Merwyn Rapid Research Subsystem Accelerates Innovation
1. Merwyn Rapid Research Subsystem
Enables Increased Innovation Speed & Decreased Risk
By Reducing Testing Time & Cost by up to 50% / 99%
1
2. The consumer is more important than raw material. It is usually
easier to replace a supplier of raw material with another than it is
to find a new consumer. And a non-consumer, one who has not
yet tried your product, is still more important to you, because he
represents a possible additional user of your product.
For this reason I shall speak to you of consumer research,
because I believe in the importance of consumer research.
Japan 1950 Lecture #1
Background Narrative
2
3. The main use of consumer research is to feed consumer
reactions back into the design of the product, so that
management can anticipate changing demands and
requirements.
Consumer research acts as a governor or servo-mechanism
which by probing into the future market regulates both the design
of the product and the amount of production.
Japan 1950 Lecture #1
Background Narrative
3
4. How long does it take to design, run and get
statistical results from customer research?
A. 1 to 2 Hours
B. 1 to 2 Days
C. 1 to 2 Weeks
D. 1 to 2 Months
E. Over 2 Months
PROBLEM
4-1
5. How long does it take to design, run and get
statistical results from customer research?
6%
8%
14%
38%
34%
A. 1 to 2 Hours
B. 1 to 2 Days
C. 1 to 2 Weeks
D. 1 to 2 Months
E. Over 2 Months
PROBLEM
4-2
6. How long does it take to design, run and get
statistical results from customer research?
6%
8%
14%
38%
34%
THAT IS NOT FAST!A. 1 to 2 Hours
B. 1 to 2 Days
C. 1 to 2 Weeks
D. 1 to 2 Months
E. Over 2 Months
PROBLEM
4-3
8. Research Takes Too Long & Is Too Expensive
SO… We Gamble Using Our Judgement
PROBLEM
5-2
9. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8PurchaseIntent
New & Different SO…We play it
safe decreasing
odds of success
Research Takes Too Long & Is Too Expensive
PROBLEM
6
10. Lets do the Math on Learning Cycle Time
Research Takes Too Long & Is Too Expensive
PROBLEM
7-1
11. 1 Month
For Test
1 Month
Analysis
1 Month
Prep
+ +
Lets do the Math on Learning Cycle Time
Research Takes Too Long & Is Too Expensive
PROBLEM
7-2
12. 1 Month
For Test
1 Month
Analysis
1 Month
Prep
+ + =
4 Learning
Cycles
a Year
Lets do the Math on Learning Cycle Time
Research Takes Too Long & Is Too Expensive
PROBLEM
7-3
14. Smarter Systems for Specific & Numeric Feedback
90 Minutes
For Test
90 Minutes
Prep
+
SOLUTION
8-2
15. Smarter Systems for Specific & Numeric Feedback
90 Minutes
For Test
90 Minutes
Prep
+ =
2
Cycles
a Day
SOLUTION
8-3
16. Smarter Systems for Specific & Numeric Feedback
90 Minutes
For Test
90 Minutes
Prep
+ =
2
Cycles
a Day
=
500
Cycles
a Year
SOLUTION
8-4
17. SOLUTION
DEVELOP
Alpha
DEFINE DISCOVER DELIVER
DEVELOP
Beta
DEVELOP
1st Release
Proof of
Concept
Prototype
Customer Data
on Concept
Tradeoff
Prototypes
Customer
Data
on Options
Functional
Prototype
Customer
Data
on Function
Sellable
Prototype
Customer
Data
on Details
Final
Offering
Customer
Data
with Revenue
Written
Prototype
Clarity
on Concept
Customer Data
on Concept
CONSERVATIVE Companies use HARD DATA
From Customer Research to Make Innovation Decisions
9-1
18. SOLUTION
DEVELOP
Alpha
DEFINE DISCOVER DELIVER
DEVELOP
Beta
DEVELOP
1st Release
Proof of
Concept
Prototype
Customer Data
on Concept
Tradeoff
Prototypes
Customer
Data
on Options
Functional
Prototype
Customer
Data
on Function
Sellable
