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A/B Testing
Alexandra Paun
@ToastingIdeas
Pre Test Significances
A/A Testing
User Base

Control

Test

75%

25%
Revenue

Test
Control
Revenue

Test
Control
Pre test significances
results

biased
The Viral Gate Test
Revenue

Control
Test
Daily Active Users
1,500,000

1,450,000

1,400,000

1,350,000

1,300,000
Control
Test
1,250,000

1,200,000

1,150,000

1,100,000
Daily Active Users
7 Day Moving Average
1,440,000

1,420,000

1,400,000

1,380,000

1,360,000

1,340,000

Control
Test

1,320,000

1,300,000

1,280,000

1,260,000
3 Day Retention
18.60
18.40
18.20
18.00

17.80
17.60
17.40

Control
Test

17.20
17.00
16.80
16.60

16.40
Viral gate
Too good to be true?
The Opportunity Cost Test
Could This Be Making More
Money?
User Base

Cheap
Plasma

Expensiv
e Plasma

10%

90%
3/6/13
3/8/13
3/10/13
3/12/13
3/14/13
3/16/13
3/18/13
3/20/13
3/22/13
3/24/13
3/26/13
3/28/13
3/30/13
4/1/13
4/3/13
4/5/13
4/7/13
4/9/13
4/11/13
4/13/13
4/15/13
4/17/13
4/19/13
4/21/13
4/23/13
4/25/13
4/27/13
4/29/13
5/1/13
5/3/13
5/5/13
5/7/13
5/9/13
5/11/13
5/13/13

Revenue

Cheap Plasma

Expensive Plasma
Daily Active Users
700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000
Cheap Plasma
Expensive Plasma

300,000

200,000

100,000

0
2/28/13

3/7/13

3/14/13

3/21/13

3/28/13

4/4/13

4/11/13

4/18/13

4/25/13

5/2/13

5/9/13
Plasma bubbles sold
200,000

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

Cheap Plasma
Expensive Plasma

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0
3/6/13

3/13/13

3/20/13

3/27/13

4/3/13

4/10/13

4/17/13

4/24/13

5/1/13

5/8/13
Fire bubbles sold
100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

Cheap Plasma
Expensive Plasma

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0
3/6/13

3/13/13

3/20/13

3/27/13

4/3/13

4/10/13

4/17/13

4/24/13

5/1/13

5/8/13
Question everything
Long Run Testing
How long should I keep this
test running for?
Long enough
4/29/13

4/27/13

4/25/13

4/23/13

4/21/13

4/19/13

4/17/13

4/15/13

4/13/13

4/11/13

4/9/13

4/7/13

4/5/13

4/3/13

4/1/13

3/30/13

3/28/13

3/26/13

3/24/13

3/22/13

3/20/13

3/18/13

3/16/13

3/14/13

3/12/13

3/10/13

3/8/13

3/6/13

3/4/13

3/2/13

2/28/13

Daily Active Users

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000
Test

Control

400,000

200,000

0
4/29/13

4/27/13

4/25/13

4/23/13

4/21/13

4/19/13

4/17/13

4/15/13

4/13/13

4/11/13

4/9/13

4/7/13

4/5/13

4/3/13

4/1/13

3/30/13

3/28/13

3/26/13

3/24/13

3/22/13

3/20/13

3/18/13

3/16/13

3/14/13

3/12/13

3/10/13

3/8/13

3/6/13

1 Day Retention

22.5

22

21.5

21

20.5

20
Test

Control

19.5

19

18.5

18
4/29/13

4/27/13

4/25/13

4/23/13

4/21/13

4/19/13

4/17/13

4/15/13

4/13/13

4/11/13

4/9/13

4/7/13

4/5/13

4/3/13

4/1/13

3/30/13

3/28/13

3/26/13

3/24/13

3/22/13

3/20/13

3/18/13

3/16/13

3/14/13

3/12/13

3/10/13

3/8/13

3/6/13

Revenue

Test

Control
4/29/13

4/27/13

4/25/13

4/23/13

4/21/13

4/19/13

4/17/13

4/15/13

4/13/13

4/11/13

4/9/13

4/7/13

4/5/13

4/3/13

4/1/13

3/30/13

3/28/13

3/26/13

3/24/13

3/22/13

3/20/13

3/18/13

3/16/13

3/14/13

3/12/13

3/10/13

3/8/13

3/6/13

Revenue

Test

Control
Could this be better?
Why did I not test this?
Daily Active Users
1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0
1 Day Retention
25.00%

20.00%

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%
New Users
70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0
New Users Segementation
25,000

20,000

15,000

Featuring
10,000

5,000

0

Requests
Make your life easy. Run an A/B test
• A/A Testing
• Too good to be true (?)
• Could this be better?
• Long run tests
• Test everything
Questions?

@ToastingIdea
s

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A/B testing #eMetrics London

Editor's Notes

  1. Insert images of our charaters
  2. $ 7.5 bn in 2013$ 5.5 bn USA by 2015
  3. If you have tests that show positive improvements, and when switched live they have little or a negative effect…. This might be the cause
  4. We’re going now into gamification territory
  5. The difference in the two groups is about 40-50,000 users.
  6. The difference is between – 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points at 95% confidence.Also looks like the gap is widening…. And the other retention measure showed a similar behaviour.
  7. Running the opportunity cost calculations I discovered that we could be making on average $1,500 / day more switching to the expensive group.