4G Business Readiness: LTE Opportunities and Challenges in Asia | www.solidiance.com


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LTE global growth is forecasted to be led by Asia Pacific with India and China as major drivers. In this whitepaper, Solidiance provides a snapshot of the likely changes Long Term Evolution will bring to Asia wireless communication operators and the mobile internet service providers. It compares the differences between LTE and WiMAX, as well as outlook of the LTE network adoption worldwide via the growth of 3G subscriber base from now, until 2013.

Other key takeaways included in this whitepaper are forecasts of 3G subscribers by region, worldwide LTE adoption data, mobile usage behaviour of several Asian countries, as well as the key challenges and opportunities of LTE adoption.

Visit www.solidiance.com for more insights on how we can help you position and grow your business in Asia Pacific.

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4G Business Readiness: LTE Opportunities and Challenges in Asia | www.solidiance.com

  1. 1. LTE Business ReadinessLong Term Evolution (LTE) is a key buzz word in the mobile networks sector, but little has been writtenabout the opportunities and challenges that are brought forward by this new technology. This paper aimsto provide a snapshot of the likely changes it will bring to telecom operators and the mobile internetservice providers businesses. The paper shall also look at the adoption of LTE network worldwide via thegrowth of 3G subscriber base from now until 2013. Asia Pacific seems to lead this growth with India andChina expected to be the major contributors. This paper also draws attention to two case studies, that ofTeliaSonera and Verizon Wireless of their successful deployment of the LTE network. The paper shall alsodefine LTE, in comparison to WiMAX.www.solidiance.com
  2. 2. Contents I LTE global outlook and forecast Page 3 1 What is LTE? Page 3 2 So how is it different from WiMAX? Page 3 3 Who are the early adopters of LTE? Page 6 4 Ingredients to increase ARPU – Opportunity for Network Operators Page 7 5 LTE adoption & its challenges Page 13 6 Forecast data for number of 3G subscribers by region Page 16 7 Mobile data traffic by devices Page 17 II Case studies: Assessment of LTE success globally Page 17 1 TeliaSonera: How different is the usage of LTE from 3G Page 17 2 Verizon Wireless: Leveraging on the dynamic eco-system of LTE Page 202
  3. 3. LTE Global Outlook and ForecastMobile Networks continue to grow at an exciting pace. There are 6 billion mobile phone subscriptionsin the world, with 1.2 billion of them using mobile internet. Today, one in five mobile phone subscribershave access to fast mobile internet service (3G or better). Consumer demands for advanced services andmore connected lifestyles is pushing the mobile telecom industry to come up with technical solutions thatenable network operators to meet this demand of consumers. Working on the same lines, 3rd GenerationPartnership Project (3GPP) came up with a standard called Long Term Evolution (LTE).What is LTE ?Simply put, LTE is just another way to give enhanced data speed and new services to consumers. LTEdoes this by creating a new radio access network named Evolved UMTS Terrestrial RadioAccess Network (E-UTRAN), which supports all IP-based traffic. LTE has a new packetcore network called System ​ Evolution (SAE), which will support E-UTRAN. Together,these two will help network operators improve end-user throughputs, sector capacity,reduce user plane latency and better multipath, mobility and power performance.3GPP has set aggressive performance targets for LTE. It is relying on technologies likeMultiple-Input Multiple-Output system (MIMO), Orthogonal Frequency DivisionMultiplexing (OFDM) & smart antennas to achieve these targets. One of the mainobjectives of LTE is to minimize complexities in existing system infrastructureand offer operators a simple upgrade path from current 3G networks.So how is it differentfrom WiMAX ?LTE is developed by 3GPP, while WiMAX is a product of IEEE. LTEand WiMAX, though are different technological standards,yet posses many similarities. One cannot call them siblings,but calling them blood-related would not be too wrong. 3
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  5. 5. LTE will help telecom operators to give better data usage experience to customers. In HSPA+ you have a speed of maximum 42Mbit/sec per cell to be shared by all subscribers connected to that cell but LTE gives maximum of 300Mbit/sec per cell - Regional LTE Product Line Manager at Alcatel-Lucent (Malaysia)Here is a brief comparison between two: through WiMAX. This point is important forSpeed: network operators as International roamingLTE can achieve 300 Mbit/s on downlink & 75 contributes substantially to their revenuesMbit/s on uplink. Whereas, WiMAX can give 128 and also provides convenience to theirMbit/s on downlink & 56 Mbit/s on uplink. consumers.Latency: SIM Card:There is a good difference between latency of LTE, like GSM requires SIM card to operate.these two technologies. Latency rate for LTE is WiMAX does not require a SIM card. Looking10ms while for WiMAX it is 50ms. Low latency at the popularity of GSM networks, it sure is arate is important for real-time multimedia disadvantage for WiMAX.services like online gaming & conferences as the Power Consumption:signal must arrive at the destination as soon as LTE uses SC-FDMA modulation in uplinkpossible channels, hence requires less power thanRoaming: WiMAX. This results in longer battery time ofLTE provides roaming on all 3GPP networks. mobile device for LTE.However, roaming is not very easy to achieve LTE WIMAX Speed 300 Mbit/s Downlink 128 Mbit/s Downlink 75 Mbit/s Uplink 56 Mbit/s Uplink Latency 10ms 50ms OFDMA (downlink) OFDMA (downlink) Modulation SC-FDMA (uplink) OFDMA (uplink) MIMO Yes Yes FDD/TDD FDD for full duplex on two 5 MHz channels TDD for half duplex on one 10 MHz channels Mobility Operates with a target up to 350 km/h Operates with a target up to 120 km/h 5
  6. 6. Worldwide LTE adoption (chosen countries) Norway - TeliaSonera Poland - Mobyland and CenterNet Launched Dec 15 2009 Launched Sept 7 2010 Sweden - TeliaSonera Austria - Mobilkom Austria Launched Dec 15 2009 Launched Oct 19 2010 Uzbekistan - MTS Launched Jul 28 2010 Uzbekistan - UCell Launched Aug 2010 Hong Kong - CSL Launched Nov 25 2010 Armenia - Vivacell-MTS Launched Dec 20 2010 Japan - NTT DoCoMo USA - MetroPCS Launched Dec 25 2010 Launched Sept 21 2010 Korea - SK Telecom India - Bharti Aritel Launched Apr 10 2012 Launched Jul 1 2011 Srilanka - Dialog Axiata Korea - LG Uplus Launched May 7 2011 Launched Jul 1 2011 Saudi Arabia - Zain Singapore - M1 Launched Sept 21 2011 Launched Jun 20 2011 Saudi Arabia - STC Singapore - SingTel Launched Sept 22 2011 Launched Dec 20 2011 Saudi Arabia - Mobily Philippines - Smart Communications Launched Sept 24 2011 Launched Apr 16 2011 Source: Solidiance Analysis Who are the early adopters of LTE ? TeliaSonera was the first operator to launch commercial LTE service in the two Scandinavian countries Norway & Sweden. 15 new operators were added to this list in 2010, 31 in 2011 and other 9 launched LTE services in the beginning of 2012. LTE is fast becoming a global standard and Asian operators are certainly not going to watch the party from outside, CSL Hong Kong and NTT Docomo have already launched their LTE services. Middle Eastern operator are also picking up pace in launching LTE.6
  7. 7. LTE is the new GSM, it is the sort of standard we were waiting for. It is technologically advance and much more stable than WiMAX, it provides similar mobility as GSM and enables quick updates to its system - LTE Project Manager, ZTE (Hong Kong)Ingredients to increase ARPU – Opportunity forNetwork OperatorsSmart Device boom:Non-PC devices are replacing PC devices at a fast rate. Consumers want everything to be mobile asmanufacturers are providing them with devices that can handle high amount of data transfer whilethey are on a move. Devices like iPhone and Blackberry are already a phenomenon in major Asiancities like Singapore and Jakarta which implies that users are tech savvy and will be willing to adopt LTEdevices in future Computing Device Sales 2011Smartphones 46%Laptops 25%Desktops 18%Tablets 6%Netbooks 5% Source: Solidiance Analysis 7
  8. 8. Usage of mobile devices as a primary internet device is also increasing in Asia. 44% of mobile web users in Indonesia never use internet on desktop PCs. Other prominent countries in this category are India, Thailand and China. Users are opting for either smart phones or laptops/net books to meet their web needs. Percentage of mobile Web users who never or infrequently use the desktop Web (2011) Egypt 70% India 59% South Africa 57% Ghana 55% Kenya 54% Nigeria 50% Indonesia 44% Thailand 32% China 30% USA 25% Source: Solidiance Analysis8
  9. 9. Cloud computing & Software as a Service:It is already becoming the talk of the town as network hosted information and applications allowsubscribers to upload and download data at ease from anywhere. Network operators can build an eco-system around this and use software as a Service.Leveraging on Web 2.0:LTE allows network operators to leverage on the applications and services provided by web 2.0 to servetheir consumers with personalized products.Automatic initiation of Multiple, simultaneous sessions:Mobile browsers can initiate multiple, simultaneous connections from the device, to the network, todownload security updates, refresh local mini-databases, and enable applications. This gives morecontrol to networks to personalize content for users.Data usage on a high in Asian marketsData is fast replacing voice and SMS as the major contributor to ARPU for network operators in Asia.Market is led by Philippines and Japan, closely followed by Korea and Singapore. So, there is a fastgrowing need in Asian markets for enhanced data speed and new services.Top five operators in the world by proportion ofrevenues derived from data (2011) Smart Philippines Globe Philippines SoftBank Japan NTT Docomo Japan KDDI Japan Source: Portio Research 9
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  11. 11. With the inception of 3G, India is witnessing a change in the telecom spectrum and LTE would be a logical next step for the market. Local Indian handset manufacturers along with a wide array of mobile software companies would give LTE a perfect platform to launch - Praneet Mehrotra - Prinicipal, Solidiance Asia PacificUsage of mobile devices as a primary internet device is also increasing in Asia. 44% of mobile web usersin Indonesia never use internet on desktop PCs. Other prominent countries in this category are India,Thailand and China. Users are opting for either smart phones or laptops/net books to meet their webneeds. 41.1 38.3 % 34.1 33.7 32.6 % % 32.2 31.5 % 29.1 % % 27.4 % % % Japan Korea China Percentage of mobile internet usage in some Asian countries (2011) 46.3 Mobile Internet time at home 42.1 % % 37.9 % 34.6 Mobile Internet time at Work % Mobile Internet time on the go 20 19.1 % % Source: ITU Pakistan India 11
  12. 12. A comparison of mobile usage behaviour amongst Japan, US and 5 European countries reveal that Japanese users at an average use more data services than users of any other country used in this comparison. Japan has always been a benchmark in mobile technology in Asia and like Japan, if other Asian countries start to provide high data speed to customers, their ARPU from data would substantially rise. Mobile behaviour in Japan, United States and EU5 (UK, Germany, France, Spain & Italy) - 2010. Percent of total mobile audience (Age 13+) Japan USA Europe Used Browser 59.3% 59.3% 59.3% Used Applications 42.3% 42.3% 42.3% Instant Messaging 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Email 54.0% 54.0% 54.0% Accessed social media/entertainment Social networking 17.0% 21.4% 14.7% or blog Watched TV and/or 22.0% 4.8% 5.4% video Played Games 16.3% 22.5% 24.1% Accessed Financial Services Bank Accounts 8% 9.4% 7.1% Financial News 16.1% 10.0% 7.2% Accessed Retail/Travel/Weather Retail Site 7.2% 5.5% 4.1% Classifieds 4.2% 6.6% 4.2% Travel Service 3.3% 4.7% 4.1% Maps 15.7% 16.0% 10.8% Traffic reports 12.6% 8.2% 5.9% Weather news 34.1% 22.3% 13.7% Source: Portio Research Cost per Mb on LTE is much lower for telecom operator as compared to WiMax or 3G - Regional LTE Product Line Manager at Alcatel-Lucent (Malaysia)12
  13. 13. In Asia, most probably we will use 2.6 GHz band. It has its advantages anddisadvantages, on the up-side governments will have a wider bandwidth to offer to operators as compared to 800MHz or 900MHz band so operators can make use of full capacity of LTE. However, a higher frequency means poor coverage, so operators will have to invest more in cell sites - Regional LTE Product Line Manager at Alcatel-Lucent (Malaysia) LTE adoption & its challenges Spectrum Harmonization: One of the key benefits of GSM networks has been seamless roaming across countries and continents, largely because of harmonized spectrum spanning large parts of the world. LTE infrastructure is being designed to operate in different spectrum bands of different sizes, however, ranging from 1.25 MHz to 20 MHz. To truly support seamless global roaming, harmonized spectrum will be needed otherwise the burden is shifted to terminals e.g., handsets or mobile devices to support multiple frequency bands, which adds time, expense, complexity and inefficiency to the equation. In US, 700 MHz band has already been auctioned for LTE. However, European countries are trying to free 800 MHz band for LTE. One other option is 2.6 GHz band and it can serve as harmonized spectrum. However, there are a couple of important attributes to the 2.6 GHz frequency band. First, relatively poor propagation characteristics will significantly impact indoor coverage, an issue already quite visible in the 3G HSPA networks deployed in the 2.1 GHz band. Second, poor propagation characteristics also translate into smaller cell radius, hence the need for more cells, which adds expense and complexity. Lastly and most importantly, frequency has a direct impact on network costs, as both op-ex and cap-ex increase significantly with higher frequency. 13
