1. @agatestudio
Analyzing Game Metrics
Marvin
Clerics
Agate Studio

2. @agatestudio
Analyzing Game Metrics with
Sensitivity Analysis
&
Scenario Analysis
TDS – 21 Juni 2014
Lee Marvin- lee.marvin@agategames.com

3. @agatestudio
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

4. @agatestudio
• technique used to determine how different values of
an independent variable will impact a particular
dependent variable under a given set of
assumptions.
Definition
Usage
• Specify the most impactful variable in the metrics to
drive revenue/profit
• Improve spreadsheet model assumptions
• Using tools called SensIt (http://bit.ly/sensit131)

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Example of Output
100,000.00
2.0%
25%
$5.00
0.15
10.0%
$2.00
25.0%
45.0%
20.0%
$1.00
300,000.00
5.0%
75%
$20.00
0.30
20.0%
$5.00
35.0%
65.0%
50.0%
$1.00
$500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 $5,500,000
Users
Conversion
Retention rate
ARPPU Whales
DAU/MAU
Split Whales
ARPPU Dolphins
Split Dolphins
Split Minnows
Platform %age
ARPPU Minnows
Year one:
SensIt 1.45 Tryout Version, Only For Evaluation, www.DecisionToolworks.com

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Example of Output (cont’d)
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
$4,500,000
$5,000,000
$5,500,000
20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% 160.0% 180.0% 200.0% 220.0%
Yearone:
Input Value as % of Base Case
SensIt 1.45 Tryout Version, Only For Evaluation, www.DecisionToolworks.com
Users
Conversion
Retention rate
ARPPU Whales
DAU/MAU
Split Whales
ARPPU Dolphins
Split Dolphins
Split Minnows
Platform %age
ARPPU Minnows

7. @agatestudio
SCENARIO ANALYSIS

8. @agatestudio
• Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future
events by considering alternative possible outcomes
(sometimes called "alternative worlds"). Thus, the
scenario analysis, which is a main method of projections,
does not try to show one exact picture of the future.
Definition
Usage
• Specify the potential revenue of project
• Using tools called Crystall Ball
(http://bit.ly/crystallball)

9. @agatestudio
Example of Output

10. Excel File Example
http://bit.ly/F2Pmodel

11. Thank You