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ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 11, (Part - 4) November 2015, pp.33-38
www.ijera.com 33|P a g e
Comparison of Cost Estimation Methods using Hybrid Artificial
Intelligence on Schematic Design Stage: RANFIS and CBR-GA
WisnuIsvara*, Yusuf Latief*, Andreas Wibowo**, MurthadaAskari*
*(Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Indonesia, Indonesia)
**(Agencyfor Research and Development, Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing, Indonesia)
ABSTRACT
Cost estimating at schematic design stage as the basis of project evaluation, engineering design, and cost
management, plays an important role in project decision under a limited definition of scope and constraints in
available information and time, and the presence of uncertainties. The purpose of this study is to compare the
performance of cost estimation models of two different hybrid artificial intelligence approaches: regression
analysis-adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (RANFIS) and case based reasoning-genetic algorithm (CBR-
GA) techniques. The models were developed based on the same 50 low-cost apartment project datasets in
Indonesia. Tested on another five testing data, the models were proven to perform very well in term of accuracy.
A CBR-GA model was found to be the best performer but suffered from disadvantage of needing 15 cost drivers
if compared to only 4 cost drivers required by RANFIS for on-par performance.
Keywords-Case basedreasoning, costestimation, geneticalgorithm, neuro fuzzy, regressionanalysis
I. INTRODUCTION
The accuracy of estimation of construction costs
from the beginning to the end of projectis a critical
factor to the success of the project. At the first phase
of design, the schematic design will be prepared and
a preliminary estimate can be made when the
schematic design develops. The objectives of the
preliminary estimate are to design the project within
the owner’s budget and to evaluate alternative
design concepts [1]. However, due to lack of
detailed design information during the planning
phase, accurate cost estimation is hard to obtain even
for professional cost estimators [2].
It has been widely acknowledged that
inaccuracies are the main problem in early cost
estimates. This is because estimation exercises are
often based upon limited data and information
available at the time of preparing estimates.
According to Holm et al [3], the expected accuracy
range of cost estimating at schematic design stage is
+10–20%. Oberlander and Trost [4] explained that
what was known about the project (scope) and how
was the estimate preparedhave relative influence of
38.6% and 23.5% to the accuracy of early cost
estimates, respectively.
A large number of cost estimation models have
been developed by previous research. Cost
estimation models were traditionally based on
statistical methods, including the widely used
regression analysis (RA). This analysis method is a
very powerful statistical tool that can be used as both
an analytical and predictive technique in examining
the contribution of potential new items to the overall
estimate reliability [5]. A major disadvantage of
regression-based techniques is that the mathematical
form has to be defined before any analysis can be
performed [6]. However, the rapid development of
information and computational technologies now
allows the use of more sophisticated techniques,
such as neural networks (NN), fuzzy logic (FL), case
based reasoning (CBR), genetic algorithms (GA)to
overcome this constraint andmany research studies
have been done in this area. For examples, NN
affords a capacity to learn from past data and
generalize solutions for future applications; FL
allows for tolerance of real world imprecision and
uncertainties; CBR solves the new problem by
adapting previously determined solutions of the
similar previous cases and storing the new
successful solution for future use; and GA facilities
global optimization of parameters.
At present, more recent research efforts have
been directed toward artificial-intelligence (AI)
hybrid models that combine AI techniques from one
another to obtain better algorithms and, thus, better
accuracies. These AI methods include as neurofuzzy
system (NFS), fuzzy neural network (FNN),
evolutionary fuzzy hybrid neural network (EFHNN),
adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS),
case based reasoning-genetic algorithm (CBR-GA),
neural network-genetic algorithm (NN-GA) that gain
growing popularity for cost estimation models.
Latief et al [7] developed a preliminary cost
estimation model incorporating RA and ANFIS,
named as RANFIS model. They found that their
RANFIS model performed much better than RA and
NN models. RANFIS as a hybrid model that
integrated three powerful techniques (RA, NN, and
RESEARCH ARTICLE OPEN ACCESS
WisnuIsvara et al.Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com
ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 11, (Part - 4) November 2015, pp.33-38
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FL) has demonstrated better accuracy performance
than other models that only used RA or NN alone.
The next question is how about the performance of
RANFIS model when compared with another hybrid
model that combines several different techniques.
This paper further tests the performance of RANFIS
against another type of hybrid AI method, a CBR-
GA technique.
II. METHODOLOGY
2.1 RANFIS Model [7]
The RANFIS model is an early-costestimation
model incorporating RA and ANFIS, as described in
Fig. 1. This model employs RA on collected
historical data to determine significant building
parameters as key cost drivers. The stepwise
regression method wasused to address
multicollinearity issues among input variables that
are common in statistical data analysis [8]. Given
that inclusion of insignificant parameters into a
model could lead to a poor prediction outcome,
elimination of insignificant parameters may improve
the prediction performance of the model [9]. The
output of this stage will be the input for the ANFIS
model.
Figure 1. RANFIS Model : Regression Analysis and
ANFIS Incorporated
ANFIS was developed by Jang [10] and is one
of the best tradeoffs between neural and fuzzy
systems. Fuzzy systems are effective in representing
explicit, but ambiguous common sense knowledge
while NNs provide excellent facilities for
approximating data, learning knowledge from data,
and parallel processing. ANFIS model has five
levels of layered architecture. The nodes in the first
and fourth layers are adaptive nodes and the nodes in
the second, third and fifth layers are fixed nodes.
It is assumed that the fuzzy inference system
has two inputs (significant parameters) X1 and X2
and one output Y and that the rule base contains two
fuzzy if-then rules:
Rule 1: If X1 is A1 and X2 is B1, then f1 = p1x1 +
q1x2 + r1
Rule 2: If X1 is A2 and X2 is B2, then f2 = p2x1 +
q2x2 + r2
In the first layer, input values are converted to
their respective membership values by
corresponding membership functions as in equations
(1) and (2). The membership function can be any
appropriate parameterized membership function
such as generalized bell function like in equation (3),
where ai, bi, ci are the parameter sets and referred to
as premise parameters.