Prototype
Customer
Data
on Details
Final
Offering
Customer
Data
with Revenue
Written
Prototype
Clarity
on Concept
Customer Data
on Concept
CONSERVATIVE Companies use HARD DATA
From Customer Research to Make Innovation Decisions
“GAMBLERS”
Rely on Gut Instinct
and Luck
9-2
20. SOLUTION
Merwyn Rapid Research Subsystem
Enables Increased Innovation Speed & Decreased Risk
By Reducing Testing Time & Cost by up to 50% / 99%
11-1
21. SOLUTION
is named in memory of
Merwyn “Buzz” Hall
Merwyn Rapid Research Subsystem
Enables Increased Innovation Speed & Decreased Risk
By Reducing Testing Time & Cost by up to 50% / 99%
11-2
22. Enables Increased Innovation Speed & Decreased Risk
By Reducing Testing Time & Cost by up to 50% / 99%
SOLUTION
imic id is tt rt
Smart Advice Validated Concept Tests & Sales Forecasts
Micro-Seconds Minutes
Hours
Specific Advice
12
24. HOW IT WORKS
Accelerate Quantitative Research Increase decision speed up to 20X decrease costs by up to 90%
14-1
25. HOW IT WORKS
Accelerate Quantitative Research Increase decision speed up to 20X decrease costs by up to 90%
Set Up
BLUE / BLACK BELT
Research
Subsystem
Leader
Establish
Boundaries
• Decision Authority
• Resources $ / time
14-2
26. HOW IT WORKS
Accelerate Quantitative Research Increase decision speed up to 20X decrease costs by up to 90%
Establish Networks
INTERNAL
Wisdom Networks
• Writing Experts
• Forecasting Experts
• Marketing Experts
• Technical Experts
• Certified Raters
EXTERNAL
Feedback Networks
• Online Systems
• Face to Face Systems
• Customer/Non Customer
• Expert Panels
Set Up
BLUE / BLACK BELT
Research
Subsystem
Leader
Establish
Boundaries
• Decision Authority
• Resources $ / time
14-3
27. HOW IT WORKS
Accelerate Quantitative Research Increase decision speed up to 20X decrease costs by up to 90%
Establish Networks
INTERNAL
Wisdom Networks
• Writing Experts
• Forecasting Experts
• Marketing Experts
• Technical Experts
• Certified Raters
EXTERNAL
Feedback Networks
• Online Systems
• Face to Face Systems
• Customer/Non Customer
• Expert Panels
Specific & Numeric
Internal Wisdom
Enable Employees
Research
COLLEGE
1 Day Specific & Numeric
External Feedback
Set Up
BLUE / BLACK BELT
Research
Subsystem
Leader
Establish
Boundaries
• Decision Authority
• Resources $ / time
14-4
28. HOW IT WORKS
Accelerate Quantitative Research Increase decision speed up to 20X decrease costs by up to 90%
Establish Networks
INTERNAL
Wisdom Networks
• Writing Experts
• Forecasting Experts
• Marketing Experts
• Technical Experts
• Certified Raters
EXTERNAL
Feedback Networks
• Online Systems
• Face to Face Systems
• Customer/Non Customer
• Expert Panels
Specific & Numeric
Internal Wisdom
Enable Employees
Research
COLLEGE
1 Day Specific & Numeric
External Feedback
Set Up
BLUE / BLACK BELT
Research
Subsystem
Leader
Establish
Boundaries
• Decision Authority
• Resources $ / time
Get Smarter
BLUE / BLACK BELT
Monthly
Research
Summits
Drive
Improvement
14-5
29. SUPER EASY
• Direct From Projects
• One PLACE for All
• Use Individually
• Use During Sessions
- Virtual Sessions
- Problem Solving
15
35. The Famous Grouse ‘Refresh’
The classic spirit infused with modern flavours
Flavoured Scottish Spirit
The master blenders at The Famous Grouse distillery have taken an age-old process as
the inspiration in creating The Famous Grouse ‘Refresh’. Taking traditional clear spirit and
applying a modern twist; infusing it with a delicate mix of local fruits and spices.
