Middle East and North Africa Outlook, Jan 2014

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  • Project path: R:\GMT\GEP\GEP14a\Charts\GEP14a.cwpChartset name: MNAChart name: 01 MOM industrial productionChart internal id: CTMZFOWNKNJX
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  • Middle East and North Africa Outlook, Jan 2014

    1. 1. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Damir Cosic World Bank January 2014 Middle East & North Africa www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
    2. 2. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar 100 80 60 40 20 Tunisia 0 -20 Jordan -40 Egypt, Arab Rep. -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    3. 3. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar 100 80 60 40 20 Tunisia 0 -20 Jordan -40 Egypt, Arab Rep. -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    4. 4. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar 100 80 60 40 20 Tunisia 0 -20 Jordan -40 Egypt, Arab Rep. -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    5. 5. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar 100 80 60 40 20 Tunisia 0 -20 Jordan -40 Egypt, Arab Rep. -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    6. 6. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar 100 80 60 40 20 Tunisia 0 -20 Jordan -40 Egypt, Arab Rep. -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    7. 7. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar 100 80 60 40 20 Tunisia 0 -20 Jordan -40 Egypt, Arab Rep. -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 - 44%
    8. 8. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Egypt’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey crossed into positive territory in November 2013 for the first time in 13 months, signaling an improvement in manufacturing output going forward.
    9. 9. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed. Growth, 3m/3m, saar 80 60 Exports 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    10. 10. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed. Growth, 3m/3m, saar 80 60 Exports 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    11. 11. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed. Growth, 3m/3m, saar 80 60 Exports 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    12. 12. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed. Growth, 3m/3m, saar 80 60 Exports 40 20 0 -20 -40 Tourist Arrivals -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    13. 13. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed. Growth, 3m/3m, saar 80 60 Exports 40 20 0 -20 -40 Tourist Arrivals -60 - 57% -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    14. 14. Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters mb/d 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    15. 15. Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters mb/d 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.3 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    16. 16. Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters mb/d 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.5 8.0 7.3 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    17. 17. Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters mb/d 10.0 10.5 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.5 8.0 7.3 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
    18. 18. External imbalances have worsened in the region Current account balance as a share of GDP Forecast 8 6 4 Oil Exporters 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Developing MENA Oil Importers -8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
    19. 19. External imbalances have worsened in the region Current account balance as a share of GDP Forecast 8 6 4 Oil Exporters 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Developing MENA Oil Importers -8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
    20. 20. External imbalances have worsened in the region Current account balance as a share of GDP Forecast 8 6 4 Oil Exporters 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Developing MENA Oil Importers -8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
    21. 21. Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board Fiscal balances as a share of GDP 5 Forecast Oil Exporters 0 -5 Developing MENA -10 Oil Importers -15 -20 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
    22. 22. Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board Fiscal balances as a share of GDP 5 Forecast Oil Exporters 0 -5 Developing MENA -10 Oil Importers -15 -20 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
    23. 23. Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks % change 6 Forecast 5 4 3 Oil Importers 2 Developing MENA 1 0 -1 -2 Oil Exporters -3 -4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
    24. 24. Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks % change 6 Forecast 5 4 3 Oil Importers 2.8% 2 Developing MENA 1 0 -1 -2 Oil Exporters -3 -4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
    25. 25. Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks % change 6 Forecast 5 4 3 Oil Importers 3.6% 2 Developing MENA 1 0 -1 -2 Oil Exporters -3 -4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
    26. 26. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Damir Cosic World Bank January 2014 Middle East & North Africa www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

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