𝑂1,𝑖 = πœ‡ 𝐴 𝑖
π‘₯1 π‘“π‘œπ‘Ÿ 𝑖 = 1,2 π‘œπ‘Ÿ (1)
𝑂1,𝑖 = πœ‡ 𝐡 π‘–βˆ’2
π‘₯2 π‘“π‘œπ‘Ÿ 𝑖 = 3,4 (2)
ΞΌA x =
1
1 +
xiβˆ’ci
ai
2bi
(3)
In the second layer, every node in this layer is a
fixed node and represents the fire strength of the
rule. The output is then the product of all incoming
signals.
𝑂2,𝑖 = 𝑀𝑖 = πœ‡ 𝐴 𝑖
π‘₯1 . πœ‡ 𝐡 𝑖
π‘₯2 , 𝑖 = 1,2 (4)
The third layer normalizes the rule strengths. The i-
th node calculates the ratio of the i-th rule’s firing
strength to the sum of all rule’s firing strengths:
𝑂3,𝑖 = 𝑀𝑖 =
𝑀𝑖
𝑀1 + 𝑀2
, 𝑖 = 1,2 (5)
In the fourth layer, the consequent parameters of the
rule are determined. Every node i in this layer is an
adaptive node with a node function:
𝑂4,𝑖 = 𝑀𝑖 𝑓𝑖 = 𝑀𝑖(𝑝𝑖 π‘₯1 + π‘žπ‘– π‘₯2 + π‘Ÿπ‘–) (6)
Where𝑀𝑖is the output of the layer 3 and 𝑝𝑖, π‘žπ‘–, π‘Ÿπ‘– are
the parameter sets of this node (consequent
parameters). The output of the fifth layer computes
the overall input as the summation of all incoming
signals, and linear in consequent parameters p, q, r.
𝑂5,𝑖 =
𝑀𝑖 𝑓𝑖𝑖
𝑀𝑖𝑖
= 𝑀1 𝑝1 π‘₯1 + π‘ž1 π‘₯2 + π‘Ÿ1
+ 𝑀2(𝑝2 π‘₯1 + π‘ž2 π‘₯2 + π‘Ÿ2)
(7)
ANFIS is trained by a hybrid learning algorithm
since it combines the gradient descent method and
the least squares method. It employs gradient
descent to fine-tune the premise parameters that
define membership functions and uses the least
square method to identify consequent parameters
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ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 11, (Part - 4) November 2015, pp.33-38
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that define the coefficients of each output equations.
ANFIS modeling process starts by obtaining a data
set (input-output data pairs) and dividing it into
training and testing datasets. The training dataset is
used to find the initial premise parameters for the
membership functions by equally spacing each of
the membership functions. A threshold value for
errors between the actual and desired output is
determined. The consequent parameters areobtained
using the least square method, so error for each data
pair can befound. If anerror is larger than the
threshold, the premise parameters will be updated
using the gradient descent method. This process is
then iterated to minimize errors and will be
terminated when the final error is less than the
threshold.
2.2CBR-GA Model
The CBR-GA model is a hybrid approach that
combines CBR with GA. The CBR is the process of
retrieving previous cases similar to a new problem,
solving the new problem by adapting previously
determined solutions of the similar previous cases,
and storing the new successful solution for future
use [11]. A CBR requires four steps: retrieve, reuse,
revise and retain [12], as shown in Fig. 2. Cases are
represented by attributes describing the circumstance
of the problem and its solution. Similar previous
cases best matching the new problem are retrieved.
The solutions of the retrieved cases are then adapted
to fit the new problem. Finally, new solutions are
retained for future use once it has been approved.
The GA is a method of intelligently searching
for an optional solution based on the genetics and
natural selections [13]. GA is an iterative procedure
that maintains a population of candidate solutions to
optimize the similarity function. The role of GA in
the CBR process is used to optimize the outcome in
the retrieval process. In this process GA isused to
find the value of the variable weight.
Figure 2. Case Based Reasoning Cycle
To make the similarity function, it is assumed that
cost of a project for a particular case can be
formulated with appropriate weighting variables:
Ck = w1.X1k + w2.X2k + w3.X3k+ .....+ wi.Xik (8)
WhereCkis cost of project k, wiis variable weight
iandXikis the value of variable i in case of project k.
However, the concept of equation 8 is technically
difficult to apply because the values of wi should be
the inverse of the values of input variables Xik. While
the space of input variable is not necessarily an nο‚΄n
symmetric matrix, the order is not possible for
inversion. To address this problem, it needs
optimizations using a GA to obtain the weight of
each variable (wi). The first step is to find the
distribution of the distance between case-based
variables with a test-case variable using the formula:
𝐷𝑖𝑑 = π‘₯𝑖1 βˆ’ π‘₯𝑑1
2 + π‘₯𝑖2 βˆ’ π‘₯𝑑2
2+. . π‘₯π‘–π‘˜ βˆ’ π‘₯π‘‘π‘˜
2
(9)
WhereDitis the distribution of the distance of base
case to test case variable, xik is the value of variable i
in case k, and Xtk is the value of variable i in the test
case. The variable weights wi, can be obtained using
the equation:
𝑀𝑖 =
1
𝐽 βˆ’ 1
1 βˆ’
𝐷𝑖𝑑
π·π‘–π‘‘π‘‘π‘œπ‘‘π‘Žπ‘™
(10)
Wherewiis variable weight i, J is number of variables
and Dittotal is total Dit. It is essential to find the value
of the similarity between the value of variable i in
case k with the value of variable i in test case.
The value of attribute similarities can then be
obtained using the following equation:
𝑉𝑆𝑖 =
𝑀𝑖𝑛 (π‘‹π‘–π‘˜, 𝑋𝑖𝑑)
π‘€π‘Žπ‘₯ (π‘‹π‘–π‘˜, 𝑋𝑖𝑑)
𝑀𝑖
(11)
where VSi is value of similarity for variable i, Min
(xik,xit) is minimum between variable i in case k (i.e.
base case) and variable iin test case, Max (xik,xit) is
maximum between variable i in case k and variable
iin test case.
Case similarity values can be obtained by summing
up VS values of each variable and those with the
highest total similarity will be the selected case to be
reused. The contract value of the reuse process
cannot be simply used here. It should be revised
based on the difference value of variables that exist
in the reuse case and test case, using the equation:
WisnuIsvara et al.Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com
ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 11, (Part - 4) November 2015, pp.33-38
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RCi = (Xit-xiu) x UCi (12)
WhereRCi is Revision Cost for variable i, Xit is the
value of variable i in test case, xiu is the value of
variable i in reuse case and UCi is unstandardized
coefficient of variable i from RA.
III. MODEL APPLICATION
3.1 Data and Variables [7]
The historical data of 55 low-cost apartment
projects in 19 provinces built by Indonesia’s ex-
Ministry of Public Housing from 2008 to 2011 were
taken as case studies. A total of 22 inputs were
initially identified as cost-driver candidates and the
output variable was contractual construction costs
(see Table 1).
Table 1. Variables Description
Variables Description Range
Earthquake Zoning Index (EZI) 0.05 – 1.00
Type of Foundation (TOF) 1 = footplate,
2 = shallow bored pile,
3 = driven pile,
4 = bored pile
Depth of Foundation (DOF) 2.50 – 30.00 m
Number of Twin Block (NTB) 0.50 – 2.00
Type of Corridor (TOC) 1 = double loaded,
2 = single loaded
Number of Units (NOU) 16 – 196
Number of Storeys (NOS) 2 – 5
Height of Building (HOB) 9.1 – 15.4 m
Building Footprint Area (BFA) 468 – 2230 m2
Height of Storey (HOS) 2.88 – 3.30 m
Length of Perimeter (LOP) 89.4 – 337.8 m
Gross Floor Area (GFA) 1,358 – 9103 m2
Usable Floor Area (UFA) 549 – 4909 m2
Area per Unit (APU) 18.72 – 39.32 m2
Wet Floor Area (WFA) 94.18 – 663.07 m2
Exterior Wall Area (EWA) 876 – 5202 m2
Number of Units per Number
of Storeys Ratio (UPSR)
5.3 – 39.2
Usable Floor Area per Gross
Floor Area Ratio (UPGR)
0.239 – 0.626
Length of Perimeterper
Gross Floor Area Ratio (PPGR)
0.099 – 0.033
Building Footprint Areaper
Gross Floor Area Ratio (FPGR)
0.222 – 0.502
Type of Finishing Wall (TFW) 1 = brick,
2 = lightweight
concrete
Duration of Project (DOP) 4.66 – 12.23 months
Construction COST (IDRx1000) 4256814 – 24492799
Data normalization to adjust costs for location
and time is required to ensure that the cost data are
on the same basis. In this study, December 2010 and
Jakarta were selected as the base year and the base
location, respectively. The datasets were divided into
two parts by random sampling. The first group
containing 50 datasets were used as training data to
develop the model and the second group of 5
datasets were used as testing data to test the model.
3.2RANFIS Model
To develop the regression model, software
package SPSS Statistic Release17 was used.
Running of the same project data, linear and non-
linear regressions were applied to determine the best
fitmodel. Because the computed coefficient of
determination (R2
) as well as the adjusted R2
of non-
linear model were higher than those of the linear
model, the former was employed for subsequent
analysis. This model suggested that Gross Floor
Area (GFA), Area per Unit (APU), Type of
Foundation (TOF), and Number of Units per
Number of Storey Ratio (UPSR) were found to be
statistically significant and therefore used as input
variables for ANFIS-based method. The Matlab
R2009a was used to develop the ANFIS model. This
research developed two RANFIS models based on
the variation of the number grid of partitions, rules
and the type of membership functions for each
variable, as described in Table 2. Considerable time
must be spent in determining the grid partition
numbers and types of membership functions, which
also required a few trial and error processes.
The ANFIS was trained by a hybrid learning
algorithm. Once the training process was completed,
a fuzzy inference system (FIS) will be subsequently
formed. The associated fuzzy membership functions
of the linguistic terms for input variables are shown
in Fig. 3. The knowledge of the model was stored in
a fuzzy rule base, as shown in Fig. 4. All these
findings have been reported in Latief et al [7] and
interested readers may wish to consult with this
reference for more detailed discussions.
Table 2. Variations on RANFIS Model
Parameters RANFIS1 RANFIS2
Input/ 4Var GFA, APU,
TOF, UPSR
GFA, APU,
TOF, UPSR
Output/ 1 Var Construction
Cost (IDRο‚΄1000)
Construction
Cost (IDRο‚΄1000)
Grid of Partition 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5
Rules 500 625
MF of Var. 1 Generalized bell Trapezoidal
MF of Var. 2 Generalized bell Trapezoidal
MF of Var. 3 Trapezoidal Trapezoidal
MF of Var. 4 Triangular Trapezoidal
Output MF Constant Constant
The fuzzy decision rules can be visualized and
evaluated manually by domain experts. For example,
the first fuzzy IF-THEN rule of the fuzzy rule base,
shown in Fig. 4, can be interpreted as follows: IF
number of units per number of storeys ratio (UPSR)
is 17 AND area per unit (APU) is 32.17 m2
AND
total gross floor area (GFA) is 8,043 m2
AND type
of foundation (TOF) is driven pile (3), THEN the
total construction cost is around IDR(ο‚΄1000)
2.2E+007 or IDR. 22 billion.
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ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 11, (Part - 4) November 2015, pp.33-38
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Figure 3. Membership Functions ofAPU and GFA of
RANFIS1
Figure 4. Fuzzy Rule Base of RANFIS1
3.3CBR-GA Model
Likewise, two CBR-GA models were developed
based on the determinant variables from the
correlation analysis and RA, as presented in Table 3.
These statistical methods were used to select
independent variables that have significant influence
to construction cost. As shown, one model using
correlation analysis (significant at p =.05) to obtain
significant cost drivers (CBR-GA1) employed a
much larger number of variables (i.e. 15 variables)
for cost estimation. Another model used the same
input variables of that of RANFIS based models
(CBR-GA2). The case based on each model was
then developed using the same 50 datasets.
Table 3. Variables of CBR-GA Modeling
Model Variables
CBR-GA1
(Correlation)
NTB, NOU, UPSR,
APU, LOP, GFA,
UFA, PPGR, HOB,
BFA, NOS, HOS,
EWA, TOF, FPGR
CBR-GA2 (Non
linier Regression)
GFA, APU, TOF,
UPSR
IV. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
The RANFIS and CBR-GA models were tested
on the same 5 testing data. The accuracy
performance of the four developed models were
evaluated based on their Error rate and Mean
Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)calculated as
follows (see Table 4 for the results):
πΈπ‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘Ÿ π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ =
π΄π‘π‘‘π‘’π‘Žπ‘™ πΆπ‘œπ‘ π‘‘ βˆ’ π‘ƒπ‘Ÿπ‘’π‘‘π‘–π‘π‘‘π‘’π‘‘ πΆπ‘œπ‘ π‘‘
π΄π‘π‘‘π‘’π‘Žπ‘™ πΆπ‘œπ‘ π‘‘
π‘₯ 100%
(13)
𝑀𝐴𝑃𝐸 =
1
𝑛
πΈπ‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘Ÿ π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’
(14)
Table 4. Performance Comparison between
RANFIS and CBR-GA Models
5 Project
Testing
dataset
Error rate (%)
RAN
FIS1
RAN
FIS2
CBR-
GA1
CBR-
GA2
Project no 1 -1.22 -6.01 -1.21 -1.22
Project no 2 -2.98 -0.49 -0.20 -5.54
Project no 3 -0.40 -0.39 -0.39 -0.40
Project no 4 2.45 2.45 2.46 2.46
Project no 5 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.67
MAPE (%) 3.52 3.98 2.97 4.04
All the proposed models demonstrate
satisfactory accuracies for an early cost estimate.
Their errors span from as low as -6.01% to as high
as 10.67% with MAPEs ranging between 2.97% and
4.04% for 5 testing datasets. On average, each model
yields almost the same error for each data testing.
However, RANFIS2 had the worst performance if
compared to other models in predicting the cost of
Project #1. The largest error (i.e. 10.67%) was
resulted from CBR-GA2 model for Project #5.
On another front, RANFIS1 that used4 variables
and 3 types of membership functions (generalized
bell, trapezoidal and triangular) performed very well
with error range of between -2.98% and+10.57%
and MAPE of 3.52%. RANFIS2 with only used a
single type of membership function (trapezoidal) had
a rather poorer performance than RANFIS1,
although its number of rules is larger than that of
RANFIS1. These findingsevince that the selection of
membership function type of each variables becomes
important and a large number of grid partition
leading to increasing number of rules does not
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ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 11, (Part - 4) November 2015, pp.33-38
www.ijera.com 38|P a g e
guarantee that the model performance will be better.
The CBR-GA1 outperformed other models in
terms of MAPE and error ranges. Nevertheless, the
primary disadvantage of this model is that it required
15 variables to generate a low MAPE.On the other
hand, CBR-GA2 that used much smaller number of
variables (i.e. 4 variables) performed slightly poorer
than RANFIS1 and RANFIS2. The large number of
variables will require more resources such as the
information, time and cost, whereas these resources
are limited at the beginning of the design process.
V. CONCLUSION
In this study, RANFIS and CBR-GA models
were developed using datasets of 55 low-cost
apartment projects in Indonesia. All the models
demonstrate excellent accuracies owing to the fact
that they are early-cost estimation models which
were based on limited data and information. It has
been shown that a CBR-GA model has the best
accuracy level but it requires much more input
variables. On the other hand, RANFIS models with
only four variables were proven to have on-par
performance.
RANFIS model can be superior for estimating
construction costs at schematic design stage with
only very limited information, time and cost while
CBR-GA model which requires much more input
variables can be more appropriate in value
engineering for reviewing the schematic design
alternatives by focusing several variables that
influence the construction cost to achieve the best
value of the project.
Some future directions for additional research
can be pursued, such as the application the models to
other type of projects to validate the models and
generalize the effects of the suggested methods, and
compare the models against other hybrid AI
methods.
REFERENCES
[1] D. Pratt, Fundamentals of Construction
Estimating (Delmar, Cengage Learning, 3rd
Edition, Clifton Park, New York, 2011).
[2] W. Yu, M.J.Skibnewski, Integrating
Neurofuzzy System with Conceptual Cost
Estimation to Discover Cost-Related
Knowledge from Residential Construction
Projects, Journal of Computing in Civil
Engineering, ASCE, January/February, 2010,
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[3] L. Holm, J.E.Schaufelberger, D. Griffin, T.
Cole, Construction Cost Estimating Process
and Practices (Pearson Education.Inc, Upper
Saddle River, New Jersey, USA, 2005).
[4] G.D. Oberlender, S.M. Trost, Predicting
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Estimate Quality, Journal of Construction
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[8] S.H. Ji, M. Park, and H.S. Lee, Data
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Engineering and Management, ASCE, August,
2010, 844-853.
[9] R. Sonmez, B. Ontepeli, Predesign Cost
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Parametric Modeling, Journal of Civil
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[10] J.S.R. Jang, ANFIS : Adaptive-Network-Based
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System, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 23, No. 3,
May/June, 1993, 665-685.
[11] S.K. Pal, S.C.K. Shiu, Foundations of Soft
Case-Based Reasoning (Wiley, Hoboken, N.J.,
2004).
[12] A. Aamodt, E. Plaza, Case-based Reasoning:
Foundational Issues, Methodological Variation
and System Approaches, AI Communication,
7(1), 1994, 39-59.
[13] K.J. Kim, K. Kim, Preliminary Cost Estimation
Model Using Case-based Reasoning and
Genetic Algorithms, Journal of Computing in
Civil Engineering, ASCE,
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Comparison of Cost Estimation Methods using Hybrid Artificial Intelligence on Schematic Design Stage: RANFIS and CBR-GA

  • 1. WisnuIsvara et al.Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 11, (Part - 4) November 2015, pp.33-38 www.ijera.com 33|P a g e Comparison of Cost Estimation Methods using Hybrid Artificial Intelligence on Schematic Design Stage: RANFIS and CBR-GA WisnuIsvara*, Yusuf Latief*, Andreas Wibowo**, MurthadaAskari* *(Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Indonesia, Indonesia) **(Agencyfor Research and Development, Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing, Indonesia) ABSTRACT Cost estimating at schematic design stage as the basis of project evaluation, engineering design, and cost management, plays an important role in project decision under a limited definition of scope and constraints in available information and time, and the presence of uncertainties. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of cost estimation models of two different hybrid artificial intelligence approaches: regression analysis-adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (RANFIS) and case based reasoning-genetic algorithm (CBR- GA) techniques. The models were developed based on the same 50 low-cost apartment project datasets in Indonesia. Tested on another five testing data, the models were proven to perform very well in term of accuracy. A CBR-GA model was found to be the best performer but suffered from disadvantage of needing 15 cost drivers if compared to only 4 cost drivers required by RANFIS for on-par performance. Keywords-Case basedreasoning, costestimation, geneticalgorithm, neuro fuzzy, regressionanalysis I. INTRODUCTION The accuracy of estimation of construction costs from the beginning to the end of projectis a critical factor to the success of the project. At the first phase of design, the schematic design will be prepared and a preliminary estimate can be made when the schematic design develops. The objectives of the preliminary estimate are to design the project within the owner’s budget and to evaluate alternative design concepts [1]. However, due to lack of detailed design information during the planning phase, accurate cost estimation is hard to obtain even for professional cost estimators [2]. It has been widely acknowledged that inaccuracies are the main problem in early cost estimates. This is because estimation exercises are often based upon limited data and information available at the time of preparing estimates. According to Holm et al [3], the expected accuracy range of cost estimating at schematic design stage is +10–20%. Oberlander and Trost [4] explained that what was known about the project (scope) and how was the estimate preparedhave relative influence of 38.6% and 23.5% to the accuracy of early cost estimates, respectively. A large number of cost estimation models have been developed by previous research. Cost estimation models were traditionally based on statistical methods, including the widely used regression analysis (RA). This analysis method is a very powerful statistical tool that can be used as both an analytical and predictive technique in examining the contribution of potential new items to the overall estimate reliability [5]. A major disadvantage of regression-based techniques is that the mathematical form has to be defined before any analysis can be performed [6]. However, the rapid development of information and computational technologies now allows the use of more sophisticated techniques, such as neural networks (NN), fuzzy logic (FL), case based reasoning (CBR), genetic algorithms (GA)to overcome this constraint andmany research studies have been done in this area. For examples, NN affords a capacity to learn from past data and generalize solutions for future applications; FL allows for tolerance of real world imprecision and uncertainties; CBR solves the new problem by adapting previously determined solutions of the similar previous cases and storing the new successful solution for future use; and GA facilities global optimization of parameters. At present, more recent research efforts have been directed toward artificial-intelligence (AI) hybrid models that combine AI techniques from one another to obtain better algorithms and, thus, better accuracies. These AI methods include as neurofuzzy system (NFS), fuzzy neural network (FNN), evolutionary fuzzy hybrid neural network (EFHNN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), case based reasoning-genetic algorithm (CBR-GA), neural network-genetic algorithm (NN-GA) that gain growing popularity for cost estimation models. Latief et al [7] developed a preliminary cost estimation model incorporating RA and ANFIS, named as RANFIS model. They found that their RANFIS model performed much better than RA and NN models. RANFIS as a hybrid model that integrated three powerful techniques (RA, NN, and RESEARCH ARTICLE OPEN ACCESS
