Using Firebase predictions for better game monetization

Proprietary + Confidential
Using Firebase predictions
for better game monetisation
Mariusz Gąsiewski,
Warsaw, 25.6.2018

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Example retention

TPU

TPU
31 688 765
years

Firebase predictions

Who will spend
anything?
Who will spend
money? Who will churn?
Who will share app
with friends?

Learn (features) Predict (label)
Past 100
days

Sufficient data?
● 10,000 monthly active users,
● 500 positive examples,
● 500 negative examples

Example prediction

Non-standard events

Now optimizing for in-app events
GAME
join_group
level_up
post_score
select_content
spend_virtual_currency
tutorial_begin
tutorial_complete
unlock_achievement
RETAIL/ECOMMERCE
add_payment_info
view_item
view_item_list
view_search_results
ecommerce_purchase
purchase_refund
add_to_cart
begin_checkout
add_to_wishlist
generate_lead
JOBS
add_payment_info
view_item_list
view_search_results
ecommerce_purchase
purchase_refund
add_to_cart
begin_checkout
add_to_wishlist
generate_lead
EDUCATION
add_payment_info
view_item_list
view_search_results
ecommerce_purchase
purchase_refund
add_to_cart
begin_checkout
add_to_wishlist
generate_lead
TRAVEL
add_payment_info
ecommerce_purchase
begin_checkout
view_item
view_item_list
view_search_results
add_to_cart
search
add_to_wishlist
LOCAL DEALS
add_payment_info
view_item_list
view_search_results
ecommerce_purchase
purchase_refund
add_to_cart
begin_checkout
add_to_wishlist
generate_lead
REAL ESTATE
add_payment_info
view_item_list
view_search_results
ecommerce_purchase
purchase_refund
add_to_cart
begin_checkout
add_to_wishlist
generate_lead
Now optimizing for in-app events

Events marked as conversion

Custom Predictions

Custom Predictions
Create up to 5 custom predictions
for top conversion events in your
app

Custom Predictions
get to 5th level

TensorFlow
First released in Nov 2015
Open-source system for distributed, parallel
machine learning
Based on general-purpose dataflow graphs
#1 Repository
for machine learning on GitHub

Proprietary + ConfidentialProprietary + Confidential
How to start with Firebase predictions?

Making predictions available

Default predictions

Enabling sending data to predictions

Using predictions

REST API

Proprietary + ConfidentialProprietary + Confidential
Firebase predictions use cases

Used Firebase Predictions
to boost retention by 20%
in their hit game Dan the
Man using the Churn
Prediction.

Dan the Man

Control group Group 1 Group 2
Level 3

A/B test: New parameter in Remote config

A/B test

Using predictions
1-Day Retention Rate 7-Day Retention Rate
Group 0: No Promotion 59.52% 25.35%
Group 1: Gift After Level 3 59.07% 25.34%
Group 2: Predicted Churners 62.12% 30.24%

Risk tolerance

Daily Bowling Challenge saw 21% increase
in IAP revenue in predicted segments

DeepTown saw a 25% revenue increase in predicted
segments
Firebase Predictions and Remote Config gave us
the power to target users based on their predictive
behavior and rapidly test different purchase flows in
our beta app. Without Firebase, we would not have
become profitable in today’s competitive mobile
gaming industry.
Avetis Zakharyan
CEO, Rockbite

DeepTown saw a 25% revenue increase in predicted
segments

Confidential + Proprietary
25% increase in revenue in
predicted Spender group

Confidential + Proprietary
24% increase in revenue in
predicted non-spender group

A Sample Report

Basic Premium
Payer Segments
Testing in monetisation

Predicted not to spend Predicted to spend
Payer Segments
Testing in monetisation
Basic Premium

New parameter in Remote config

Hybrid models are getting more and more popular
Source: AppAnnie Restrospective 2017, n=835
Monetization methods

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Predictions use cases

Notification

Firebase codelab

Summary
● There is no single recipe for best monetization
● The more competitive genre, country, the higher
importance of testing
● Check out Firebase predictions for better retention
and monetization

Questions?

Using Firebase predictions for better game monetization

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