2. «The founding father of the Mobility Academy»
Platform for future-oriented
debates
Think Tank
Further Education
„Better Mobility with Less
Risks“
3. «Fields and parameters impacting on transport»
Local/regional National
European policy policies
Politics Policies Demography
Economics
Investments
Supply strategies Economic, spatial, and
Mobility services demographic development
Internalisation of
external costs
Power Train
Society and Technology,
lifestyles innovations
Work
Mobility View Energy Traffic system
supply management
Climate Change Following IFMO 2007
5. „How good is transport in Switzerland?“
Regular Rankings
In partnership with
other „Lead Agencies“
Commuicated via
different electronic
formats (blogs,
podcasts, etc.)
6. How successful have we been in reducing road accidents?
For CH: Minus 50%
every 10 years:
– 2010: 300
– 2020: 150
– 2030: 75
– 2040: 38
– 2050: 19
7. Lu Fr
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
xe an
m ce
bo
Be urg
lg
Po ium
Capitols
Sw rt
itz uga
er l Speeding
l
Sw and
N
Drink Driving
et ed
Divided Roads
he e
D lan
r n Ageing Society
en ds
G ma
er rk
m
an
La y
t
Au via
st
r
Sp ia
N ain
or
w
ay
Ita
Es ly
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e
Fi ce
n
Sl lan
ov d
ak
ia
Seat Belt Wearing and Seat Belt Reminders
Sl .K U
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ch un d
Re ga
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a
EU Road Safety Target: Even the good can still be better
9. Can benchmarking replace legislation?
„A non mandatory global automotive fuel
economy target of 140 gCO2/km for passenger cars
should be adopted; Such a global fuel economy target
could be used as an international benchmark to assess
progress in the fuel efficiency of the global fleet of new
motor vehicles.“
12. «The art of setting a target/developing a vision»
Measure Forecasting Backcasting
Philosophy • Justification of policies • Exploring the future
• Determinism/causal chains • Causilities/intentions
Perspective • Dominant Trends • The need to solve a problem
• Probabilities • Desired future
• Marginal Changes • Considering human choice
• Matching current trends • Strategic decisions
Approach • Extrapolation • Idenfication of likely futures
• Elasticities • Analysing the conditions
Method • Econometric Models • Partial extrapolations
• Mathematical Algorythms • Normative/dynamic models
• Delphi/Expert interviews
Example: European Example: Swedish
Road Safety target Vision Zero
Nach VIBAT 2006
13. Mobility 2030 according to the WBCSD: goals but no targets
1. Conventional emissions should not constitute a significant
public health concern
2. Limit GHG emissions down to sustainable levels
3. Significantly reduce the number of deaths and injuries
4. Reduce transport-related noise
5. Mitigate congestion
6. Narrow the “mobility opportunity divides”
7. Preserve and enhance the mobility opportunities
14. Transport by 2050: The Good Mobility Index
1. Road Safety: minus 50% every decade
2. Air pollution: zeronising conventional
emissions
3. GHG-emissions: flipping the coin – from
95% to 5%
4. Energy efficiency: 0,1kWh/km or better
5. Economic efficiency: “how many pkm/€”
6. Health: 50% of all trips below 3km human
co-powered
7. Space consumption: capping daily
distances at current levels
15. Good Mobility: The Basic Formula
Transport Volume [pkm]
GM =
GHG-Emissions [t CO2] + Deaths + Infrastructure Investment [€]
Ecological Social Economic
sustainability sustainability sustainability
16
18. GMIR – Are infrastructure costs too high in Switzerland?
19
19. GMIR – Are GHG-Emissions and deaths undervalued?
20
20. When do rankings have an impact?
• Get the scientists to agree
• Link the rankings to a target
• Paint a picture of tomorrow
• Engage society
• Involve the Champions and encourage the „Loosers“
• Identify and Confront those resposible/in charge
• Talk about it a lot
• Get the timing right
• Propose measures (legislation, technolgies etc.)
• Continue...
