http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
Strong domestic demand allowed Sub Saharan African economies to continue their robust growth trajectory in 2012, despite subdued global demand conditions. On aggregate the region grew at 4.4 per cent in 2012 (this includes South Sudan whose GDP recorded a double digit contraction).
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Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Outlook June 2013
1. 1
Allen Dennis
World Bank
June 2013
Global
Economic
Prospects
Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Outlook
http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
2. Growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robust
Source: World Bank
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Developing (ex. China)
Sub Saharan Africa
Sub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)
(real GDP growth, % ch)
3. Growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robust
Source: World Bank
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Developing (ex. China)
Sub Saharan Africa
Sub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)
(real GDP growth, % ch)
4. Growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robust
Source: World Bank
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Developing (ex. China)
Sub Saharan Africa
Sub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)
(real GDP growth, % ch)
5. 18.2%
Fastest Growing economies in Sub Saharan Africa
(Real GDP growth in 2012, %ch)
Source: World Bank
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Brazil
Russia
India
Nigeria
Dem. Rep. of…
Zambia
Tanzania
Eritrea
Mozambique
Rwanda
China
Burkina Faso
Angola
Ghana
Ethiopia
Cote D'Ivoire
Niger
Sierra Leone 18.2%
6. 18.2%
Fastest Growing economies in Sub Saharan Africa
(Real GDP growth in 2012, %ch)
Source: World Bank
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Brazil
Russia
India
Nigeria
Dem. Rep. of…
Zambia
Tanzania
Eritrea
Mozambique
Rwanda
China
Burkina Faso
Angola
Ghana
Ethiopia
Cote D'Ivoire
Niger
Sierra Leone 18.2%
8. Much of the robust growth came from robust
domestic demand, including increased private
and public investments and resilient consumer
spending.
9. Foreign Direct Investment flows to the region remain strong
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Other Capital Inflows
Net FDI inflows
Net capital flows to Sub Saharan Africa ($billions)
Source: World Bank
10. Foreign Direct Investment flows to the region remain strong
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Other Capital Inflows
Net FDI inflows
Net capital flows to Sub Saharan Africa ($billions)
Source: World Bank
$40 bn
11. Foreign Direct Investment flows to the region remain strong
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Other Capital Inflows
Net FDI inflows
Net capital flows to Sub Saharan Africa ($billions)
Source: World Bank
$40 bn
$32 bn
12. Growth in the non-resource sector has been
strong, especially the services sector
Faster growing sectors Slower growing sectors
Nigeria Telecommunications, Hotel &
Restaurants, construction, real
estate.
Crude petroleum & natural gas
Tanzania Transport and communications,
Real estate, whole sale and retail
trade
Mining and quarrying
Botswan
a
Construction, Financial and business
services, Transport &
communications
Mining
Ghana Financial & Insurance, Information
& Communication, Real estate
Mining and quarrying
South
Africa
Finance, real estate & business
services, whole sale & retail trade
Mining and quarrying
Rwanda Industrial, and services Agriculture
Source: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
13. Growth in the non-resource sector has been
strong, especially the services sector
Faster growing sectors Slower growing sectors
Nigeria
Telecommunications,
Hotel & Restaurants, construction,
real estate.
Crude petroleum & natural gas
Tanzania Transport and communications,
Real estate, whole sale and retail
trade
Mining and quarrying
Botswan
a
Construction, Financial and business
services, Transport &
communications
Mining
Ghana Financial & Insurance, Information
& Communication, Real estate
Mining and quarrying
South
Africa
Finance, real estate & business
services, whole sale & retail trade
Mining and quarrying
Rwanda Industrial, and services Agriculture
Source: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
14. Growth in the non-resource sector has been
strong, especially the services sector
Faster growing sectors Slower growing sectors
Nigeria Telecommunications, Hotel &
Restaurants, construction, real
estate.
Crude petroleum & natural gas
Tanzania Transport and communications,
Real estate, whole sale and retail
trade
Mining and quarrying
Botswan
a
Construction, Financial and business
services, Transport &
communications
Mining
Ghana Financial & Insurance, Information
& Communication, Real estate
Mining and quarrying
South
Africa
Finance, real estate & business
services, whole sale & retail trade
Mining and quarrying
Rwanda Industrial, and services Agriculture
Source: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
15. Growth in the non-resource sector has been
strong, especially the services sector
Faster growing sectors Slower growing sectors
Nigeria Telecommunications, Hotel &
Restaurants, construction, real
estate.
Crude petroleum & natural gas
Tanzania Transport and communications,
Real estate, whole sale and retail
trade
Mining and quarrying
Botswan
a
Construction, Financial and
business services, Transport &
communications
Mining
Ghana Financial & Insurance, Information
& Communication, Real estate
Mining and quarrying
South
Africa
Finance, real estate & business
services, whole sale & retail trade
Mining and quarrying
Rwanda Industrial, and services Agriculture
Source: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
16. Growth in the non-resource sector has been
strong, especially the services sector
Faster growing sectors Slower growing sectors
Nigeria Telecommunications, Hotel &
Restaurants, construction, real
estate.
