms for the food industry using the fractal dimension. J Fract 2(3):457–460. [6] Castillo O, Melin P (1999a) A new fuzzy inference system for reasoning with multiple differential equations for modelling complex dynamical systems. In: Proceedings of CIMCA’99, IOS Press, Vienna, Austria, pp. 224–229. [7] CCPS, 2000, Guidelines for Chemicals Process Quantitative Risk Analysis, 2nd edition, American institute of chemical engineers (AICHE). [8] Chen G, Pham TT (2001) Introduction to fuzzy sets, fuzzy logic, and fuzzy control systems. CRC, Boca Raton, FL. [9] Ding, Y., Zuo, M.J., Lisnianski, A. & Li, W. 2010, 'A framework for reliability approximation of multi-state weighted k-out-of-n systems', IEEE Trans. Reliab., vol. 59, no. 2, pp. 297- 308. [10] Dubois D, Prade H (1980) Fuzzy sets and systems: theory and applications.Academic, New York. [11] Dubois D,Prade H (1998) Soft computing, fuzzy logic, and artificial intelligence, soft computing a fusion of foundations, methodologies and applications, vol 2(1). Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, pp. 7–11. [12] Dubois, D. &Prade, H. 1978, 'Operations on fuzzy numbers', Int. J. Syst. Sci., vol. 9, pp. 613- 626. [13] Epstein, S. &Rauzy, A. 2005, 'Can we trust PRA?',Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., vol. 88, no. 3, pp. 195-205. [14] Ericson, C.A. 2005, 'Fault tree analysis', in Ericson (ed.), Hazard Analysis Techniques for System Safety, John Wiley & Sons, Virginia, pp. 183-221. [15] Gebhardt J (1995) New industrial applications of the fuzzy-PLC proceedings of the 3. In: European congress on fuzzy and intelligent technologies (EUFIT 95), Aachen, 08/95. [16] Guh, Y.Y., Po, R.W. & Lee, E.S. 2008, 'The fuzzy weighted average within a generalized means function', Comput. Math. Appl., vol. 55, no. 12, pp. 2699-2706. [17] Gupta, S. & Bhattacharya, J. 2007, 'Reliability analysis of a conveyor system using hybrid data', Qual. Reliab. Eng. Int., vol. 23, no. 7, pp. 867-882. [18] Haimes, Y.Y. 2004, 'Fault trees', in Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, 2nd edn, John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey, pp. 525-569. [19] Huang, D., Chen, T. & Wang, M.J.J. 2001b, 'A fuzzy set approach for event tree analysis', Fuzzy Sets Syst., vol. 118, no. 1, pp. 153-165.
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