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LTE Spectrum Strategies


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A global analysis of demand for spectrum for LTE by country,

Published in: Technology, Business

LTE Spectrum Strategies

  1. 1. Make better business 7/22/2011 1©Confidential
  2. 2. Click to edit Master titleLTE SpectrumstyleStrategies andForecasts to 2016Webinar Master subtitle styleClick to edit presentationJuly 21, 2011Julian BrightSenior Analyst, Networks11/09/2009
  3. 3. Introduction• Near universal commitment to LTE network launch forecasts, 2009 to 2014 and beyond LTE• Over 360 LTE network launches forecast to 2014 and beyond• BUT...widespread uncertainty about spectrum availability and band adoption• 20 FDD bands and 11 TDD already defined by 3GPP as suitable for LTE – more in the pipeline “Spectrum variety and the risk of fragmentation is the greatest challenge of all. Speed of availability of relevant spectrum is all important,” Deutsche Telekom 22/07/2011 ©Confidential 3
  4. 4. What’s at stake?• Lack of consensus throughout the value chain on the question of Manufacturers await market demand for LTE by commitments from operators frequency band Operators look to regulators and manufacturers to be able to move• Impact will slow the decision- ahead with deployments making process in the operator community and reduce the flow of investment into LTE rollouts (cycle of uncertainty) Regulators seek guidance• For scale economics to be from efforts in other markets achieved, chipset manufacturers and OEMs need to understand operator demand for LTE deployments by band With some operators choosing not to wait for others, the specter of fragmentation looms as a very real threat to hopes for major economies of scale. 22/07/2011 4 ©Confidential
  5. 5. Initial findings• The 2600MHz band remains the most popular globally for initial launches of LTE, favored by almost half of operators surveyed by Informa Telecoms & Media• The bands around 700MHz to 800MHz are expected to be the next-most-widely used for initial launches,• Up to eleven bands are expected to be used in any single region (the region with the largest number of bands is Asia-Pacific).• Band pairings will be a feature of many markets, with a lower band for coverage in rural and less populated areas, and a higher band for capacity in dense urban and urban areas, and in hotspots• There is evidence of growing support among operators for the 1800MHz band, which is regarded as providing an ideal combination of coverage and capacity.• Support for TD-LTE is growing outside major markets such as China All regions will see deployments in multiple bands. 22/07/2011 5 ©Confidential
  6. 6. Adoption of spectrum bands in European LTE network deployments 6 ©Confidential
  7. 7. Adoption of spectrum bands in North and LatinAmerican LTE network deployments 22/07/2011 7 ©Confidential
  8. 8. Adoption of spectrum bands in Asia-Pacific LTEnetwork deployments 22/07/2011 8 ©Confidential
  9. 9. Adoption of spectrum bands in South-East AsianLTE network deployments 22/07/2011 9 ©Confidential
  10. 10. Adoption of spectrum bands in Middle-East andAfrican LTE network deployments 22/07/2011 10 ©Confidential
  11. 11. Asia-Pacific, spectrum band adoption for LTE deployments 700MHz 800MHz 900MHz 1500MHz 1700MHz 1800MHz 1900MHz (TDD) 2100MHz 2300MHz (TDD) 2600MHz (FDD) 2600MHz (TDD) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 No. of operators deployingSource: Informa Telecoms & Media 11 ©Confidential
  12. 12. Japan, LTE penetration by band as a percentageof total addressable subscriptions, 2011-2016 25.0% 20.0% 1700 FDD 15.0% 2600 TDD 800 FDD 2100 FDD 10.0% 1500 FDD 900 FDD 5.0% 700 FDD 0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media 22/07/2011 12 ©Confidential
  13. 13. Popular LTE band combinations by regionSpectrum band North Latin Asia Western Eastern Africa Middle(MHz) America America Pacific Europe Europe East700+1800700+2100700+2600800+1800800+2600800+1800+2600900+18001800+26002100+26002300+2600Source: Informa Telecoms & Media 13 ©Confidential
  14. 14. LTE core bands Band FDD/TDD 700MHz FDD 800MHz FDD 900MHz FDD 1800MHz FDD 2100MHz FDD 2600MHz FDD 2300MHz TDD 2600MHz TDD Source: Informa Telecoms & Media 14 ©Confidential