The clear spirit is taken straight from the stills without cask ageing - as it was 300 years
ago. The spirit is then blended with loganberry juice, honey and spices from the Scottish
Highlands. The result; a clear, smooth, 30% ABV drink, with a modern and easy-drinking
flavour.
Mix Famous Grouse ‘Refresh’ with ginger ale and bitters to appreciate the complex flavours,
or enjoy with fresh lime juice, cranberry and orange for maximum refreshment.
After Reading - Please CIRCLE words or images that you LIKE & CROSS OUT words or images you DISLIKE
Full Package Product
Concept & Use
Paired Comparison
Single Product
24 Hours
Scores Weighted
60% Purchase Intent
40% New & Different
21
40. Old CORE = 5.0 12% odds of Word of Mouth
New CORE = 6.0 14% odds of Word of Mouth
OLD LEAP = 6.0 14% odds of Word of Mouth
NEW LEAP = 7.5 27%% odds of Word of Mouth
LEAP into Development 7.0 - - - LEAP to Deliver 7.5
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10
LEAPCORE
Under Consideration
24
41. Merwyn Validation
Correlation = .82
Probability of Sustained
Marketplace Success
Correlation = .70
Correlation with REAL World Results
(Raw results - not adjusted for marketing support)
% Trial
Purchase Frequency
% Repeat
$/1000 Customers
0
20
40
60
%Wrong
Humans
10 %
Wrong
Merwyn is 7X Smarter than Humans
70 %
Wrong
I.R.I. Scanner Data
60% PP / 40% N&D Still in Distribution after 3 Years
25
48. 1. Start Up & Learn
Project Team
As Primary Internal
Research Panel
30-2
49. 1. Start Up & Learn
Project Team
As Primary Internal
Research Panel
Solicit & Educate
Volunteers for
Internal Panels
Ideas, Forecasting
Writing,& Evaluation
30-3
50. 1. Start Up & Learn
Project Team
As Primary Internal
Research Panel
Solicit & Educate
Volunteers for
Internal Panels
Ideas, Forecasting
Writing,& Evaluation
Systems/Panels
for testing
with Customers &
Prospects
30-4
51. 1. Start Up & Learn
Commercial Panels
Sales Force
Customer Service Staff
Trade Shows
Web Site Registrations
Trade Magazine Lists
Customer Panels
Systems/Panels
for testing
with Customers &
Prospects
31
52. 1. Start Up & Learn
SEND TO
Collaboration
Blogs
Systems/Panels
for testing
with Customers &
ProspectsSEND TO
External
E-Mail Lists
32
54. 2. Customize for Organization
Diffuse Across
Organization -
Educate & Enroll
In Panels / Blogs
Workshops
33-2
55. 2. Customize for Organization
Publish
Reference Standards
for Sales Forecasting
Diffuse Across
Organization -
Educate & Enroll
In Panels / Blogs
Workshops
33-3
56. 2. Customize for Organization
Publish
Reference Standards
for Sales Forecasting
Customize
Marketing Plan
Options
Delphi Research
Diffuse Across
Organization -
Educate & Enroll
In Panels / Blogs
Workshops
33-4
58. 3. World Class Rapid Research
Invest Time & Energy
to CERTIFY Internal
Merwyn Truth
Teller Panel
34-2
59. 3. World Class Rapid Research
Forensic Analysis of
Total GO TO MARKET
SYSTEM
Invest Time & Energy
to CERTIFY Internal
Merwyn Truth
Teller Panel
34-3
62. Expand Accelerators OUTSIDE of the EVENT LOCATION
NEW USES
ON SITE
ACCELERATOR
TEAM
OFF SITE
ACCELERATOR
TEAM
35-3
63. Expand Accelerators OUTSIDE of the EVENT LOCATION
NEW USES
407 Times in 4 Days
Teams Received Specific &/or Numeric Feedback
Teams made SMARTER DECISIONS
ON SITE
ACCELERATOR
TEAM
OFF SITE
ACCELERATOR
TEAM
35-4
64. Make Stage Gate Meetings More Valuable
NEW USES
DEVELOP
Alpha
DELIVER
DEVELOP
Beta
DEVELOP
1st ReleaseDEFINE DISCOVER
36
65. Use DATA to drive Very Important System Projects
NEW USES
VIS
Very Important
Systems
For How We WorkCreating New Capabilitiesthat enable…Growth, Cost Savings,Performance, Quality orProductivity
