Europe & Central Asia Outlook, Jan 2014

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Europe & Central Asia Outlook, Jan 2014

  1. 1. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Europe & Central Asia Region Mizuho Kida World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  2. 2. Growth in the ECA region has strengthened in 2013 to 3.4% up from 2% in 2012.
  3. 3. Growth in the Europe & Central Asia region has strengthened in 2013 to 3.4% up from 2% in 2012.
  4. 4. Growth strengthened in the region supported by increases in external demand Quarterly GDP (% change, sa)
  5. 5. Growth strengthened in the region supported by increases in external demand Quarterly GDP (% change, sa) Export volume (% change, 3m/3m, sa)
  6. 6. Growth strengthened in the region supported by increases in external demand Quarterly GDP (% change, sa) Export volume (% change, 3m/3m, sa)
  7. 7. Among the Commonwealth of Independent States, growth performance has been mixed.
  8. 8. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  9. 9. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  10. 10. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  11. 11. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  12. 12. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  13. 13. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  14. 14. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  15. 15. Among the CIS countries, strong remittance inflows partially mitigated terms of trade shocks Remittances (%GDP, 2013) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  16. 16. Capital inflows to the region began strong, but weakened after the mid-year tapering announcement and ensuing volatility.
  17. 17. Capital inflows to the region began strong, but weakened after the mid-year tapering announcement and ensuing volatility 16,000 Gross Capital Flows to ECA (US$ mn) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 I II III 2009 IV I II III 2010 IV I II III 2011 IV I II III 2012 IV I II III 2013 IV
  18. 18. Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of nonperforming loans 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
  19. 19. Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of nonperforming loans 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
  20. 20. Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of nonperforming loans 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
  21. 21. Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of nonperforming loans 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
  22. 22. Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of nonperforming loans 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
  23. 23. Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of nonperforming loans 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
  24. 24. Growth outlook for the region is that of sustained gradual acceleration, from 3.4% in 2013 to 3.8% by 2016.
  25. 25. Growth outlook for the region is that of sustained gradual acceleration, from 3.4% in 2013 to 3.8% by 2016.
  26. 26. Growth outlook for the region is that of sustained gradual acceleration, from 3.4% in 2013 to 3.8% by 2016.
  27. 27. Growth outlook for the region critically depends on recoveries in Europe and Russia Exports to the Euro Area (percent of total exports, 2012) -20 Hungary Albania Romania Bosnia and… Kosovo Bulgaria Croatia Serbia, Rep. of Macedonia, FYR Kazakhstan Moldova Azerbaijan Armenia Turkey Belarus Montenegro, Rep. Ukraine Georgia Tajikistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyz Republic Exports to Russia (percent of total exports, 2012) 30 80 0 Belarus Ukraine Moldova Armenia Lithuania Latvia Kazakhstan Serbia, Rep. of Poland Slovenia Turkey Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Bulgaria Romania Macedonia, FYR Bosnia and… Albania 10 20 30 40
  28. 28. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Mizuho Kida World Bank January 2014 Europe & Central Asia Region www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

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