  14. 14. other technologies (GSM, CDMA, 3G) as well? Network operators might start their service with data cards and dongles but the advent of LTE smartphone will change the whole landscape of LTE adoption. Many carriers are not rolling out LTE nationwide in their domains so for an LTE device to have the ability to drop back to another technology network is also a must. LTE devices need to support Multiple Input/ Multiple Output (MIMO) in order to deliver high data rates but this directly increases a device’s complexity. One of the interesting things to watch will be whether the initial devices will support only 2x2 MIMO or Voice over LTE: whether some vendors will launch devices In LTE, most of the standardization work has supporting 4x4 MIMO from the start. This been focused on the data aspects and voice has choice is directly related to battery life, and been somewhat neglected. Different operators while data cards and dongles might get are giving different priority to this issue; in fact, enough juice from their hosting laptops and some of the early adopters are looking at data- netbooks but smart phone designers have only services for their initial LTE network rollouts. critical design challenges in front of them in Clearly, the full op-ex and cap-ex benefits of LTE terms of balancing battery life with MIMO can only be realized when all traffic types are support. carried over a single, unified core. The issue of standardization of voice over LTE gets even more Consumer’s expectation management: complicated when we bring into the mix the Consumers have traditionally been paying interlocking of LTE with different types of legacy little amount of money for their data plans networks including GSM, HSPA, CDMA2000, as many operators have followed the flat WiMAX and Wi-Fi. rate business model. It is yet to be seen how network operators will be able to charge Devices & Terminals: premium prices to customer for LTE usage. One of the key aspects to look into is the availability AT&T in US claims that iPhone drives 30 of devices for LTE. When will they be available? times more traffic than average feature How would they look like? Would they support phones but looking at ARPU we find iPhone14
  15. 15. users are not even paying 3 times more than an also ties to spectrum re-farming, which isaverage feature phone user. expensive. Switching off GSM networks would enable operators to re-farm that spectrum,Co-existence of 2G, 3G and LTE networks: but there are many strict regulations aroundNetwork operators can not shut down their this spectrum in different countries includingexisting networks as they have a huge subscriber complete nationwide coverage requirements.base on legacy networks. The challenge is how to Alternatively, operators might considermanage multiple networks? Operators currently keeping their 2G networks going for a whileenjoy significant roaming revenues from their and switch off their 3G networks first andGSM networks. Parting from this high margin migrate those 3G users to LTE.revenue stream is not going to be easy. The issueForecast data for number of 3Gsubscribers by regionAsia Pacific will lead the growth in 3G subscriber base in coming years. India and China will be themajor contributors. Projected number of 3G subscribers 2013 Asia Pascific 40%Western Europe 19% US & Canada 10% Latin America 10% Eastern Europe 9% Africa 7% Middle East 5% Source: Solidiance Analysis 15
  16. 16. Top countries - 3G Penetration 2011 97% Japan 92% Singapore 82% South Korea 73% Portugal 71% Australia 69% Sweden 58% Canada 56% USA Source: Solidiance Analysis Subscriber response has been really good for LTE services. It is not a cheap service but it sure does help network operators to catch the top-tier or the most profitable group of customers. LTE will remain to be seen as a premium service and customers will be willing to pay high price for it at least for 2 more years - ex-Network Strategist , Telia Sonera Sweden16
  17. 17. Mobile data traffic by devices 2009 Laptops & other Mobile-Ready Portables Smartphones 2010 Home Gateways Non-Smartphones 2011 2012 2013 1500000 3000000Case study: Assessment of LTE success globallyCase Study: TeliaSonera – How different is the usage of LTE from 3G?TeliaSonera was the first operator in the world to deploy LTE, and launched LTEservices commercially to customers in Norway and Sweden on 15 December 2009.A survey conducted by TeliaSonera on its customers’ habits on their first 100days of using LTE showed a marked difference in the usage patterns and dataconsumptions of LTE users, compared to 3G users. The average smartphoneuser consumes about 375 MB of data a month, but users of LTE consume 15GB a month. This is equivalent to the amount consumed by the typicalwired broadband user, which is 14.9 GB a month according to Cisco.TeliaSonera’s LTE users have been taking advantage of the enhancedspeed of LTE, which is ten times the speed of a typical 3G connection.A survey of the network’s LTE users found• 54 percent would not consider returning to 3G at present• 46 percent surf the web more frequently when away from home• 26 percent say they are working more on a mobile basis• 23 percent say they are downloading larger files to a greater extent than previously 17
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  19. 19. • 16 percent say they began surfing more after the introduction of LTE • 23 percent say they watch more online TV • 28 percent listen to more Web radio and music services like Spotify • 12 percent have increased their online gaming frequency Source: Light Reading, TeliaSonera According to TeliaSonera’s CTO of mobility services, Lars Klasson, streaming video is a significant contributor to the new traffic on the network as more people are using the fast LTE connection to watch streamed TV channels, with some even using their laptops at home as a second TV The rapid overall growth in demand for data has led to a surge in TeliaSonera’s mobile data revenues in the Nordic region, leading to an increase in 2010 Q4 profits by 8 per cent to US$818mTeliaSonera LTE Pricing and AvailabilityAfter an initial grace period where TeliaSonera charged a nominal fee of US$0.56 a month forunlimited access to stimulate interest and adoption. TeliaSonera has now introduced a three-tieredpricing plan in Sweden . Name of Price Bandwidth Fair Usage Plan (per month) Limitation Mobile Broadband US$92 10 to 80 Mbps 30 GB Total 4G Mobile Broadband Stor (Large) US$56 10 to 20 Mbps 20 GB Mobile Broadband US$46 5 to 10 Mbps 10 GB Mellan (Medium)Initially, only Samsung LTE dongles were available for accessing the network, but TeliaSonera andSamsung have recently launched a laptop with a 4G modem, which is also backward compatibleTeliaSonera and SpotifyIn 2009, TeliaSonera signed an exclusive 2-year agreement with Spotify, a Swedish music streamingservice. A study by Informa Telecoms & Media, utilizing real data from TeliaSonera and Spotify,estimated that an operator in Western Europe with 20 million customers could potentially generateUS$106.3 million of revenues from partnering with a music streaming service. This is on top of otherbenefits such as reduced churn, increased ARPU, brand awareness and increased lifetime customervalue. Spotify has helped TeliaSonera to differentiate itself from its competitors, as over half ofSpotify/TeliaSonera customers said that they were more likely to stay with Telia as a result of thepartnership with Spotify). The partnership allows Telia to leverage on Spotify’s strong brand presence,especially with those under 30, and effectively tackle the challenge of targeting young subscribers. 19
  20. 20. Case Study: Verizon Wireless – LTE and its dynamic eco-system Verizon has long been known for its ‘walled garden’ approach, but is abandoning this model in the face of 4G. As noted by Lowell McAdam, president and COO of Verizon, collaboration and openness are the ‘new paradigm’ in the wireless industry, and innovations in applications and use are increasingly coming from beyond the company. In response to this, Verizon plans to transform its business model by opening its network, applications and location technologies to outside developers The International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in January 2011 saw Verizon announcing a slew of new partnerships to add to its value added services offerings for its LTE customers. Slacker Radio, an Internet radio service, announced that an optimized application for the Verizon Wireless 4G LTE Mobile Broadband network will be available on select 4G smartphones. It will provide Verizon Wireless 4G LTE customers with high-fidelity audio and high-resolution album art in