  • 2. WisnuIsvara et al.Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 11, (Part - 4) November 2015, pp.33-38 www.ijera.com 34|P a g e FL) has demonstrated better accuracy performance than other models that only used RA or NN alone. The next question is how about the performance of RANFIS model when compared with another hybrid model that combines several different techniques. This paper further tests the performance of RANFIS against another type of hybrid AI method, a CBR- GA technique. II. METHODOLOGY 2.1 RANFIS Model [7] The RANFIS model is an early-costestimation model incorporating RA and ANFIS, as described in Fig. 1. This model employs RA on collected historical data to determine significant building parameters as key cost drivers. The stepwise regression method wasused to address multicollinearity issues among input variables that are common in statistical data analysis [8]. Given that inclusion of insignificant parameters into a model could lead to a poor prediction outcome, elimination of insignificant parameters may improve the prediction performance of the model [9]. The output of this stage will be the input for the ANFIS model. Figure 1. RANFIS Model : Regression Analysis and ANFIS Incorporated ANFIS was developed by Jang [10] and is one of the best tradeoffs between neural and fuzzy systems. Fuzzy systems are effective in representing explicit, but ambiguous common sense knowledge while NNs provide excellent facilities for approximating data, learning knowledge from data, and parallel processing. ANFIS model has five levels of layered architecture. The nodes in the first and fourth layers are adaptive nodes and the nodes in the second, third and fifth layers are fixed nodes. It is assumed that the fuzzy inference system has two inputs (significant parameters) X1 and X2 and one output Y and that the rule base contains two fuzzy if-then rules: Rule 1: If X1 is A1 and X2 is B1, then f1 = p1x1 + q1x2 + r1 Rule 2: If X1 is A2 and X2 is B2, then f2 = p2x1 + q2x2 + r2 In the first layer, input values are converted to their respective membership values by corresponding membership functions as in equations (1) and (2). The membership function can be any appropriate parameterized membership function such as generalized bell function like in equation (3), where ai, bi, ci are the parameter sets and referred to as premise parameters. 𝑂1,𝑖 = πœ‡ 𝐴 𝑖 π‘₯1 π‘“π‘œπ‘Ÿ 𝑖 = 1,2 π‘œπ‘Ÿ (1) 𝑂1,𝑖 = πœ‡ 𝐡 π‘–βˆ’2 π‘₯2 π‘“π‘œπ‘Ÿ 𝑖 = 3,4 (2) ΞΌA x = 1 1 + xiβˆ’ci ai 2bi (3) In the second layer, every node in this layer is a fixed node and represents the fire strength of the rule. The output is then the product of all incoming signals. 𝑂2,𝑖 = 𝑀𝑖 = πœ‡ 𝐴 𝑖 π‘₯1 . πœ‡ 𝐡 𝑖 π‘₯2 , 𝑖 = 1,2 (4) The third layer normalizes the rule strengths. The i- th node calculates the ratio of the i-th rule’s firing strength to the sum of all rule’s firing strengths: 𝑂3,𝑖 = 𝑀𝑖 = 𝑀𝑖 𝑀1 + 𝑀2 , 𝑖 = 1,2 (5) In the fourth layer, the consequent parameters of the rule are determined. Every node i in this layer is an adaptive node with a node function: 𝑂4,𝑖 = 𝑀𝑖 𝑓𝑖 = 𝑀𝑖(𝑝𝑖 π‘₯1 + π‘žπ‘– π‘₯2 + π‘Ÿπ‘–) (6) Where𝑀𝑖is the output of the layer 3 and 𝑝𝑖, π‘žπ‘–, π‘Ÿπ‘– are the parameter sets of this node (consequent parameters). The output of the fifth layer computes the overall input as the summation of all incoming signals, and linear in consequent parameters p, q, r. 𝑂5,𝑖 = 𝑀𝑖 𝑓𝑖𝑖 𝑀𝑖𝑖 = 𝑀1 𝑝1 π‘₯1 + π‘ž1 π‘₯2 + π‘Ÿ1 + 𝑀2(𝑝2 π‘₯1 + π‘ž2 π‘₯2 + π‘Ÿ2) (7) ANFIS is trained by a hybrid learning algorithm since it combines the gradient descent method and the least squares method. It employs gradient descent to fine-tune the premise parameters that define membership functions and uses the least square method to identify consequent parameters
  • 3. WisnuIsvara et al.Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 11, (Part - 4) November 2015, pp.33-38 www.ijera.com 35|P a g e that define the coefficients of each output equations. ANFIS modeling process starts by obtaining a data set (input-output data pairs) and dividing it into training and testing datasets. The training dataset is used to find the initial premise parameters for the membership functions by equally spacing each of the membership functions. A threshold value for errors between the actual and desired output is determined. The consequent parameters areobtained using the least square method, so error for each data pair can befound. If anerror is larger than the threshold, the premise parameters will be updated using the gradient descent method. This process is then iterated to minimize errors and will be terminated when the final error is less than the threshold. 2.2CBR-GA Model The CBR-GA model is a hybrid approach that combines CBR with GA. The CBR is the process of retrieving previous cases similar to a new problem, solving the new problem by adapting previously determined solutions of the similar previous cases, and storing the new successful solution for future use [11]. A CBR requires four steps: retrieve, reuse, revise and retain [12], as shown in Fig. 2. Cases are represented by attributes describing the circumstance of the problem and its solution. Similar previous cases best matching the new problem are retrieved. The solutions of the retrieved cases are then adapted to fit the new problem. Finally, new solutions are retained for future use once it has been approved. The GA is a method of intelligently searching for an optional solution based on the genetics and natural selections [13]. GA is an iterative procedure that maintains a population of candidate solutions to optimize the similarity function. The role of GA in the CBR process is used to optimize the outcome in the retrieval process. In this process GA isused to find the value of the variable weight. Figure 2. Case Based Reasoning Cycle To make the similarity function, it is assumed that cost of a project for a particular case can be formulated with appropriate weighting variables: Ck = w1.X1k + w2.X2k + w3.X3k+ .....