  15. 15. Band complexitiesUS 700MHz band planThe division of spectrum within the core bands may have implications for product planningboth on the infrastructure and the device side. For example, the US 700MHz band is sub-divided into lower and upper bands with distinct uplink/downlink band combinationsOver time, new bands may emerge and existing bands be re-configured or even dropped.For example, outside the US, the 700MHz band may be a newly-defined band being workedon by 3GPP with a single 2 x 45 MHz FDD allocation 22/07/2011 15 ©Confidential
  16. 16. Licensing and early deployment trends2600MHz license awards to end-1Q11 Region/Country Award Date • Spectrum in the 2600MHz band has been licensed in Asia Pacific only a handful of countries, mainly in Europe and Hong Kong Jan-09 Asia Pacific Eastern Europe Armenia Nov-10 • In many cases, licensing of the digital-dividend Estonia Dec-10 bands will be subject to uncertain timescales due to Poland Sep-09 the problems of freeing up spectrum. Uzbekistan Oct-09/July-10 Latin America • Early deployments in the lower frequency bands have been concentrated in the US, where the low Colombia Jun-10 cost of using the premium 700MHz band relative to Western Europe the higher bands has suited the aggressive rollout Austria Sep-10 plans of operators such as Verizon. Denmark May-10 Finland Nov-09 • Interest in the low-to-midrange frequency bands was Germany May-10 apparent in Germany’s spectrum auctions, where Netherlands Apr-10 some operators placed a higher value on the Norway Nov-07 spectrum bands around 800MHz than on those Sweden May-08 around 2600MHz Source: Informa Telecoms & Media 16 ©Confidential
  17. 17. Growing support for TD-LTE• Major markets China and India. Interest from TD-LTE networks launching in Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Taiwan 17 countries by end-2014 among others. Region Country TDD band Launch date Africa Uganda 2300 Dec-12• Widely available and cheaper than FDD Asia Pacific Japan 2600 Dec-12 South Korea 2300 Dec-13• Better meets the asymmetric demands of data Taiwan 2600 Dec-13 traffic such as Internet and video China 1900 Dec-12 2300 Dec-12• Provides LTE migration path for WiMAX 2600 Dec-12 operators India 2300 Sep-12 2600 Mar-13 Eastern Europe Czech Republic 2600 Jun-12• Has vendor support including: Estonia 2600 Dec-10 • Ericsson, Huawei, NSN, ZTE, Alcatel-Lucent Poland 2600 Dec-12 (infrastructure) Latin America Brazil 2600 Dec-14 • Qualcomm, ST-Ericsson, Altair, Sequans, Middle East Saudi Arabia 2600 Dec-11 ZTE (chipsets) North America US 2600 Dec-13 • Nokia, Quanta, ZTE, Huawei , Coolpad. Western Europe France 2600 Mar-13 (devices) Greece 2600 Mar-14 Italy 2600 Dec-12• China Mobile/Apple developing a TD-LTE Portugal 2600 Jun-12 iPhone Spain 2600 Dec-12 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media Growing industry support for converged TDD/FDD LTE ecosystem 17 ©Confidential
  18. 18. Forecasts• Subscription forecasts and LTE addressable market band• Forecast network launch dates by band• LTE penetration by population and total subscription, by region, country and band• Forecast network launch dates by country and operator• LTE footprint maps by band 22/07/2011 18 ©Confidential
  19. 19. Global LTE launch dates by band 22/07/2011 19 ©Confidential
  20. 20. Operator-level LTE launch dates by band 22/07/2011 20 ©Confidential
  21. 21. Global, forecast LTE subscription growth,2011-2016 21 ©Confidential
  22. 22. Core band market share as a proportion ofglobal addressable market, 2011 and 2016 22 ©Confidential
  23. 23. Global addressable market for 2600MHz FDDband, 2011-2016 23 ©Confidential
  24. 24. Global addressable market for 700MHz FDDband, 2011-2016 24 ©Confidential
  25. 25. Spectrum 22/07/2011 25©Confidential
  26. 26. Candidate bands for re-farmingEurope/Asia Pacific: 900MHz; 1800MHz; 2100MHz Americas: 800MHz; 850MHz; 1900MHz 22/07/2011 26 ©Confidential
  27. 27. Re-farming challengesEnsuring regulatory barriers are removed RegulatoryResolving inter-operator disputesIdentifying candidate bandsDeveloping a strategy for migratingGSM/EDGE/UMTS StrategicProtecting existing revenue-generatingservicesMoving to single RANEnsuring co-existence of technologies through Technicalimplementation of guard bands 22/07/2011 27 ©Confidential
  28. 28. LTE 22/07/2011 28©Confidential
