Cambodia Poverty Assessment - Feb 2014

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  • Note 1: The 1994 original poverty estimate was adjusted to take into consideration several areas not sampled due to ongoing conflictsNote 2: for more detail of the other household surveys between 1995 and 2003, read WB poverty assessment : Socio-Economic Surveys, pages 5-6
  • Also in 2013 the World Bank published poverty results covering the same years
  • With gaps between regions becoming smaller
  • Food component based in minimum calorie intakeNon-food component based on Engels coefficient obtained from households in the survey
  • The figure include those households between the 20 and 50 percentile according to consumption. Most of them were poor in 2004 and not poor in 2011Toilet connected to sewerage of septic tank and Electricity for light excluding batteries
  • The figure include those households between the 20 and 50 percentile according to consumption. Most of them were poor in 2004 and not poor in 2011Households had many other assets. The ones chosen here are very well measured and provide a good picture of the improvement
  • Note: different to the official net enrollment rates the ones presented here are estimated for each year individually. Improvement in Primary are in average 18 percentage points per year (30.6% to 48.8%) and average of 12 percentage points for secondary (from 8.1% to 20.0%)
  • Other factors were not identified but can include remittances, public and private transfers, etc.
  • In rural areas in Cambodia, between 2003-2010, nearly 8000 village roads funded by the commune sangkat fund enabled the poorest households to take advantage of favorable economic conditions, to access to input and output markets, lowering costs and enhancing revenue. It also enabled the poor to access other non-farm opportunities. The poorest two quintiles increased production the most (70%) compared with the wealthiest quintile (35%).Travel indicators: The number of motorbikes per household in the bottom quintile increased by 400%, and the number of motorbikes per HH in the second quintile by over 300% during the period 2004-2010. The total increase in motorbikes for all quintiles is 200%. This is not only an indicator of increased HH incomes, but of the increased use of local commune roads.
  • Note this are numbers up to 2011 and changes are expected in later years, especially in Phnom Penh.Urban rural definition does not change often and if new poor are in areas around cities they might be classified as rural because historical classification
  • This are the implications from this study that are a subset of what can be included in a national strategy as the NSDP or the rectangular strategy
  • The World Bank is engaged on a extensive study looking into the agricultural situation and recommendations for Cambodia
  • Cambodia Poverty Assessment - Feb 2014

    1. 1. Where have all the poor gone? Cambodia Poverty Assessment 2013 February 20, 2014 Phnom Penh, Cambodia Carlos Sobrado, Senior Poverty Economist
    2. 2. 2 1. Progress on poverty reduction 2. Remaining challenges 3. Policy recommendations What we will talk about…
    3. 3. 3 Official poverty estimates in Cambodia o In 1994, poverty in Cambodia was estimated for the first time o Several other estimates were developed after 1994, but the results were difficult to compare o Starting in 2004 the National Institute of Statistics adopted a more standardized field work for the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey
    4. 4. 4 And in 2013, with an updated methodology, poverty was estimated for each year 53.2% 50.1% 38.8% 23.9% 22.1% 20.5% 18.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PovertyRate p
    5. 5. 5 Reductions reported everywhere; with highest poverty in rural areas 15.8% 2.7% 4.3% 3.8% 39.7% 35.0% 12.7% 9.1% 59.0% 57.9% 27.5% 22.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2004 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Phnom Penh Other Urban Rural p
    6. 6. 6 Methodology o Measures poverty by comparing per capita consumption to a poverty line o The poverty line is the cost of a food basket with a minimum amount of calories, plus an allowance for non-food consumption o Estimates based on 2009 data – applied to all years o Based on a sample (not a census)
    7. 7. 7 For those households that escaped poverty … housing conditions improved 33.9% 3.6% 7.1% 52.9% 21.8% 28.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2004 2011
    8. 8. 8 those escaping poverty … also acquired more assets 18.9% 2.2% 41.4% 17.1% 54.9% 62.5% 62.7% 63.2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Motorcycle Mobile phone Television Suitcases 2004 2011
    9. 9. 9 In education, net enrollment improved for every schooling year 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 Year in primary Year in secondary %studentsatappropriate grade Net enrollment rate by year 2004 Net 2011 Net
    10. 10. 10 Gender gap in education decreases and disappears over time -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1919 1924 1929 1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 Birth year Female Male GAP School age
    11. 11. 11 Cambodia is on target for the under-five- mortality MDG goal 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2000 2005 2010 Poorest Wealthie st Deathsper1,000children
    12. 12. What are the reasons behind this impressive reduction in poverty?
    13. 13. 13 In 2004, a large group were just below the poverty line 2004 Poor 2011 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Population% Consumption in Per Capita 2009 Phnom Pen Riels/day (000) Poverty Line = CR 5,326 in 2009
    14. 14. 14 By 2011, they were no longer poor They moved just above the poverty line 2004 2011 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Population% Consumption in Per Capita 2009 Phnom Pen Riels/day (000) Poverty Line = CR 5,326 in 2009 prices 2011 Poor
    15. 15. 15 The most important drivers of poverty reduction were increases in rice prices and rice production Increased rice prices & rice production account for 47% of the poverty reduction Key drivers of poverty reduction 2004- 2011
    16. 16. 16 Pro-poor growth helped reduce poverty in 2008, 2010, 2011 21 19 21 21 22 23 23 33 37 32 32 30 28 28 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2004 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Share prosperity (bottom 40%) GINI * 100
    17. 17. 17 Other key factors were: … a liberal, undistorted agriculture market For example, from 2004 to 2009 • International rice prices: ↑134% • Local rice prices in Cambodia: ↑119%
    18. 18. 18 … Government policies on infrastructure
    19. 19. 19 o 8,000 village roads helped farmers get rice to local markets. o And the roads were increasingly used by the poorest. Poor households with motorbikes increased four times - from 7% to 29% …and local infrastructure development funded by communes met local needs
    20. 20. 20 o Poverty decreased from 53.2% (2004) to 20.5% (2011) o Reflected in improvements in quality of housing conditions, assets education and health. o This reduction in poverty came about because: o Many poor moved just above the poverty line o Rice price and production o Pro-poor growth o Free rice market price o RGC investments in rural infrastructure. Progress in reducing poverty - in a few words
    21. 21. Despite the impressive reduction in poverty, challenges remain...
    22. 22. 22 The poor are less but remain concentrated in rural areas: 9 out of 10 6.8 million poor in 2004 Other Urban 0.6 Phnom Penh 0.2 million Rural 6.2 million Other Urban 0.2 million Phnom Penh 0.1 million Rural 2.7 million 3.0 million poor in 2011
    23. 23. 23 There are fewer poor, but more vulnerable people 4.6 8.1 2004 2011 Near poor people (million) Near poor are those living above $1.15 per day , but below $2.30 per day 6.9 3.0 2004 2011 Poor people (million) Poor are those living below $1.15 per day (poverty line)
    24. 24. 24 A small shock can double poverty 20.5% 41.0% 2011 2011 with shock Poverty rate - =
    25. 25. 25 Further increases in rice prices are unlikely, at least at the same pace
    26. 26. 26 Overage in primary is a major problem and increases dropout rates Students entering first grade late, limits the learning potential and increases dropout rates: o 40% of students are entering first grade at age 8 (two years later than recommended) o 40% of students are finishing primary at 15 years old (3.1 years later than recommended)
    27. 27. 27 Enrollment differences between upper and lower quintiles 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 %of15-20yearsoldwith completedschoolyearin2011 School year completed Lowest quintile Highest quintile
    28. 28. 28 After some progress child malnutrition rates were relatively unchanged in 2005- 2010 2000 2000 2005 20052010 2010 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Stunted Underweight
    29. 29. 29 o While HEF is a key instrument to insure access to health services by the poor, some challenges remain: o Increase coverage: 25% poor households do not have a HEF card o Increase use: among the poor seeking treatment in hospitals, 60% do not use the HEF cards o The poor seek medical advice 55% of the time from informal providers where diagnosis and treatment are unreliable. Under use of Health Equity Funds (HEF)
    30. 30. 30 o There are less poor, but more vulnerable households o Relatively small shocks could double poverty rates o Another spike in rice price unlikely o Too many overage students o Low enrollment rates of poor children Remaining challenges … In a few words
    31. 31. Possible implications on policies and programs to reduce poverty and vulnerability
    32. 32. 32 o For Example through: o Improved farmers skills by means of formal education and better extension services o Improved access to improved seeds o Promote water user associations Enhance agriculture profitability and diversification
    33. 33. 33 o Rationalize, connect and maintain roads and other infrastructure o More funds for commune-driven participatory development to better meet local needs Continue to improve access to basic rural infrastructure and services
    34. 34. 34 But we also need to look beyond agriculture Increase jobs in manufacturing by addressing the 3 key bottlenecks: o Reduce electricity cost and increase reliability by implementing a strategic and competitive roll out plan with Public-Private-Part. o Enhance business environment through reduced informal payments and burdensome regulations o Reduce high transport costs and unreliable delivery by implementing a connectivity strategy
    35. 35. 35 Investing in education o Expand early childhood education to promote entry to Grade 1 at the right age o Strengthen the quality of schooling in early grades to reduce repetition in primary o Provide targeted scholarships and school feeding in primary and secondary schools, especially for poor children, to improve enrollment and reduce drop-out rates.
    36. 36. 36 o Expand provision of health equity card o Increase use of health equity card to encourage health services at public hospitals o Tighter control on informal services to improve medical treatments Improve access to public health services
    37. 37. 37 Integrated programs to tackle child malnutrition o Food fortification and micronutrients o Improve feeding practice o Reduce open defecation o Promote hygiene practices
    38. 38. 38 Implement sub-national social accountability policy to improve performance of local service providers o Establish systematic citizen/user feedback and monitoring o Display performance and budget information for communes, schools and health centers Strengthen accountability to improve service delivery
    39. 39. 39 Implement National Social Protection Strategy Clarify institutional responsibilities and provide support for agencies implementing the NSPS Encourage salaried workers to enroll in national security system
    40. 40. 40 o Agriculture Extension services, seeds and participation on infrastructure projects o Manufacturing Lower electric and transport cost and reduce informal payments and regulations o Education Expand early childhood education, promote enrollment of the poor Recommendations In a few words
    41. 41. 41 o Health Integrated approach to fight malnutrition, improved understanding of low HEF utilization, and strengthen regulation on informal markets o Social Protection Increased support to coordinating agency, greater participation of salaried workers in national security system o Increase accountability of all service providers Recommendations In a few words
    42. 42. Thank you very much for your attention Thank you very much for your attention

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