This document discusses exponential changes in energy and technology that will shape our future. It outlines how global population growth and urbanization will increase the need for sustainable food and energy solutions. New technologies like AI, robotics, and renewable energy sources could enable more efficient food production in cities and low-cost renewable electricity. The costs of solar and wind power, as well as battery storage, are declining exponentially according to trends and many countries are achieving very low costs for renewable energy already. This transition to sustainable energy sources could electrify transportation and buildings, opening up trillion dollar market opportunities. Preparing for these changes in the near future requires considering possible and preferred visions of the future.

1. glen hiemstra
exponential energy and the future

2. what is your image of the future?
probable?
possible?
preferred?

3. what is your image of the future?
probable?
possible?
preferred?
✦ Stories & Future Context
✦ Exponential Change
✦ Electrification
✦ Choices

4. ✦ urbanizing population
✦ intelligent systems
✦ emerging electric century
long term future context

5. ✦ global population growth from 7.6 billion to ~ 9.5 billion....
✦ with 80% living in cities / metro areas vs ~70% today
✦ requires energy-food-infrastructure innovation
generations in cities

6. ✦ in the next 30 years we have to produce
about 50% more food annually than we do
today
global food challenge

7. sky greens urban farm, Singapore
Mithun Architects 23 story proposal
for Seattle, 300 residences, 1.35 acres crops,
chicken farm, cafe, etc.
The Urban Skyfarm by Aprilli Design Studio, a vertical farm design proposed for a site in downtown SEOUL.
http://science-union.org/articlelist/2017/3/29/bringing-farms-to-cities

8. nano | bio | info | cogno | robo | space
autonomy | mixed reality 3D | AI | blockchain

10. Autzen Stadium - 54,000
Photo u/ShotsOfWhiskey

11. Autzen Stadium - 54,000

12. 15 hours 15.6 seconds
Autzen Stadium - 54,000

13. when we ignore disruptions
✦so you must
✦look for disruptive changes
✦see Preferred Future
directions as early as possible
Disruption occurs when a
new technology or concept
changes the basis of
competition in a field

14. disruptions not
a mystery

18. disrupting yourself

19. how will we power a
smarter future?
We're coupling the price of
energy to the ever-declining
cost of technology.
Ramez Naam

20. 57 ₵ / kwh
28.5x Price Decline
2 ₵ / kwh
2020
Wind Power Cost U.S. Interior (unsubsidized)

21. India 3.8c/kwh
Morocco 2.8c/kwh
Brazil 2c/kwh
Mexico 2c/kwh
U.S. ~ 2c/kwh

22. 120 GW
650 GW
5x Growth
10 Years

23. PRICES
FALL
TAP INTO
NEW
MARKETS
INCREASED
DEMAND
LEARNING

28. Portugal: 1.3 cents /kWh
Abu Dhabi 1.5c/kwh
India 3c/kwh
Chile 2.15 c/kwh
Mexico 2c/kwh
Brazil 1.75c/kwh
New Mexico 1.5c/kwh
By 2040 – Avg. 1c/kwh

29. 20 Years 1,000x Growth
590 GW

31. Germany

32. 36 years of US
Weather / Demand Data

33. ENERGY STORAGE
courtesy
ramez
naam

34. Batteries Drop in Price at Similar Rate to Solar
courtesy
ramez
naam

37. $Trillion Opportunities

38. electrify all transportation & housing

40. where do you go from here?

42. what is your image of the future?

43. Preferred Future Planning
is not really about the future.
It is about folding the
future back on the
present so that you can
make better decisions in
the near term.

44. www.futurist.com
glen@futurist.com
thank you for your time