  29. 29. LTE Devices – size of the challenge• Device vendors will have to offer LTE multiband devices In order to achieve global economies• Mobile devices already support existing modes (e.g., four GSM/GPRS bands, one UMTS band, Wi-Fi/Bluetooth band and GPS). Adding more antennas is challenging in terms of industrial design.• Operators want to ensure that users can take advantage of LTE’s high bandwidth when the service is available to them and switch to legacy services in regions where there is no LTE coverage.• Device vendors will have to rationalize the number of LTE bands they want to support, in order to meet conditions of cost, power consumption and device size 22/07/2011 29 ©Confidential
  30. 30. The integration conundrum • Mobile devices are already required to support different modes including GSM/GPRS/EDG E/HSPA, Wi-Fi, GPS and/or CDMA access technologies. • Adding another mode without compromising the form factor, cost or power consumption is challenging 22/07/2011 30 ©Confidential
  31. 31. LTE device status as of 1H11• Majority of the services are accessible via portable routers, USB dongles, Wi-Fi routers and connected netbooks; only two are using smartphones and tablet devices.• 71 mobile device models announced so far: 52% support the 700MHz band 25% support the 2600MHz band 17% support the 1800MHz band 14% support the 800MHz band 11% support the 2100MHz band 11% support AWS 4% support the 900MHz band.• 57% of current LTE mobile devices are single LTE band, 17% are dual LTE band and only 26% are LTE tri-bands or more.• 130 LTE-compliant CE devices in the market, of which 45% are home and portable modems targeting fixed-wireless applications 22/07/2011 31 ©Confidential
  32. 32. LTE device status as of 1H11: Notebooks, netbooks,tablets and smartphones 22/07/2011 32 ©Confidential
  33. 33. 22/07/2011 33©Confidential
  34. 34. LTE spectrum – key concerns• The availability of spectrum is a major concern for operators as they formulate their LTE-deployment plans. There is widespread uncertainty among regulators, operators and vendors as to which bands will become available and when• Operators that are eager to deploy LTE are having to make choices based on currently available spectrum. Those planning to deploy in the future have to formulate their plans against a background of uncertainty about spectrum availability and timelines.• Spectrum fragmentation poses a real threat that could slow the deployment of LTE and so delay realizing the full benefits of the technology, not least in terms of efforts to create economies of scale for devices. 22/07/2011 34 ©Confidential
  35. 35. The research• Using primary research coupled with extensive industry data, Informa’s regional research and forecasting teams have identified the addressable market for LTE by frequency band out to end-2016, building a year-by-year growth profile for each of the LTE bands, and showing among other aspects: • When and where new bands will be deployed on a region-by-region, and operator-by-operator basis • Which will be the commercially important core bands over the next five years and where the distinct regional focus will be in terms of which bands and band pairs are adopted globally • How the relative market shares among the core bands will change as the global addressable market expands, new spectrum is licensed, and more operators re-farm legacy services to free up existing spectrum for LTE 22/07/2011 35 ©Confidential
  36. 36. Key findings• All regions will see LTE deployed in multiple bands• The high-end bands at 2300MHz and 2600MHz will address the largest market by subscriptions over the forecast period• There is growing support for TD-LTE, although China will account for 88% of the total addressable market for 2300MHz TD-LTE by 2016• The 1800MHz band is attracting widespread interest for its combination of coverage and capacity, and will likely see a high level of adoption in Western Europe and Asia-Pacific• The 3GPP LTE band plan is continuing to evolve, with new bands being defined and existing bands being re-configured• Devices will continue to be a major challenge, with vendors forced to rationalize the number of bands they support 22/07/2011 36 ©Confidential
  37. 37. Thank you.Julian BrightSenior Analyst, Networksjulian.bright@informa.com22/07/2011
  38. 38. Make better business decisions