Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook, Jan 2014

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Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook, Jan 2014

  1. 1. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Sub-Saharan Africa Gerard Kambou World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  2. 2. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  3. 3. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 4.7% 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  4. 4. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 4.7% 5.0 4.0 3.5% 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  5. 5. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  6. 6. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 % Real GDP growth 9.0 Developing countries excl. China 8.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 Source: World Bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  7. 7. Strong domestic demand was the main driver of growth % 7.0 Next exports Domestic demand Real GDP 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 2010 Source: World Bank 2011 2012 2013
  8. 8. Strong domestic demand was the main driver of growth % 7.0 Next exports Domestic demand Real GDP 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 2010 Source: World Bank 2011 2012 2013
  9. 9. Fiscal deficits deteriorated further in 2013 % Overall fiscal deficit as a share of GDP 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 2011 2012 2013e 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank Oil importers Oil exporters
  10. 10. Fiscal deficits deteriorated further in 2013 % Overall fiscal deficit as a share of GDP 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 2011 2012 2013e 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank Oil importers Oil exporters
  11. 11. Fiscal deficits deteriorated further in 2013 % Overall fiscal deficit as a share of GDP %, y/y 18 Annual headline inflation 4.0 16 3.0 14 2.0 1.0 2011 2012 12 2013e 10 0.0 8 -1.0 6 -2.0 4 -3.0 -4.0 2 -5.0 0 Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank Oil importers Oil exporters Oil exportes Oil importers Sub-Saharan Africa Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
  12. 12. However, reflecting lower food prices, inflation decelerated in 2013.
  13. 13. Robust domestic demand, relatively resilient FDI flows and slower pace of inflation are expected to continue to support growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the medium term.
  14. 14. Regional GDP growth % 7.0 Real GDP growth, 2014-16 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 Source: World Bank 2015 2016
  15. 15. Regional GDP growth % 7.0 Real GDP growth, 2014-16 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 6.0 5.3% 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 Source: World Bank 2015 2016
  16. 16. Regional GDP growth % 7.0 Real GDP growth, 2014-16 Sub-Saharan Africa 6.0 Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 5.4% 5.3% 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 Source: World Bank 2015 2016
  17. 17. Regional GDP growth % 7.0 Real GDP growth, 2014-16 Sub-Saharan Africa 6.0 5.4% 5.3% Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa 5.5% 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 Source: World Bank 2015 2016
  18. 18. The region’s growth prospects are subject to important downside risks.
  19. 19. Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices
  20. 20. Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices • Effects from tightening of monetary conditions as U.S. Federal reserve begins to taper asset
  21. 21. Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks Domestic risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices • Second round effects from tightening of monetary conditions as U.S. Federal • Fiscal deficits reserve begins to taper asset
  22. 22. Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks Domestic risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices • Second round effects from tightening of monetary conditions as U.S. Federal • Fiscal deficits • Political unrest reserve begins to taper asset
  23. 23. Risks and Vulnerabilities External risks Domestic risks • Protracted decline in commodity prices • Second round effects from tightening of monetary conditions as U.S. Federal • Fiscal deficits • Political unrest • Adverse weather conditions reserve begins to taper asset
  24. 24. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Sub-Saharan Africa Gerard Kambou World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

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