How to improve app business based on data?

TURNING
NUMBERS
INTO VALUE
MARIUSZ GASIEWSKI
MINSK 10.11.2016

Source: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Duis non erat sem
Proprietary + Confidential

1USD
VALUE
100,000
DOWNLOADS
100,000
USD
BLACK
BOX
[ INPUT ] [ OUTPUT ]
THE BLACK BOX METHOD

Source: RadiumOne, January 2016
NOT ALL USERS ARE EQUALLY
15%
85%
revenue
83%
17%
users

Source: http://blog.soom.la/2016/05/estimating-segment-ltv-segment.html
[INSERT TITLE W/ KEY MESSAGE]

CLTV = ARPU x
1
+ (referral value)
Churn

CHURN
=
# of customers lost in a given period
/
# of customers at start of period

Source: http://mobiledevmemo.com/free-to-play-spreadsheet-revenue-model/

CLTV
● ARPU
● Lifetime (retention)
● Referral value

CAC
● Installs
● Uninstalls
● Opens
● Probability to spend

SEGMENT
YOUR USERS
WHO
ARE YOU?
WHAT
DO YOU DO?

SEGMENTING > UNDERSTANDING > GOING BEYOND

KEY LEARNINGS
1.
LESS THAN 15% OF ALL USERS ARE
OVER 45Y BUT THIS GROUP
REPRESENTS CLOSE TO 30% MOST
VALUABLE USERS.
2.
MAJORITY OF ALL USERS ARE
WOMEN BUT AMONGST THE MOST
VALUABLE THE RATIO IS CLOSE TO
50/50.

STEP #1
DEFINE LTV AND ITS KEY PREDICTORS

WHAT WAS FACEBOOK’S
KEY INDICATOR OF
ENGAGED USER?
Source: http://genius.com/Chamath-palihapitiya-how-we-put-facebook-on-the-path-to-1-billion-users-annotated

WHAT WAS FACEBOOK’S
KEY INDICATOR OF
ENGAGED USER?
ADDING 7 FRIENDS
IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS
Source: http://genius.com/Chamath-palihapitiya-how-we-put-facebook-on-the-path-to-1-billion-users-annotated

THE ‘AHA’ MOMENTS
FACEBOOK
7 FRIENDS IN 10 DAYS
TWITTER
FOLLOW 30 USERS
ZYNGA
COME BACK AFTER 1 DAY
DROPBOX
UPLOAD 1 FILE

STEP #2
ESURE EVENT VARIETY & FREQUENCY

2. ENSURE EVENT VARIETY & FREQUENCY
In-app events are the
minimum
recommendation
Is the range of
event/install ratio
these events should
cover in the same
user funnel
Hits (≠ conversions) per
day for all three events
are a great signal for
frequency.
Is the number of
events per funnel to
choose for predictive
optimization
3
50-5% 10k 1

INCLUDE ONE INSTAL/FIRST OPEN
1. 2.Go to conversions Check the ‘include in
conversions’ column
Change in the conversion
setting directly if not
Needs to say ‘Yes’ for one install/
first open for the promoted app
1 1.2 2.1.3

ESPECIALLY WITH FIREBASE
Now optimizing for in-app events
GAME
join_group
level_up
post_score
select_content
spend_virtual_currency
tutorial_begin
tutorial_complete
unlock_achievement
RETAIL/ECOMMERCE
add_payment_info
view_item
view_item_list
view_search_results
ecommerce_purchase
purchase_refund
add_to_cart
begin_checkout
add_to_wishlist
generate_lead
JOBS
add_payment_info
view_item_list
view_search_results
ecommerce_purchase
purchase_refund
add_to_cart
begin_checkout
add_to_wishlist
generate_lead
EDUCATION
add_payment_info
view_item_list
view_search_results
ecommerce_purchase
purchase_refund
add_to_cart
begin_checkout
add_to_wishlist
generate_lead
TRAVEL
add_payment_info
ecommerce_purchase
begin_checkout
view_item
view_item_list
view_search_results
add_to_cart
search
add_to_wishlist
LOCAL DEALS
add_payment_info
view_item_list
view_search_results
ecommerce_purchase
purchase_refund
add_to_cart
begin_checkout
add_to_wishlist
generate_lead
REAL ESTATE
add_payment_info
view_item_list
view_search_results
ecommerce_purchase
purchase_refund
add_to_cart
begin_checkout
add_to_wishlist
generate_lead

