Latina America & Caribbean Outlook, Jan 2014

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Latina America & Caribbean Outlook, Jan 2014

  1. 1. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Latin America & Caribbean Derek Chen World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  2. 2. Subdued global trade, softer commodity prices, and domestic challenges curbed economic growth in the Latin America and Caribbean region in 2013.
  3. 3. Economic Growth in 2013 Latin America and the Caribbean Region Real GDP Growth 2010 - 2013 % 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 4.1 4.0 3.0 2.6 2.5 2012 2013e 2.0 1.0 0.0 2010 2011
  4. 4. Economic Growth in 2013 Latin America and the Caribbean Region Real GDP Growth 2010 - 2013 % 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 4.1 4.0 3.0 2.6 2.5 2012 2013e 2.0 1.0 0.0 2010 2011
  5. 5. Economic Growth in 2013 Latin America and the Caribbean Region Real GDP Growth 2010 - 2013 % 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 4.1 4.0 3.0 2.6 2.5 2012 2013e 2.0 1.0 0.0 2010 2011
  6. 6. Economic Growth in 2013 % 4.5 Real GDP Growth 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 South America Central and North America Caribbean
  7. 7. Economic Growth in 2013 4.5 4.5 % % 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 Sout h A er i ca m Sout h A er i ca m C r al and N t h A er i ca ent or m C r al and N t h A er i ca ent or m 2012 2013e C i bbean ar C i bbean ar
  8. 8. Economic Growth in 2013 4.5 % 4.1 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Sout h A er i ca m C r al and N t h A er i ca ent or m 2012 2013e C i bbean ar
  9. 9. Economic Growth in 2013 4.5 % 4.1 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Sout h A er i ca m C r al and N t h A er i ca ent or m 2012 2013e C i bbean ar
  10. 10. Economic Growth in 2013 4.5 % 4.1 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Sout h A er i ca m C r al and N t h A er i ca ent or m 2012 2013e C i bbean ar
  11. 11. Economic Growth in 2013 4.5 % 4.1 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Sout h A er i ca m C r al and N t h A er i ca ent or m 2012 2013e C i bbean ar
  12. 12. Economic Growth in 2013 4.5 % 4.1 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Sout h A er i ca m C r al and N t h A er i ca ent or m 2012 2013e C i bbean ar
  13. 13. Slowdown in Exports and Lower Commodity Prices Latin America and the Caribbean Exports Growth and Current Account Balance (2012 & 2013) % 10.0 8.0 7.6 Merchandise Exports Growth 6.0 Current Account Balance 4.1 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.7 -2.6 -4.0 Jan-N 2012 ov Jan-N 2013 ov 2012 2013e
  14. 14. Slowdown in Exports and Lower Commodity Prices Latin America and the Caribbean Exports Growth and Current Account Balance (2012 & 2013) % 10.0 8.0 7.6 Merchandise Exports Growth 6.0 Current Account Balance 4.1 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.7 -2.6 -4.0 Jan-N 2012 ov Jan-N 2013 ov 2012 2013e
  15. 15. Slowdown in Exports and Lower Commodity Prices Latin America and the Caribbean Exports Growth and Current Account Balance (2012 & 2013) % 10.0 8.0 7.6 Merchandise Exports Growth 6.0 Current Account Balance 4.1 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.7 -2.6 -4.0 Jan-N 2012 ov Jan-N 2013 ov 2012 2013e
  16. 16. Slowdown in Exports and Lower Commodity Prices Latin America and the Caribbean Exports Growth and Current Account Balance (2012 & 2013) % 10.0 8.0 7.6 Merchandise Exports Growth 6.0 Current Account Balance 4.1 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.7 - -4.0 Jan-N 2012 ov Jan-N 2013 ov 2012 2013e 2.6
  17. 17. Slowdown in Exports and Lower Commodity Prices Latin America and the Caribbean Exports Growth and Current Account Balance (2012 & 2013) % 10.0 8.0 7.6 Merchandise Exports Growth 6.0 Current Account Balance 4.1 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.7 -2.6 -4.0 Jan-N 2012 ov Jan-N 2013 ov 2012 2013e
  18. 18. Growth Outlook Latin America and the Caribbean Projected Real GDP Growth (2014-2016) % 4.5 2014 2016 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.0 2015 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Latin America and the Caribbean South America Developing Central and North America Caribbean
  19. 19. Growth Outlook Latin America and the Caribbean Projected Real GDP Growth (2014-2016) % 4.5 2014 2016 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.0 2015 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Latin America and the Caribbean South America Developing Central and North America Caribbean
  20. 20. Growth Outlook Latin America and the Caribbean Projected Real GDP Growth (2014-2016) % 4.5 2014 2016 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.0 2015 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Latin America and the Caribbean South America Developing Central and North America Caribbean
  21. 21. Pick up in Exports % Latin America and the Caribbean Exports Growth (2012 - 2016) LAC 7.0 Central America Caribbean 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.0 4.8 5.0 3.0 5.4 4.6 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.9 3.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.0 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f
  22. 22. Pick up in Exports % Latin America and the Caribbean Exports Growth (2012 - 2016) LAC 7.0 Central America Caribbean 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.0 4.8 5.0 3.0 5.4 4.6 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.9 3.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.0 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f
  23. 23. Pick up in Exports % Latin America and the Caribbean Exports Growth (2012 - 2016) LAC 7.0 Central America Caribbean 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.0 4.8 5.0 3.0 5.4 4.6 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.9 3.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.0 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f
  24. 24. Decline in Net Capital Flows 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f $US bn $US bn % change $US bn % change $US bn % change $US bn % change Capital Inflows 312.1 296.2 -5.1 285.3 -3.7 303.8 6.5 313.8 3.3 Private inflows, net 300.3 289.9 -3.5 277.8 -4.2 294.5 6.0 308.4 4.7 Official inflows, net 11.8 6.3 -46.6 7.5 19.0 9.3 24.0 5.4 -41.9
  25. 25. Decline in Net Capital Flows 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f $US bn $US bn % change $US bn % change $US bn % change $US bn % change Capital Inflows 312.1 296.2 -5.1 285.3 -3.7 303.8 6.5 313.8 3.3 Private inflows, net 300.3 289.9 -3.5 277.8 -4.2 294.5 6.0 308.4 4.7 Official inflows, net 11.8 6.3 -46.6 7.5 19.0 9.3 24.0 5.4 -41.9
  26. 26. Decline in Net Capital Flows 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f $US bn $US bn % change $US bn % change $US bn % change $US bn % change Capital Inflows 312.1 296.2 -5.1 285.3 -3.7 303.8 6.5 313.8 3.3 Private inflows, net 300.3 289.9 -3.5 277.8 -4.2 294.5 6.0 308.4 4.7 Official inflows, net 11.8 6.3 -46.6 7.5 19.0 9.3 24.0 5.4 -41.9
  27. 27. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Derek Chen World Bank January 2014 Latin America & Caribbean www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

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