+ wi.Xik (8) WhereCkis cost of project k, wiis variable weight iandXikis the value of variable i in case of project k. However, the concept of equation 8 is technically difficult to apply because the values of wi should be the inverse of the values of input variables Xik. While the space of input variable is not necessarily an nο‚΄n symmetric matrix, the order is not possible for inversion. To address this problem, it needs optimizations using a GA to obtain the weight of each variable (wi). The first step is to find the distribution of the distance between case-based variables with a test-case variable using the formula: 𝐷𝑖𝑑 = π‘₯𝑖1 βˆ’ π‘₯𝑑1 2 + π‘₯𝑖2 βˆ’ π‘₯𝑑2 2+. . π‘₯π‘–π‘˜ βˆ’ π‘₯π‘‘π‘˜ 2 (9) WhereDitis the distribution of the distance of base case to test case variable, xik is the value of variable i in case k, and Xtk is the value of variable i in the test case. The variable weights wi, can be obtained using the equation: 𝑀𝑖 = 1 𝐽 βˆ’ 1 1 βˆ’ 𝐷𝑖𝑑 π·π‘–π‘‘π‘‘π‘œπ‘‘π‘Žπ‘™ (10) Wherewiis variable weight i, J is number of variables and Dittotal is total Dit. It is essential to find the value of the similarity between the value of variable i in case k with the value of variable i in test case. The value of attribute similarities can then be obtained using the following equation: 𝑉𝑆𝑖 = 𝑀𝑖𝑛 (π‘‹π‘–π‘˜, 𝑋𝑖𝑑) π‘€π‘Žπ‘₯ (π‘‹π‘–π‘˜, 𝑋𝑖𝑑) 𝑀𝑖 (11) where VSi is value of similarity for variable i, Min (xik,xit) is minimum between variable i in case k (i.e. base case) and variable iin test case, Max (xik,xit) is maximum between variable i in case k and variable iin test case. Case similarity values can be obtained by summing up VS values of each variable and those with the highest total similarity will be the selected case to be reused. The contract value of the reuse process cannot be simply used here. It should be revised based on the difference value of variables that exist in the reuse case and test case, using the equation:
  • 4. WisnuIsvara et al.Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 11, (Part - 4) November 2015, pp.33-38 www.ijera.com 36|P a g e RCi = (Xit-xiu) x UCi (12) WhereRCi is Revision Cost for variable i, Xit is the value of variable i in test case, xiu is the value of variable i in reuse case and UCi is unstandardized coefficient of variable i from RA. III. MODEL APPLICATION 3.1 Data and Variables [7] The historical data of 55 low-cost apartment projects in 19 provinces built by Indonesia’s ex- Ministry of Public Housing from 2008 to 2011 were taken as case studies. A total of 22 inputs were initially identified as cost-driver candidates and the output variable was contractual construction costs (see Table 1). Table 1. Variables Description Variables Description Range Earthquake Zoning Index (EZI) 0.05 – 1.00 Type of Foundation (TOF) 1 = footplate, 2 = shallow bored pile, 3 = driven pile, 4 = bored pile Depth of Foundation (DOF) 2.50 – 30.00 m Number of Twin Block (NTB) 0.50 – 2.00 Type of Corridor (TOC) 1 = double loaded, 2 = single loaded Number of Units (NOU) 16 – 196 Number of Storeys (NOS) 2 – 5 Height of Building (HOB) 9.1 – 15.4 m Building Footprint Area (BFA) 468 – 2230 m2 Height of Storey (HOS) 2.88 – 3.30 m Length of Perimeter (LOP) 89.4 – 337.8 m Gross Floor Area (GFA) 1,358 – 9103 m2 Usable Floor Area (UFA) 549 – 4909 m2 Area per Unit (APU) 18.72 – 39.32 m2 Wet Floor Area (WFA) 94.18 – 663.07 m2 Exterior Wall Area (EWA) 876 – 5202 m2 Number of Units per Number of Storeys Ratio (UPSR) 5.3 – 39.2 Usable Floor Area per Gross Floor Area Ratio (UPGR) 0.239 – 0.626 Length of Perimeterper Gross Floor Area Ratio (PPGR) 0.099 – 0.033 Building Footprint Areaper Gross Floor Area Ratio (FPGR) 0.222 – 0.502 Type of Finishing Wall (TFW) 1 = brick, 2 = lightweight concrete Duration of Project (DOP) 4.66 – 12.23 months Construction COST (IDRx1000) 4256814 – 24492799 Data normalization to adjust costs for location and time is required to ensure that the cost data are on the same basis. In this study, December 2010 and Jakarta were selected as the base year and the base location, respectively. The datasets were divided into two parts by random sampling. The first group containing 50 datasets were used as training data to develop the model and the second group of 5 datasets were used as testing data to test the model. 3.2RANFIS Model To develop the regression model, software package SPSS Statistic Release17 was used. Running of the same project data, linear and non- linear regressions were applied to determine the best fitmodel. Because the computed coefficient of determination (R2 ) as well as the adjusted R2 of non- linear model were higher than those of the linear model, the former was employed for subsequent analysis. This model suggested that Gross Floor Area (GFA), Area per Unit (APU), Type of Foundation (TOF), and Number of Units per Number of Storey Ratio (UPSR) were found to be statistically significant and therefore used as input variables for ANFIS-based method. The Matlab R2009a was used to develop the ANFIS model. This research developed two RANFIS models based on the variation of the number grid of partitions, rules and the type of membership functions for each variable, as described in Table 2. Considerable time must be spent in determining the grid partition numbers and types of membership functions, which also required a few trial and error processes. The ANFIS was trained by a hybrid learning algorithm. Once the training process was completed, a fuzzy inference system (FIS) will be subsequently formed. The associated fuzzy membership functions of the linguistic terms for input variables are shown in Fig. 3. The knowledge of the model was stored in a fuzzy rule base, as shown in Fig. 4. All these findings have been reported in Latief et al [7] and interested readers may wish to consult with this reference for more detailed discussions. Table 2. Variations on RANFIS Model Parameters RANFIS1 RANFIS2 Input/ 4Var GFA, APU, TOF, UPSR GFA, APU, TOF, UPSR Output/ 1 Var Construction Cost (IDRο‚΄1000) Construction Cost (IDRο‚΄1000) Grid of Partition 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 Rules 500 625 MF of Var. 1 Generalized bell Trapezoidal MF of Var. 2 Generalized bell Trapezoidal MF of Var. 3 Trapezoidal Trapezoidal MF of Var. 4 Triangular Trapezoidal Output MF Constant Constant The fuzzy decision rules can be visualized and evaluated manually by domain experts. For example, the first fuzzy IF-THEN rule of the fuzzy rule base, shown in Fig. 4, can be interpreted as follows: IF number of units per number of storeys ratio (UPSR) is 17 AND area per unit (APU) is 32.17 m2 AND total gross floor area (GFA) is 8,043 m2 AND type of foundation (TOF) is driven pile (3), THEN the total construction cost is around IDR(ο‚΄1000) 2.2E+007 or IDR. 22 billion.
