This document discusses disruptions in transportation, including electric vehicles becoming cheaper and more popular than gas vehicles, autonomous vehicles using cheaper LIDAR technology, and the rise of mobility as a service replacing personal car ownership. It also covers emerging electric aviation and maritime technologies like electric planes and ships, as well as autonomous ferries and container ships. Renewable energy technologies like sails and underwater bubbles are improving ship efficiency. The transition to electric, autonomous, and renewable transportation will significantly impact oil demand and create new business models in coming decades.

1. THE DISRUPTIVE DECADE
Part 2
Keith Timimi
Chief Innovation Officer, VMLY&R Asia

2. ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EVs)

3. ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE SUPERIOR TO GAS CARS
Source: Tony Seba, RethinkX

4. DISRUPTION FROM ABOVE – ELECTRIC VEHICLES
COST OF EV WITH 200-MILE (320KM) RANGE
Source: Tony Seba, RethinkX

5. Source: McKinsey Analysis, EV-volumes.com
EV SALES UP 300X SINCE 2010

6. VACUUM CLEANER MAKER DYSON TO BUILD ELECTRIC CAR
Talk about a Clean Energy Revolution J
Sources: Autocar, Channel News Asia, 2018

7. AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES (AVs)

8. COST OF LIDAR DROPS EXPONENTIALLY FROM $70K - $1K
A SV Startup company announced
LIDAR for
Google announced that the cost of
technology in its self-driving car was
LIDAR Sensor (for Machine Vision) was
The next generation LIDAR was
Source: Tony Seba, RethinkX

9. GEN 3 (POSTAGE STAMP)
LIDAR MV SENSOR
GEN 1 LIDAR
GEN 2 SOLID STATE LIDAR
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
COST OF LIDAR DROPS EXPONENTIALLY FROM $70K - $1k - $90
That is a 777x Improvement in Four Years!
2019
Source: Tony Seba, RethinkX

10. COMPUTING COST CURVE
2000: 1 TERAFLOPS COSTS $46M, NEEDS 1,600 SQ FT OF SPACE
Source: Tony Seba, RethinkX

11. COMPUTING COST CURVE
2017: NVIDIA – 8 TERAFLOPS, $600. 600,000x IMPROVEMENT IN 17 YEARS!
Source: Tony Seba, RethinkX

12. APPLE vs ANDROID
Who has the
winning platforms of
the EV / AV World?
APPLE vs ANDROID
Who has the
winningest platforms
of the EV / AV World?

13. Rated 103
out of 100 by
Consumer
Reports
!

14. TESLA PRODUCTION
Tesla has grown sales faster than any automotive company in history
Sources: Tesla, Bloomberg, 2019

15. TOP 10 LUXURY CARS – US, JAN – SEP 2018

16. Source: Edmunds, OEM Data
TESLA MODEL 3
Now the top selling car in
the US by revenue
The fifth-highest by
volume

17. TESLA’S 2019 – 2020 PRODUCT ROADMAP
After a Crossing the Rubicon year in 2018, there is no slowing down in 2019
Source: Bloomberg, 2019

18. TESLA .
THE APPLE OF THE
AGE OF EVs.

19. CHINESE ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Chinse EV manufacturers are
aggressively developing brands,
experiences and features as
competition in the world’s
largest market heats up
• Electric Motorbikes – 220m
• Micro EVs – 5m
• EVs – 3m
• Electric Buses – 600k

20. MICRO EVs
/ LOW SPEED
ELECTRIC VEHICLES (LSEVs)
Over 400 Chinese Manufacturers Targeting
Lower Tier Cities

21. ONE THIRD
THE SIZE OF
A CAR,
25-43 MPH,
$1,000+

22. CHINA MARKET SHARE BY EV VEHICLE, JAN-OCT 2018
85% YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH vs 2017
Source: CleanTechnica, 2018