Problem Surveys
Idea Starter Surveys
WITH VIDEO CAPTURE
Team Feedback
NO OUT OF POCKET COST
37
66. Use Idea Doubling & Math Doubling to Get Smarter
NEW USES
Marketing Messages
Sales Pitches
Sales Forecasts
MATH
DOUBLING
38
67. What is Delphi?
It was developed at the RAND Corporation in the late 1950’s
Delphi is a validated method for getting more accurate data from groups of experts.
In academic studies it was found to be more accurate than:
• Groups that debate to “right answer” - 5 to 1 with one academic study being a tie.
• Gathering a statistical sample from experts - 12 to 2 with two academic studies being a tie.
Scott
Armstrong
COMING IN A FEW MONTHS
39
69. Delphi Uses
A powerful system for predicting the future
“In what year do you predict that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology. ”
“What are the odds that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology by 2030.”
40-2
70. Delphi Uses
A powerful system for predicting the future
“In what year do you predict that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology. ”
“What are the odds that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology by 2030.”
A powerful system for estimating numbers
“What do you think is the most consumer would pay for the following product (yellow card). ”
“Given our system of advertising, marketing and selling what percent of customers do you think
will be aware of this offering after a year of being on the market”
40-3
71. Delphi Uses
A powerful system for predicting the future
“In what year do you predict that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology. ”
“What are the odds that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology by 2030.”
A powerful system for estimating numbers
“What do you think is the most consumer would pay for the following product (yellow card). ”
“Given our system of advertising, marketing and selling what percent of customers do you think
will be aware of this offering after a year of being on the market”
A powerful system for evaluating projects & doing planning
“What percentage of our customers would stock the following product (yellow card) if
we offered it? ”
“How long do you estimate that it will take to develop this new product idea?”
40-4
75. Innovation Has 10% Odds of SuccessBenefit of
Plan, Do,
Study, Act
1.
2.
3.
4.
S
TUDY
42-2
76. Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smart
Benefit of
Plan, Do,
Study, Act
1.
2.
3.
4.
S
TUDY
42-3
77. Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smart
Now the Innovation has 20% Odds
Benefit of
Plan, Do,
Study, Act
1.
2.
3.
4.
S
TUDY
42-4
78. Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smart
Now the Innovation has 20% Odds
You fail but get twice as smart
Benefit of
Plan, Do,
Study, Act
1.
2.
3.
4.
S
TUDY
42-5
79. Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smart
Now the Innovation has 20% Odds
You fail but get twice as smart
Now the Innovation has 40% Odds
Benefit of
Plan, Do,
Study, Act
1.
2.
3.
4.
S
TUDY
42-6
80. Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smart
Now the Innovation has 20% Odds
You fail but get twice as smart
Now the Innovation has 40% Odds
You fail but get twice as smart
Benefit of
Plan, Do,
Study, Act
1.
2.
3.
4.
S
TUDY
42-7
81. Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smart
Now the Innovation has 20% Odds
You fail but get twice as smart
Now the Innovation has 40% Odds
You fail but get twice as smart
Now the Innovation has 80% Odds
Benefit of
Plan, Do,
Study, Act
1.
2.
3.
4.
S
TUDY
42-8
82. Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smart
Now the Innovation has 20% Odds
You fail but get twice as smart
Now the Innovation has 40% Odds
You fail but get twice as smart
Now the Innovation has 80% Odds
You WIN!
Benefit of
Plan, Do,
Study, Act
1.
2.
3.
4.
S
TUDY
42-9
83. It’s A Way of Living
1. Plan
What Death Threat?
2. Do
Learn
3. Study
What learned?
4. Act
Apply
Revise
Stop
S
TUDY
P•D•S•A
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