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East Asia and Pacific Regional Outlook

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http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

Growth in the East Asia & the Pacific region slowed to 7.5 percent in 2012, which nevertheless represented 40 percent of global growth. The slowdown was due to slower growth in China, which has started to shift away its economy from excessive reliance on investment and net exports.

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East Asia and Pacific Regional Outlook

  1. 1. 1Ekaterine VashakmadzeWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsEast Asia & PacificRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  2. 2. Growth in East Asia and the Pacific region slowedto 7.5 percent in 2012.This nevertheless represented 40 percent of globalgrowth.
  3. 3. Growth in East Asia and the Pacific region slowedto 7.5 percent in 2012.This nevertheless represented 40 percent of globalgrowth.
  4. 4. Growth in East Asia and the Pacific region slowedto 7.5 percent in 2012.This nevertheless represented 40 percent of globalgrowth.
  5. 5. GrowthSource: World Bank; DataStream-7-238131811Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1ASEAN 4 China Developing excl. EAP World excl. EAPGDP, % change, quarter-over-quarter, saar
  6. 6. GrowthSource: World Bank; DataStream-7-238131811Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1ASEAN 4 China Developing excl. EAP World excl. EAPGDP, % change, quarter-over-quarter, saar
  7. 7. GrowthSource: World Bank; DataStream-7-238131811Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1ASEAN 4 China Developing excl. EAP World excl. EAPGDP, % change, quarter-over-quarter, saar
  8. 8. Strong regional growth despite weak externaldemand environment was achieved due to• strong domestic demand boosting measuresincluding fiscal stimulus and,
  9. 9. Strong regional growth despite weak externaldemand environment was achieved due to• strong domestic demand boosting measuresincluding fiscal stimulus and,• monetary easing with low interest rates contributingto rapid credit expansion across the region.
  10. 10. Loose policiesSource: World Bank; IMF, IFS.-100102030405007M03 08M03 09M03 10M03 11M03 12M03 13M3China Indonesia MalaysiaPhilippines Thailand VietnamReal credit growth, % change, year-over-year20%
  11. 11. Loose policiesSource: World Bank; IMF, IFS.-100102030405007M03 08M03 09M03 10M03 11M03 12M03 13M3China Indonesia MalaysiaPhilippines Thailand VietnamReal credit growth, % change, year-over-year20%15%
  12. 12. Loose policiesSource: World Bank; IMF, IFS.-100102030405007M03 08M03 09M03 10M03 11M03 12M03 13M3China Indonesia MalaysiaPhilippines Thailand VietnamReal credit growth, % change, year-over-year20%15%10%
  13. 13. Loose policiesSource: World Bank; IMF, IFS.-100102030405007M03 08M03 09M03 10M03 11M03 12M03 13M3China Indonesia MalaysiaPhilippines Thailand VietnamReal credit growth, % change, year-over-year20%15%10%10%
  14. 14. Growth in the region is projected toslow to 7.3 percent in 2013.
  15. 15. Growth in the region is projected toslow to 7.3 percent in 2013.
  16. 16. Growth in the region is projected toslow to 7.3 percent in 2013.Growth outlook also mirrors
  17. 17. Growth in the region is projected toslow to 7.3 percent in 2013.Growth outlook also mirrors• the changing landscape for trade andindustrial production related to yendepreciation,
  18. 18. Growth in the region is projected toslow to 7.3 percent in 2013.Growth outlook also mirrors• the changing landscape for trade andindustrial production related to yendepreciation,• lower commodity prices and,
  19. 19. Growth in the region is projected toslow to 7.3 percent in 2013.Growth outlook also mirrors• the changing landscape for trade andindustrial production related to yendepreciation,• lower commodity prices and,• capacity constraints.
  20. 20. Growth outlook in 2013Source: World Bank; DataStream.-45-35-25-15-55152535455508Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1Malaysia Thailand Indonesia China PhilippinesGDP growth, q/q , saar
  21. 21. Growth outlook in 2013Source: World Bank; DataStream.-45-35-25-15-55152535455508Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1Malaysia Thailand Indonesia China PhilippinesGDP growth, q/q , saar
  22. 22. • The regional growth is projected to pick up to 7.5percent in 2014 and 2015 supported by gradualstrengthening of global demand.• The regional outlook is subject to internal risksassociated with a sharp reduction in Chineseinvestment and quantitative easing in Japan.
  23. 23. Loose policies contributed to risingdebt levelsSource: World Bank; IMF; BIS.0 50 100 150 200MalaysiaChinaThailandIndonesiaGeneral GovernmentNon-Financial corporationsHHShare of GDP
  24. 24. Loose policies contributed to risingdebt levelsPrice pressures in selectedcountries of the regionSource: World Bank; IMF; BIS. Source: World Bank; DataStream.0 50 100 150 200MalaysiaChinaThailandIndonesiaGeneral GovernmentNon-Financial corporationsHHShare of GDP0246810121411M0511M0811M1112M0212M0512M0812M1113M0213M05East Asia (excludes China)ChinaIndonesiaCPI, % change, 3m/3m, saar
  25. 25. With increasing number of countriesfacing capacity constraints, regionalpolicies could benefit from becomingless accommodative.
  26. 26. Policy recommendationsSource: World Bank; DataStream.-50-40-30-20-100102030405012M06 12M08 12M10 12M12 13M02 2013M04Japan ChinaEast Asia excl. China IndonesiaPhilippinesPercentage change, 3m/3m, saar
  27. 27. 27Ekaterine VashakmadzeWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsEast Asia & PacificRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

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