23. NIO is stepping up their game and raising the
bar for overall customer experience.

24. SECRET
NOMI
A voice-controlled AI smart device that can help control the
vehicle. The simple screen displays moving eyes that work
with intonation to evoke emotion & personality

25. SECRET
BATTERY SWAP STATION
Swap to a fully-charged battery in three seconds
18 stations are in use and running along major
highways

26. SECRET
MOBILE POWER BANK
Mobile battery charging vans drive to ES8 cars responding to one-click call in
the NIO owner app
It’s also available for Tesla owners for $25 USD per full-charge

27. Byton
Connectivity and Functionality over performance

28. SECRET
Display innovation. The entire dashboard is a screen that can be controlled
using gesture input by both driver and passenger.
Byton is using co-creation to define the user experience
Screens everywhere.

29. BAIDU’S APOLLO AUTONOMOUS DRIVING OPEN PLATFORM
CHALLENGING TESLA (REAL MILES) & WAYMO (VIRTUAL MILES ) IN AV DATA

30. OVER 100 PARTNERS ALREADY ON THE BAIDU APOLLO PLATFORM
YOU CAN USE THE PLATFORM FOR FREE! Don’t worry, you can trust us with your data.

31. TRANSPORT AS A
SERVICE
(TaaS)

32. Source: Tony Seba, ReThinkX
TaaS =
Ride Hailing / Sharing +
Connected +
Electric +
Autonomous Vehicles

33. TaaS WILL BE 4x – 10x CHEAPER THAN OWNING OR BUYING A CAR
As soon as regulators approve Level 5 Autonomy, expected to be 2021
Source: Tony Seba, ReThinkX
TaaS =
Ride Hailing / Sharing +
Connected +
Electric +
Autonomous Vehicles

34. US VEHICLE FLEET SHRINKS BY 80% TO 2030
AS PASSENGER MILES SHIFT PRIMARILY TO TaaS FLEETS
Source: Tony Seba, ReThinkX

35. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OIL?

37. AVIATION DISRUPTION

38. ELECTRIC PLANES
– HYBRID, FULLY ELECTRIC, VTOL, USTOL ETC

39. BOEING’S PASSENGER AIR VEHICLE HAS MAIDEN FLIGHT
Successful test on the 23rd January 2019; Airbus racing to catch up

40. MARITIME DISRUPTION

41. NEW GREENHOUSE GAS REGULATIONS COME INTO EFFECT IN 2020
Shipping has resisted regulation (successfully) for years, but that is about to change
Sources:Bloomberg, Nature Communications, safety4sea.com, 2019

42. NEW GREENHOUSE GAS REGULATIONS COME INTO EFFECT IN 2020
Shipping has resisted regulation (successfully) for years, but that is about to change
Sources:Bloomberg, Nature Communications, safety4sea.com, 2019

43. Sources: DNV GL - Maritime Forecast 2050
THE COMPOSITION OF SEA VESSELS IS SET TO CHANGE
Bulk vessels dominate, but containers set for exponential growth
35%
volume
growth
forecast

44. Sources: DNV GL - Maritime Forecast 2050
CONTAINERS / OTHER CARGO VESSELS > 50% OF FUEL
The greatest opportunity for efficiencies / cost savings / emissions reductions lies here

45. Sources: DNV GL - Maritime Forecast 2050
FUEL CONSUMPTION BY PROXIMITY TO PORT
60% of fuel is consumed while ships are in port or within 60 nautical miles

46. NORWAY
All cars 2030: Electric, 2030
All short haul flights: Electric, 2040
All Fjord vessels: Electric, 2026

47. “It was a huge jump to propel a 14,800 tonne vessel from a battery array.
Seeing it silently sail away from the quay, completely under electric power
was a breakthrough moment. However much you understand the theory,
when you look at the size of the batteries and see them moving a huge
vessel like that, it changes whatever it was you thought you knew.”
PBES Founder & CEO
Formerly Corvus CEO
Brent Perry, 2013