STEP #3
SEGMENT & PROMOTE IN A SCALABLE WAY

UNIVERSAL APP CAMPAIGNS
Discovering Searching Engaging Surfing Watching

SETTING RIGHT BUDGET
Min 50x tCPI
Ideally stay budget uncapped
By lowering
bids
By smaller
regional
targeting/ higher
budgets
OR

BIDDING 20% HIGHER FOR IN-APP EVENT
You bid tCPI and not tCPA!

NO FREQUENT CHANGES
For
Budget Bids
Also: Don’t change in-app events

STEP #4
LISTEN TO YOUR USER SEGMENTS

OPEN-BETA
Run an open-beta before launching publicly
● Test your app with real users, at scale
● Find product-market fit earlier
● Fine-tune game KPIs

PRIVATE FEEDBACK
Run an open-beta before launching publicly
● Feedback is private
● Doesn’t affect app rating
● Feedback shown in the Play Console

STEP #5
DESIGN FOR ENGAGEMENT AND SHARING

PUSH NOTIFICATIONS
Bingo Stack
Bingo Stack
Play now and receive $3
in free credits.
1:58 PM
Bingo Stack
Play now and receive $3
in free credits.

In-app event that matter: Sending a Charm
Shifting to value
“Universal App Campaigns helped us acquire users who got
more out of our app. The proportion of these new users
sending at least one charm was 18% higher than before the
roll out. Universal App Campaigns made it easy to align our
growth strategy with the metrics that our business cares
about most.”
Estelle Schuster,
Growth & Acquisition Specialist - Happn
Increase in registered users
sending at least 1 charm
Up to
18%

IT’S NOT ABOUT
THE LACK OF KNOWLEDGE

IT’S NOT ABOUT
THE LACK OF KNOWLEDGE
IT’S ABOUT THE
LACK OF ACTION

TOMORROW NEXT WEEK NEXT MONTH
Review your cross-
device data from
AdWords
Adjust learnings
from them to your
strategy
Test, analyze,
optimize

Going deeper

Not obvious targeting (18-24)

Attribution

Where is value?

“Thanks to Firebase integration, we’ve
eliminated discrepancies between our
internal BI and attribution tool, so we’re
more confident in our marketing spend.”
Hitwe meets its
goal of optimal
user engagement
with Firebase
- Ann Lavrisheva
PPC Manager, Hitwe
Goals
• Understand user behavior across
different segments as a way to
optimize engagement with
target audiences
Approach
• Use Firebase to analyze
performance of AdWords
campaigns as well as user behavior
• Build audience lists based on data
for optimized push-notification
campaigns
Results
• Successfully running campaigns
across channels based on
Firebase data
• Improved, consistent engagement
with audience via targeted push-
notifications
• Simplified tracking management
through Firebase’s single dashboard

“Thanks to Firebase integration, we’ve eliminated discrepancies between our internal BI and
attribution tool, so we’re more confident in our marketing spend.”
- Ann Lavrisheva
PPC Manager, Hitwe
Improved user
engagement
Via Targeted
Push-notifications
Simplified tracking
management
through Firebase’s
single dashboard
Hitwe meets its goal of
optimal user engagement
with Firebase
Successfully
running all
campaigns
based on
Firebase data

CLTV
● ARPU
● Lifetime (retention)
● Referral value

Segment or die

2. Segment or die
Segment or die

Google Confidential and Proprietary
Real segmentation

Información confidencial propiedad de Google
Usage of Remote Config
Take action using cloud platforms to maximise personalisation opportunity

Testing case study

Source: https://splitforce.com/blog/case-study-growing-mobile-ebook-revenue-25-ab-testing/

Confidence level
Margin of Error 90% 95% 99%
0.50% 36,995 36,995 62,410
1% 6,719 9,513 16,369
2% 1,689 2,395 4,143
3% 751 1,066 1,846
4% 423 600 1,039
5% 271 384 665
Statistical significance

Upsell -> Increased revenue by 30%
Upsell

Increased revenue by 20%
Personalisation and segmentation

How to improve app business based on data?

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