Exponential Energy and the Preferred Future
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A Glen Hiemstra, Founder Futurist.com, Keynote for Jacksonville FL exponential technologies conference
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Exponential Energy and the Preferred Future
- 1. glen hiemstra exponential energy and the preferred future 1
- 2. what is your image of the future? 2
- 3. when we make, not avoid, disruptions we change human future 3
- 4. ✦so you must ✦look for disruptive changes ✦see Preferred Future directions as early as possible when we ignore disruptions 4
- 5. what is your image of the future? probable? possible? preferred? 5
- 7. ✦ generations, in cities ✦ intelligent systems ✦ environment imperatives ✦ emerging electric century ✦ reinvented energy long term future 7
- 8. ✦ global population growth from 7.6 billion to ~ 9.8 billion.... ✦ with 80% living in cities / metro areas ✦ requires energy transition genera&ons in ci&es 8
- 9. 80%+ living in cities 2050 9
- 10. ✦ in the next 30 years we have to produce about 50% more food annually than we do today global food challenge 10
- 11. sky greens urban farm, Singapore Mithun Architects 23 story proposal for Seattle, 300 residences, 1.35 acres crops, chicken farm, cafe, etc. 11
- 12. 12
- 13. Teekay Corporation via YouTube 9 Feb 2018 environmental imperatives 13
- 14. how will we power a smarter future? We're coupling the price of energy to the ever-declining cost of technology. Ramez Naam 14
- 15. nano | bio | info | cogno | robo | space autonomy | mixed reality 3D | AI | blockchain 15
- 16. cost of natural gas peaking or power plant? about 6 cents per Kw/hr 16
- 18. US cents per kwh 1 10 100 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 57 ₵ / kwh 4 ₵ / kwh 15x Price Decline Wind Power Cost – US Interior (Unsubsidized) courtesy ramez naam 18
- 19. Morocco 2.8c/kwh Brazil 2c/kwh Mexico 2c/kwh U.S 2c/kwh Aug 2018 19
- 24. 24
- 25. $0.10 $1.00 $10.00 $100.00 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 cost of solar power $77.00 $0.30 250x price decline 25
- 26. India 3.8c/kwh Mexico 2.5c/kwh Abu Dhabi 2.4c/kwh Chile 2.15c/kwh 26
- 27. Tucson: 3.3 cents per kwh (2.3 cents w/ ITC) courtesy ramez naam 27
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- 33. Germany 33
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- 44. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking Fast Planned coal power capacity in pre-construction status has declined from 1,090GW in 2015 to 364GW in July 2018, with the biggest drops in China (light blue) and India (dark blue). Source: Global Coal Plant Tracker, July 2018. 44
- 45. 45
- 47. now, what if you disrupt the disruption 47
- 48. 48
- 49. “It’s a solar roof, as opposed to modules on a roof” Musk said during the earnings call. “I think this is really a fundamental part of achieving a differentiated product strategy, where you have a beautiful roof. It’s not a thing on the roof. It is the roof.” http://www.digitaltrends.com/home/elon-musk-solar-roof/#ixzz4HhUDQApB 49
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- 60. 60
- 63. where do you go from here? 63
- 64. what is your image of the future? 64
- 65. most planning is a search for more efficient past... rather than a search for new future 65
- 66. The future is not something that just happens to us The future is something we do 66