48. NORWAY USES OIL PROCEEDS TO CHART A CARBON-FREE FUTURE
Regulation intends to make the Fjords world’s first zero emission sea zone by 2026
Sources:Safety4sea.com, Bellona

49. ELECTRIC CARGO SHIP LAUNCHED IN CHINA, DECEMBER 2017
First fully electric cargo ship has massive 2.4 MWh Battery will power the vessel
Sources: electrek, China News

50. ELECTRIC FERRIES
The world’s largest fully electric
vehicles, the Tycho Brahe & Aurora,
started service on the 9th Nov 2018
between Denmark and Sweden
• Each ship is 238m long and
weighs 8,414 tonnes
• ABB is installed 4 MWh batteries
per ForSea-owned vessel
• They are made up of 640 6.5 kWh
battery cells
• ABB also installed giant dockside
robotic arms to operate the
charger

51. HYDROGEN-ELECTRIC FERRY
Norled is developing the world’s first hydrogen-electric hybrid ferry
Source: Safety4sea.com

52. HYDROGEN FUEL-CELL ENGINES
World’s biggest shipbuilder, Hyundai Heavy Industries, developing full hydrogen ferries
Source: Safety4sea.com

53. Sources: DNV GL - Maritime Forecast 2050
THE FUTURE IS IN ELECTRICITY AND CARBON-NEUTRAL FUELS …
… and experience with technological disruption suggests the change will be faster

54. Sources: DNV GL - Maritime Forecast 2050
DEVELOPMENT OF HYBRID & ELECTRIC SHIPS EXPLODES
… and this is likely just the beginning

55. Source: Novus Light, 2018
AUTONOMOUS SHIP MARKET EXPERIENCING EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
Current prediction is to grow from $6.1B to $13.8B by 2030

56. AUTONOMOUS FERRIES
Norwegian ferries with automatic fjord crossing capability started operations in May 2018
Source: Safety4sea.com, electrans.com

57. WORLD’S FIRST FULLY ELECTRIC & AUTONOMOUS SHIP
Due to launch in 2019 with a small crew, before fully autonomous trials in 2020
Sources:Safety4sea.com, Yara, Kongsberg

59. INTELLITUG: AUTONOMOUS AND INTELLIGENT HARBOUR TUG
Wartsila partners with MPA and PSA Marine to develop new tugging solution
Source: Wartsila, 2018

60. AUTONOMOUS ZERO EMISSIONS CONTAINER SHIPS
Samskip looking at electric-hydrogen hybrid for SeaShuttle
Source: Safety4sea.com

61. But Wait!
There’s Moore!

62. EFFICIENCY / COST REDUCTION: SAILS!
Nothing like the Black Pearl’s sails, we have to admit J
Source: Bloomberg, 2019

63. EFFICIENCY / COST REDUCTION: UNDERBELLY BUBLES
Streaming bubbles used as a natural lubricant
Source: Bloomberg, 2019

64. EFFICIENCY / COST REDUCTION: REMOTE CONTROL OF VESSELS
Augmented Reality, video and sensors will enable remote / monitored controls
Source: MarineMec.com, 2018

65. EFFICIENCY / COST REDUCTION: BLOCKCHAIN IN SHIPPING
Zim, Israel’s largest cargo shipping company, launches e Bills of Lading system
Source:CoinTelegraph, TradeWinds, 2019

66. What will the cost curves
look like for renewable
autonomous vessels?
What will be the new
Transport as a Service
business models?

67. HOW TO NAVIGATE
THE DISRUPTIVE DECADE

68. BUILDING INNOVATION CAPABILITIES
Are You Building a Horse or a Car?

70. “
BE THE
CHANGE,
OR BE THE
CHANGED.
THERE IS
NO TRY.
“
Keith Timimi

71. THANK YOU
Keith Timimi
Chief Innovation Officer, VMLY&R Asia
keith.timimi@vml.com
@KeithTimimi