  • 5. WisnuIsvara et al.Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 11, (Part - 4) November 2015, pp.33-38 www.ijera.com 37|P a g e Figure 3. Membership Functions ofAPU and GFA of RANFIS1 Figure 4. Fuzzy Rule Base of RANFIS1 3.3CBR-GA Model Likewise, two CBR-GA models were developed based on the determinant variables from the correlation analysis and RA, as presented in Table 3. These statistical methods were used to select independent variables that have significant influence to construction cost. As shown, one model using correlation analysis (significant at p =.05) to obtain significant cost drivers (CBR-GA1) employed a much larger number of variables (i.e. 15 variables) for cost estimation. Another model used the same input variables of that of RANFIS based models (CBR-GA2). The case based on each model was then developed using the same 50 datasets. Table 3. Variables of CBR-GA Modeling Model Variables CBR-GA1 (Correlation) NTB, NOU, UPSR, APU, LOP, GFA, UFA, PPGR, HOB, BFA, NOS, HOS, EWA, TOF, FPGR CBR-GA2 (Non linier Regression) GFA, APU, TOF, UPSR IV. RESULT AND DISCUSSION The RANFIS and CBR-GA models were tested on the same 5 testing data. The accuracy performance of the four developed models were evaluated based on their Error rate and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)calculated as follows (see Table 4 for the results): πΈπ‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘Ÿ π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ = π΄π‘π‘‘π‘’π‘Žπ‘™ πΆπ‘œπ‘ π‘‘ βˆ’ π‘ƒπ‘Ÿπ‘’π‘‘π‘–π‘π‘‘π‘’π‘‘ πΆπ‘œπ‘ π‘‘ π΄π‘π‘‘π‘’π‘Žπ‘™ πΆπ‘œπ‘ π‘‘ π‘₯ 100% (13) 𝑀𝐴𝑃𝐸 = 1 𝑛 πΈπ‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘Ÿ π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ (14) Table 4. Performance Comparison between RANFIS and CBR-GA Models 5 Project Testing dataset Error rate (%) RAN FIS1 RAN FIS2 CBR- GA1 CBR- GA2 Project no 1 -1.22 -6.01 -1.21 -1.22 Project no 2 -2.98 -0.49 -0.20 -5.54 Project no 3 -0.40 -0.39 -0.39 -0.40 Project no 4 2.45 2.45 2.46 2.46 Project no 5 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.67 MAPE (%) 3.52 3.98 2.97 4.04 All the proposed models demonstrate satisfactory accuracies for an early cost estimate. Their errors span from as low as -6.01% to as high as 10.67% with MAPEs ranging between 2.97% and 4.04% for 5 testing datasets. On average, each model yields almost the same error for each data testing. However, RANFIS2 had the worst performance if compared to other models in predicting the cost of Project #1. The largest error (i.e. 10.67%) was resulted from CBR-GA2 model for Project #5. On another front, RANFIS1 that used4 variables and 3 types of membership functions (generalized bell, trapezoidal and triangular) performed very well with error range of between -2.98% and+10.57% and MAPE of 3.52%. RANFIS2 with only used a single type of membership function (trapezoidal) had a rather poorer performance than RANFIS1, although its number of rules is larger than that of RANFIS1. These findingsevince that the selection of membership function type of each variables becomes important and a large number of grid partition leading to increasing number of rules does not
  • 6. WisnuIsvara et al.Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 11, (Part - 4) November 2015, pp.33-38 www.ijera.com 38|P a g e guarantee that the model performance will be better. The CBR-GA1 outperformed other models in terms of MAPE and error ranges. Nevertheless, the primary disadvantage of this model is that it required 15 variables to generate a low MAPE.On the other hand, CBR-GA2 that used much smaller number of variables (i.e. 4 variables) performed slightly poorer than RANFIS1 and RANFIS2. The large number of variables will require more resources such as the information, time and cost, whereas these resources are limited at the beginning of the design process. V. CONCLUSION In this study, RANFIS and CBR-GA models were developed using datasets of 55 low-cost apartment projects in Indonesia. All the models demonstrate excellent accuracies owing to the fact that they are early-cost estimation models which were based on limited data and information. It has been shown that a CBR-GA model has the best accuracy level but it requires much more input variables. On the other hand, RANFIS models with only four variables were proven to have on-par performance. RANFIS model can be superior for estimating construction costs at schematic design stage with only very limited information, time and cost while CBR-GA model which requires much more input variables can be more appropriate in value engineering for reviewing the schematic design alternatives by focusing several variables that influence the construction cost to achieve the best value of the project. Some future directions for additional research can be pursued, such as the application the models to other type of projects to validate the models and generalize the effects of the suggested methods, and compare the models against other hybrid AI methods. REFERENCES [1] D. Pratt, Fundamentals of Construction Estimating (Delmar, Cengage Learning, 3rd Edition, Clifton Park, New York, 2011). [2] W. Yu, M.J.Skibnewski, Integrating Neurofuzzy System with Conceptual Cost Estimation to Discover Cost-Related Knowledge from Residential Construction Projects, Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, ASCE, January/February, 2010, 35-44. [3] L. Holm, J.E.Schaufelberger, D. Griffin, T. Cole, Construction Cost Estimating Process and Practices (Pearson Education.Inc, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, USA, 2005). [4] G.D. Oberlender, S.M. Trost, Predicting Accuracy of Early Cost Estimates Based on Estimate Quality, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE,127(3), 2001, 173–182. [5] R.M. Skitmore, B.R.T. Patchell, Developments in Contract Price Forecasting and Bidding Techniques. Quantity Surveying Techniques: New directions (P.S. Brandon,ed., BSP Professional Books, Oxford, U.K., 1990). [6] R.C. Creese, andL. Li, Cost estimation of timber bridges using neural networks, Cost Engineering, Vol.37, No. 5, 1995, 17-22. [7] Y. Latief, A. Wibowo, and W. Isvara, Preliminary Cost Estimation using Regression Analysis Incorporated with Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System, International Journal of Technology, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2013, 63-72. [8] S.H. Ji, M. Park, and H.S. Lee, Data Preprocessing-Based Parametric Cost Model for Building Projects: Case Studies of Korean Construction Projects, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, August, 2010, 844-853. [9] R. Sonmez, B. Ontepeli, Predesign Cost Estimation of Urban Railway Projects With Parametric Modeling, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 15(4), 2009, 405-409. [10] J.S.R. Jang, ANFIS : Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System, IEEE Transaction On System, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 23, No. 3, May/June, 1993, 665-685. [11] S.K. Pal, S.C.K. Shiu, Foundations of Soft Case-Based Reasoning (Wiley, Hoboken, N.J., 2004). [12] A. Aamodt, E. Plaza, Case-based Reasoning: Foundational Issues, Methodological Variation and System Approaches, AI Communication, 7(1), 1994, 39-59. [13] K.J. Kim, K. Kim, Preliminary Cost Estimation Model Using Case-based Reasoning and Genetic Algorithms, Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, ASCE, November/December, 2010, 499-505.