Crude petroleum & natural gas
Tanzania Transport and communications,
Real estate, whole sale and retail
trade
Mining and quarrying
Botswan
a
Construction, Financial and business
services, Transport &
communications
Mining
Ghana Financial & Insurance, Information
& Communication, Real estate
Mining and quarrying
South
Africa
Finance, real estate & business
services, whole sale & retail trade
Mining and quarrying
Rwanda Industrial, and services Agriculture
Source: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
17. Inflation has decelerated in recent months
Source: World Bank And International Financial Statistics
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13
Oil Importers Oil Exporters Sub Saharan Africa
(inflation, y/y)
20. Medium-term growth outlook for Sub Saharan Africa
remains strong
Source: World Bank
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Sub Saharan Africa Sub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)
(real GDP growth, % ch)
21. Medium-term growth outlook for Sub Saharan Africa
remains strong
Source: World Bank
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Sub Saharan Africa Sub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)
(real GDP growth, % ch)
22. Medium-term growth outlook for Sub Saharan Africa
remains strong
Source: World Bank
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Sub Saharan Africa Sub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)
(real GDP growth, % ch)
24. Risks
• External Risks
– Weaker growth in global economy
– Decline in commodity prices
• Domestic Risks
– Overheating in economies operating close to
capacity
– Adverse weather shocks
– Political unrests
25. 25
Allen Dennis
World Bank
June 2013
Global
Economic
Prospects
Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Outlook
http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
Editor's Notes
GEP 2010 Presentation
Despite a subdued recovery in the global economy, growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robust. Regional growth in 2012 is estimated at 4.4%, however, excluding the regions largest economy, South Africa growth came in at 5.4%;
Despite a subdued recovery in the global economy, growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robust. Regional growth in 2012 is estimated at 4.4%, however, excluding the regions largest economy, South Africa growth came in at 5.4%;
Despite a subdued recovery in the global economy, growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robust. Regional growth in 2012 is estimated at 4.4%, however, excluding the regions largest economy, South Africa growth came in at 5.4%;
With about a third of countries in the region growing at or above 6%.However, this robust growth performance was not shared by all countries in the region. Indeed, where political instability, severe labor unrests and exogeneos weather shocks disrupted economic activity economic growth was below par.
With about a third of countries in the region growing at or above 6%.However, this robust growth performance was not shared by all countries in the region. Indeed, where political instability, severe labor unrests and exogeneos weather shocks disrupted economic activity economic growth was below par.
Much of the robust growth came from robust domestic demand, including increased private and public investments and resilient consumer spending. For instance, foreign direct investment flows to the region in 2013 are expected to reach $40 billion, up from $32bn in 2012.These investments have supported an expansion in the productive capacity in the mining sector, thanks to high commodity prices.
Much of the robust growth came from robust domestic demand, including increased private and public investments and resilient consumer spending. For instance, foreign direct investment flows to the region in 2013 are expected to reach $40 billion, up from $32bn in 2012.These investments have supported an expansion in the productive capacity in the mining sector, thanks to high commodity prices.
Much of the robust growth came from robust domestic demand, including increased private and public investments and resilient consumer spending. For instance, foreign direct investment flows to the region in 2013 are expected to reach $40 billion, up from $32bn in 2012.These investments have supported an expansion in the productive capacity in the mining sector, thanks to high commodity prices.
However, not all the non-resource sector is also attracting investment flows, particularly the service sector. Indeed in recent years service sub sectors such as telecommunications, transportation, construction, finance and banking have been the fastest growing sectors in several economies in the region.
However, not all the non-resource sector is also attracting investment flows, particularly the service sector. Indeed in recent years service sub sectors such as telecommunications, transportation, construction, finance and banking have been the fastest growing sectors in several economies in the region.
However, not all the non-resource sector is also attracting investment flows, particularly the service sector. Indeed in recent years service sub sectors such as telecommunications, transportation, construction, finance and banking have been the fastest growing sectors in several economies in the region.
However, not all the non-resource sector is also attracting investment flows, particularly the service sector. Indeed in recent years service sub sectors such as telecommunications, transportation, construction, finance and banking have been the fastest growing sectors in several economies in the region.
However, not all the non-resource sector is also attracting investment flows, particularly the service sector. Indeed in recent years service sub sectors such as telecommunications, transportation, construction, finance and banking have been the fastest growing sectors in several economies in the region.
A deceleration in the pace of inflation supported by better weather conditions and earlier monetary tightening measures have supported household spending in the region. Household spending also benefitted from increased remittance flows. In 2013 remittances are expected to rise by an $1 billion.
Against the backdrop of robust domestic demand and a projected strengthening of global demand, real GDP growth in the region is expected to average about 5.2 percent over the 2013-2015 period. Excluding, South Africa, GDP growth will average about 6.2 percent.
Against the backdrop of robust domestic demand and a projected strengthening of global demand, real GDP growth in the region is expected to average about 5.2 percent over the 2013-2015 period. Excluding, South Africa, GDP growth will average about 6.2 percent.
Against the backdrop of robust domestic demand and a projected strengthening of global demand, real GDP growth in the region is expected to average about 5.2 percent over the 2013-2015 period. Excluding, South Africa, GDP growth will average about 6.2 percent.
Nonetheless, significant downside risks remain. These includeWeaker growth in the global economy. For instance if the projected recovery for high-income countries, embedded in our forecasts does not materialize this will reduce growth prospects in the region. Further if the recent decline in commodity prices intensifies then growth could be derailed, particulary among oil and metal exporters. However, other oil importers in the region will benefit.Increasingly domestic risks are important, these include over heating …….
Nonetheless, significant downside risks remain. These includeWeaker growth in the global economy. For instance if the projected recovery for high-income countries, embedded in our forecasts does not materialize this will reduce growth prospects in the region. Further if the recent decline in commodity prices intensifies then growth could be derailed, particulary among oil and metal exporters. However, other oil importers in the region will benefit.Increasingly domestic risks are important, these include over heating …….