April’s 211,000 net new jobs were a return to the more robust growth rates seen over the past two years, although March figures were revised down once again to 79,000 jobs. Unemployment fell by 10 basis points to another cyclical low of 4.4 percent in April.
2. April 2017 U.S. labor market at a glance
2
+211,000
(79 consecutive months
of growth)
1-month net change
+2,237,000
(+1.6% y-o-y)
12-month change
+800,000
10-year average annual growth
4.4%
Unemployment rate
5,743,000
(+3.2% y-o-y)
Job openings
-60bp
12-month change in unemployment
62.9%
Labor force participation rate
5,314,000
(-2.4% y-o-y)
Hires
3,084,000
(+3.4% y-o-y)
Quits
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. Lack of contribution from retail trade pulling down monthly gains
April’s 211,000 net new jobs were a return to the more robust growth rates seen over the past two years, although March figures were revised down once again
to 79,000 jobs. Year-to-date, employment growth stands at 738,000 jobs compared to 741,000 this time last year, indicating steady gains so far. Broken down by
industry, leisure, education and health and professional services continue to be dominant, contributing to 63.9 percent of monthly additions. Previously a leader,
retail trade continues to struggle: it has contracted by 14,500 jobs year-to-date, well below the 113,800 jobs that it created by April 2016.
Unemployment drops once again as saturation intensifies
Unemployment fell by 10 basis points to another cyclical low of 4.4 percent in April, aided by a combination of stronger job growth and fewer people entering
and participating in the workforce: only 12,000 net new entrants were recorded during the month, while participation slid by 10 basis points to 62.9 percent. At
annual rates, job creation is double that of labor force expansion, which is further squeezing talent and pushing up wages. The effects of this are beginning to be
seen in the office market with slower occupancy growth due to talent shortages, most notably in tech-heavy geographies.
Confidence is up even as inflation ramps up
Even with a slight dip in April, consumer confidence remains above pre-recession heights at 120.9 points, with similar sentiment felt in much of the business
community. However, rising inflation is beginning to have an effect on consumer spending, which was largely flat during the first quarter and suppressed GDP
growth to just 0.3 percent. Wage growth remains high, particularly in skilled areas such as information and professional services, but increasing prices of goods
and services will begin to temper further spending.
April 2017 U.S. labor market highlights
3Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7. 2.4%
2.4%
2.6%
2.9%
3.2%
4.2%
4.5%
4.7%
4.9%
5.2%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Construction
Information
Mining and logging
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation and utilities
Financial activities
Other services
Professional and business services
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health
Job openings rate (%)
The job openings rate for education and health has
risen past 5.0 percent; stable elsewhere
7Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8. -3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
12-month%change
Wage growth Inflation
A 30bp drop in the consumer price index was matched
by an equal drop in wage growth to 2.4 percent
8Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9. 4.3%
2.4%
2.3%
2.5%
2.6%
2.6%
3.0%
2.4%
3.5%
4.4%
1.4%
1.7%
1.9%
2.1%
2.2%
2.6%
2.7%
3.1%
4.3%
4.6%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
Mining and logging
Trade, transportation and utilities
Education and health
Construction
Financial activities
Other services
Manufacturing
Professional and business services
Leisure and hospitality
Information
12-month wage growth (%)
April 2017 April 2016
Information, leisure and professional services saw
most sustained increases in wage growth
9Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
10. 62%
63%
63%
64%
64%
65%
65%
66%
66%
67%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
12-month%changeAfter increasing earlier in 2017, the labor force
participation rate declined by 10bp to 62.9 percent
10Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11. -6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
12-month%change
Civilian labor force Employment
Jobs continue to be added twice as fast as people enter
the labor force, resulting in tightening
11Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12. -7.0
-3.0
0.7
2.8
3.5
5.0
5.8
6.0
6.3
7.0
8.2
9.0
10.0
17.0
19.0
36.8
39.0
41.0
55.0
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Information
Durable goods
Utilities
Motor vehicles and parts
Transportation and warehousing
Construction
Temporary help services
Manufacturing
Retail trade
Other services
Wholesale trade
Nondurable goods
Mining and logging
Government
Financial activities
Health care and social assistance
Professional and business services
Education and health services
Leisure and hospitality
1-month net change (thousands)
Leisure, education, health and professional services
continue to lead monthly additions by a large margin
12Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
13. -46.0
-8.0
0.4
2.4
21.0
40.0
48.0
53.9
56.0
75.0
83.5
112.4
173.0
173.0
179.0
304.0
435.5
512.0
612.0
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Information
Durable goods
Utilities
Motor vehicles and parts
Mining and logging
Manufacturing
Nondurable goods
Wholesale trade
Other services
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Temporary help services
Construction
Financial activities
Government
Leisure and hospitality
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
Hiring constraints are beginning to lower annual
growth figures, but distribution of gains not changed
13Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
612.0
512.0
304.0
173.0
75.0
521.0
PBS Education and health
Leisure and hospitality Financial activities
Retail trade Manufacturing
All other jobs
Core subsectors added 76.7 percent of all
jobs over the past 12 months.
15. -300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Professional and business services Financial activities Information
Financial activities saw a significantly bump in April
(+19,000 jobs), but information is still in contraction
15Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
16. -10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
12-month%change
Tech Energy, mining and utilities Office-using Total non-farm
Tech’s 4.4-percent annual growth is the slowest so far
this cycle as industry-specific constraints emerge
16Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19. Atlanta and Nashville saw employment accelerate
rapidly to 3.9 percent as in-migration increases
19
3.2%
3.3%
3.3%
3.4%
3.6%
3.7%
3.8%
3.9%
3.9%
2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Seattle-Bellevue
Salt Lake City
Austin
Fort Lauderdale
Orlando
Jacksonville
Dallas
Atlanta
Nashville
12-month % change
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics