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Latin America & Caribbean Regional Outlook June 2013

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http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

After a sharp recovery from the global economic crisis in 2010, when regional output expanded by 6 percent, growth in the Latin America and the Caribbean decelerated markedly, to an estimated 3 percent by 2012. Supply side constraints have become apparent in some of the larger economies, where output was near or above potential during the recovery phase, and which contributed to relatively high inflation and deterioration of current account balances. Despite a sharp deceleration in growth, regional output is only now in line with potential GDP.

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Latin America & Caribbean Regional Outlook June 2013

  1. 1. 1Cristina SavescuWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsLatin America & theCaribbeanRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  2. 2. Growth in the Latin America and the Caribbeanregion is expected to firm only marginally this yearto 3.3 percent from 3.0 percent in 2012.2
  3. 3. Growth in the Latin America and the Caribbeanregion is expected to firm only marginally this yearto 3.3 percent from 3.0 percent in 2012.3
  4. 4. 012345672003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Latin America and the Caribbean4GDP growth, percentSource: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.Growth in the region will accelerateonly marginally through 2015
  5. 5. 012345672003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Latin America and the Caribbean5GDP growth, percentSource: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.5.3%Growth in the region will accelerateonly marginally through 2015
  6. 6. 012345672003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Latin America and the Caribbean6GDP growth, percentSource: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.5.3%Growth in the region will accelerateonly marginally through 2015
  7. 7. 012345672003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015South America7GDP growth, percentSource: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.Latin America and the CaribbeanGrowth in the region will accelerateonly marginally through 2015
  8. 8. 012345672003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015South America8GDP growth, percentSource: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.Latin America and the CaribbeanDeveloping Central and North AmericaGrowth in the region will accelerateonly marginally through 2015
  9. 9. 012345672003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015South AmericaGrowth in the region will accelerateonly marginally through 20159GDP growth, percentSource: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.Latin America and the CaribbeanThe CaribbeanDeveloping Central and North America
  10. 10. Growth has remained subdueddespite accommodative macropolicies.
  11. 11. 024681012141630-Aug-08 30-Aug-09 30-Aug-10 30-Aug-11 30-Aug-12MexicoColombiaChilePeruMonetary policies remain accommodativeshort-term policy interest rates, percentSour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam.
  12. 12. 024681012141630-Aug-08 30-Aug-09 30-Aug-10 30-Aug-11 30-Aug-12MexicoColombiaChilePeruMonetary policies remain accommodativeshort-term policy interest rates, percentSour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam.Brazil
  13. 13. ArgentinaAntigua andBarbudaBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominicaDominican Rep.EcuadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasHaitiJamaicaSt. LuciaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaPeruEl Salvador SurinameUruguaySt. Vincent andGrenadinesVenezuela-4.5-3.5-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.54.5-4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage pointsSize of outputgap (2012)Gap closing from below OverheatingGap closing from aboveCrashing
  14. 14. ArgentinaAntigua andBarbudaBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominicaDominican Rep.EcuadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasHaitiJamaicaSt. LuciaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaPeruEl Salvador SurinameUruguaySt. Vincent andGrenadinesVenezuela-4.5-3.5-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.54.5-4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage pointsSize of outputgap (2012)Gap closing from below OverheatingGap closing from aboveCrashing
  15. 15. ArgentinaAntigua andBarbudaBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominicaDominican Rep.EcuadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasHaitiJamaicaSt. LuciaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaPeruEl Salvador SurinameUruguaySt. Vincent andGrenadinesVenezuela-4.5-3.5-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.54.5-4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage pointsSize of outputgap (2012)Gap closing from below OverheatingGap closing from aboveCrashing
  16. 16. ArgentinaAntigua andBarbudaBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominicaDominican Rep.EcuadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasHaitiJamaicaSt. LuciaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaPeruEl Salvador SurinameUruguaySt. Vincent andGrenadinesVenezuela-4.5-3.5-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.54.5-4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage pointsSize of outputgap (2012)Gap closing from below OverheatingGap closing from aboveCrashing
  17. 17. Developments in the first quarter of2013 underscore some of the downsiderisks to the outlook
  18. 18. -4-2024681012Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Mexico PeruQ1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Sour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam.A relatively weak start of the year in Latin America andCaribbeanGDP, q/q per cent annual i zed change, sa
  19. 19. -4-2024681012Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Mexico PeruQ1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Sour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam.A relatively weak start of the year in Latin America andCaribbeanGDP, q/q per cent annual i zed change, sa
  20. 20. Large fluctuations of exportprices represent a major risk tooutlook for commodityexporters.
  21. 21. Commodity exporters at riskif commodity prices decline more quickly-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2Latin America &CaribbeanOil exporters Oil importersOil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014Impact, % of GDPSource: World Bank.
  22. 22. Commodity exporters at riskif commodity prices decline more quickly-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2Latin America &CaribbeanOil exporters Oil importersOil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014Impact, % of GDPSource: World Bank.
  23. 23. Commodity exporters at riskif commodity prices decline more quickly-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2Latin America &CaribbeanOil exporters Oil importersOil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014Impact, % of GDPSource: World Bank.
  24. 24. Commodity exporters at riskif commodity prices decline more quickly-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2Latin America &CaribbeanOil exporters Oil importersOil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014Impact, % of GDP-1.8-1.2-0.60Latin America &CaribbeanCaribbean metalexportersMetals prices decline by 20% by mid 2014Impact, % of GDPSource: World Bank.
  25. 25. Commodity exporters at riskif commodity prices decline more quickly-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2Latin America &CaribbeanOil exporters Oil importersOil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014Impact, % of GDP-1.8-1.2-0.60Latin America &CaribbeanCaribbean metalexportersMetals prices decline by 20% by mid 2014Impact, % of GDPSource: World Bank.
  26. 26. Commodity exporters at riskif commodity prices decline more quickly-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2Latin America &CaribbeanOil exporters Oil importersOil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014Impact, % of GDP-1.8-1.2-0.60Latin America &CaribbeanCaribbean metalexportersMetals prices decline by 20% by mid 2014Impact, % of GDPSource: World Bank.
  27. 27. 27Cristina SavescuWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsLatin America & theCaribbeanRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

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