addition to artist profiles and album review, making for a highly personalized music experience. Users will also be able to cache their favourite stations for offline playback. Other music streaming services such as Rhapsody, MOG and Tune Wiki also announced the release of exclusive mobile applications on the Verizon Wireless 4G LTE network, creating a plethora of choices for Verizon LTE users Verizon Wireless 4G LTE customers will also have the ability to watch their home TV on their 4G smartphones through a monthly subscription to Sling Media, which will include the Slingbox, the SlingPlayer application and networking accessories. The significantly faster connection and reduced latency of the 4G LTE network will enable subscribers to enjoy a higher video quality. The on-demand premium mobile TV and movie service BitBop also announced at CES that it would be available to Verizon Wireless customers on both the 3G and 4G LTE Mobile Broadband networks, with additional functionality for 4G LTE customers in the form of higher-quality video streams and downloads Mobile gaming will also get a boost, with Gameloft stating at CES that Let’s Golf! 2 will be available on20
  21. 21. certain 4G smartphones on the Verizon 4G LTE network. The game is Gameloft’s first high-definitiongame that can be played over the LTE network, featuring multiplayer capabilities that can be accessedwithout a Wi-Fi connectionAnother value added service offered by Verizon Wireless comes from its partnership with 4HomeConnected Solutions, enabling customers to monitor and control their homes and energy consumptionremotely using select smartphones. The 4G LTE network ensures that customers can enjoy fasterresponse times and real-time, high quality video streaming. This service taps into a growing demandfor mobile and online home monitoring applications, with a survey by Parks Associates revealing that50% of survey respondents were interested in an online application for energy managementVerizon and SkypeVerizon Wireless is also building on its partnership with Skype (first announced in February 2010)by enabling customers to make Skype-to-Skype video calls on its 4G LTE network. Skype mobile willbe ‘deeply integrated’ into a range of 4G smartphones with front- and rear-facing cameras,and these smartphones will be made available by mid-2011. Skype mobile on the 4G LTEnetwork offers an enhanced user experience due to the low latency of the network, andalso meets a growing demand for mobile video calling. 21
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  23. 23. About Solidiance Solidiance is a dedicated B2B marketing and growth strategy and g consultancy firm focused on the Asia Pacific Region. What We Do We help multinational clients understand the Asian market landscape by profiling industries and competition, sizing the markets, segmenting customers, analyzing distribution channels, determining the best locations, preparing investment feasibility studies, identifying suppliers, reviewing potential joint ventures or acquisitions, and delivering market entry and growth strategyin Asia.What We’re Focusing OnOur industry experience is centered on industrial applications, green buildings, cleantech, technology,and healthcare. Our Asian market entry and growth strategy services provide the required insightsand the necessary roadmap to capture a profitable market share in the region.SpecialtiesAsia marketing & competitive strategy, Asia innovation consulting, Asia market intelligence, Vietnammarket research, Indonesia market research, Asia market entry & growth strategy, Asia B2B research,Asia pricing & distribution strategy, Asia M&A due dilligence.Additional DetailsSolidiance has offices in China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. We arefast expanding and always on the lookout for exceptional people.Our Clients 23
  24. 24. Our OfficesSingapore IndonesiaSuite 07-05 Suite 6A, 15/FHigh Street Centre Menara Palma,1 North Bridge Road Jl Rasuna Said Block X-2Singapore 179094 Kav 6, Jakarta 12950Phone: + 65 6408 8202 Phone: +62 21 5795 7465Thailand VietnamInterchange Tower 21 Suite 704, Satra Dong Khoi#2109 - 21F Building399 Sukhumvit Road 58 Dong Khoi streetNorth Klongtoey, Wattana District 1, HCMCBangkok 10110 Phone: +84 8 3521 8639Phone: +66 2 611 2664 MalaysiaChina Level 8, Suite 832,Suite 516, Fuxing Plaza Pavillion KL109 Yan Dang Road 169 Jalan Bukit BintangShanghai 200020 55100 Kuala LumpurP.R.China MalaysiaPhone: +86 21 5301 9980 Phone: +60 3920 58429IndiaA-9, Third AvenueBandh RoadNew DelhiPhone: +91 99999 88859Emailinfo@solidiance.comwww.solidiance.com