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Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook, Jan 2014

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Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Sub-Saharan Africa Gerard Kambou World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 4.7% 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 4.7% 5.0 4.0 3.5% 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Strong domestic demand was the main driver of growth % 7.0 Next exports Domestic demand Real GDP 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 2010 Source: World Bank 2011 2012 2013
Strong domestic demand was the main driver of growth % 7.0 Next exports Domestic demand Real GDP 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 2010 Source: World Bank 2011 2012 2013
Fiscal deficits deteriorated further in 2013 % Overall fiscal deficit as a share of GDP 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 2011 2012 2013e 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank Oil importers Oil exporters
Fiscal deficits deteriorated further in 2013 % Overall fiscal deficit as a share of GDP 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 2011 2012 2013e 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank Oil importers Oil exporters
Fiscal deficits deteriorated further in 2013 % Overall fiscal deficit as a share of GDP %, y/y 18 Annual headline inflation 4.0 16 3.0 14 2.0 1.0 2011 2012 12 2013e 10 0.0 8 -1.0 6 -2.0 4 -3.0 -4.0 2 -5.0 0 Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank Oil importers Oil exporters Oil exportes Oil importers Sub-Saharan Africa Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
However, reflecting lower food prices, inflation decelerated in 2013.
Robust domestic demand, relatively resilient FDI flows and slower pace of inflation are expected to continue to support growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the medium term.
Regional GDP growth % 7.0 Real GDP growth, 2014-16 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 Source: World Bank 2015 2016
Regional GDP growth % 7.0 Real GDP growth, 2014-16 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 6.0 5.3% 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 Source: World Bank 2015 2016
Regional GDP growth % 7.0 Real GDP growth, 2014-16 Sub-Saharan Africa 6.0 Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 5.4% 5.3% 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 Source: World Bank 2015 2016
Regional GDP growth % 7.0 Real GDP growth, 2014-16 Sub-Saharan Africa 6.0 5.4% 5.3% Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 5.5% 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 Source: World Bank 2015 2016
The region’s growth prospects are subject to important downside risks.
Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices
Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices • Effects from tightening of monetary conditions as U.S. Federal reserve begins to taper asset
Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks Domestic risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices • Second round effects from tightening of monetary conditions as U.S. Federal • Fiscal deficits reserve begins to taper asset
Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks Domestic risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices • Second round effects from tightening of monetary conditions as U.S. Federal • Fiscal deficits • Political unrest reserve begins to taper asset
Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks Domestic risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices • Second round effects from tightening of monetary conditions as U.S. Federal • Fiscal deficits • Political unrest • Adverse weather conditions reserve begins to taper asset
Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Sub-Saharan Africa Gerard Kambou World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

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Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook, Jan 2014

  • 1. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Sub-Saharan Africa Gerard Kambou World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  • 2. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 3. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 4.7% 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 4. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 4.7% 5.0 4.0 3.5% 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 5. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 6. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 7. Strong domestic demand was the main driver of growth % 7.0 Next exports Domestic demand Real GDP 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 2010 Source: World Bank 2011 2012 2013
  • 8. Strong domestic demand was the main driver of growth % 7.0 Next exports Domestic demand Real GDP 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 2010 Source: World Bank 2011 2012 2013
  • 9. Fiscal deficits deteriorated further in 2013 % Overall fiscal deficit as a share of GDP 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 2011 2012 2013e 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank Oil importers Oil exporters
  • 10. Fiscal deficits deteriorated further in 2013 % Overall fiscal deficit as a share of GDP 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 2011 2012 2013e 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank Oil importers Oil exporters
  • 11. Fiscal deficits deteriorated further in 2013 % Overall fiscal deficit as a share of GDP %, y/y 18 Annual headline inflation 4.0 16 3.0 14 2.0 1.0 2011 2012 12 2013e 10 0.0 8 -1.0 6 -2.0 4 -3.0 -4.0 2 -5.0 0 Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank Oil importers Oil exporters Oil exportes Oil importers Sub-Saharan Africa Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
  • 12. However, reflecting lower food prices, inflation decelerated in 2013.
  • 13. Robust domestic demand, relatively resilient FDI flows and slower pace of inflation are expected to continue to support growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the medium term.
  • 14. Regional GDP growth % 7.0 Real GDP growth, 2014-16 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 Source: World Bank 2015 2016
  • 15. Regional GDP growth % 7.0 Real GDP growth, 2014-16 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 6.0 5.3% 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 Source: World Bank 2015 2016
  • 16. Regional GDP growth % 7.0 Real GDP growth, 2014-16 Sub-Saharan Africa 6.0 Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 5.4% 5.3% 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 Source: World Bank 2015 2016
  • 17. Regional GDP growth % 7.0 Real GDP growth, 2014-16 Sub-Saharan Africa 6.0 5.4% 5.3% Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 5.5% 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 Source: World Bank 2015 2016
  • 18. The region’s growth prospects are subject to important downside risks.
  • 19. Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices
  • 20. Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices • Effects from tightening of monetary conditions as U.S. Federal reserve begins to taper asset
  • 21. Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks Domestic risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices • Second round effects from tightening of monetary conditions as U.S. Federal • Fiscal deficits reserve begins to taper asset
  • 22. Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks Domestic risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices • Second round effects from tightening of monetary conditions as U.S. Federal • Fiscal deficits • Political unrest reserve begins to taper asset
  • 23. Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks Domestic risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices • Second round effects from tightening of monetary conditions as U.S. Federal • Fiscal deficits • Political unrest • Adverse weather conditions reserve begins to taper asset
  • 24. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Sub-Saharan Africa Gerard Kambou World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook