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Green to Scale –
Low-Carbon Success Stories
to Inspire the World
1
#GreenToScale
Why Green to Scale?
2Sitra • Mari Pantsar
3Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
The big picture
Do we have technology to rapidly reduce emissions? How much will it
cost? Are suggested solutions feasible in my country? Can it be done?
4Sitra • Mari Pantsar
Understandable concerns slow down climate action
How far can we go if proven low-carbon solutions already applied
somewhere are adopted by comparable countries?
5Sitra • Mari Pantsar
Green to Scale answers a simple question
• Many studies before have looked at the potential of existing solutions
• No studies have focused exclusively on scaling up concrete cases to the
level achieved already in some countries
6Sitra • Mari Pantsar
Have I heard this before?
7Sitra • Mari Pantsar
Distinguished partners from 10 countries
COPPE
CEMDA
WRI
ECF
UNEP DTU Sitra
SEI
Renmin
Masdar
EDRI
IGES
IFC
8Sitra • Mari Pantsar
1. A gift from the Parliament to 50-year-old
Finland
2. An independent foresight agency and
systemic change agent
3. Funded by returns on endowment capital
and capital investments
4. Vision of Finland as a successful pioneer
in sustainable well-being
5. Three themes, six focus areas and dozens
of projects
+ 1 Building our future together
5 + 1 key Sitra facts
Photograph: Erkki Laitila, HS/Lehtikuva 1967
Global headline
results
9Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
10Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
Massive impact by just scaling up existing solutions
11Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
How much exactly is 12 Gt?
12 Gt
12 Gt is equal to a quarter of current global emissions
or the emissions of China and Japan combined
12Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
Five solutions reach the gigatonne range
13Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
Cost savings possible, range in estimates wide
14Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
Proven solutions are affordable
• Cost estimates do not include two important groups of benefits
1. Avoided climate impacts: cutting emissions slows down warming and
reduces damages from climate impacts
2. Co-benefits: many low-carbon solutions have significant co-benefits, such as
improved health, more jobs and better energy security
• Factoring in full benefits would make the solutions even more attractive
15Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
Including all benefits makes action more attractive
17 proven low-
carbon solutions
16Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
17
Solar water heating
Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
v
• The US is a world leader in some areas of climate action
• Other countries could learn from the US in e.g.
• improving the energy efficiency of industrial motors
• reducing methane from oil and gas production
• The US in turn could benefit from the successes of other countries, such as
• solar power in Germany
• cutting food waste in Denmark
• improving appliance efficiency in Japan
22Sitra • Mari Pantsar
What others can learn from the US – and vice versa
What do the results
mean?
23Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
How far can we get with proven solutions?
• On balance, the results are likely to be conservative for several reasons:
1. only 17 solutions are analysed out of a universe of many more
2. solutions are applied only to the extent that some countries have already
implemented them to date
3. no new technologies or policy innovations are assumed
4. some solutions could have a larger scope or scalability than studied
25Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
And even more can be done
1. Many solutions require large upfront investments, but save money over time
– such as improving energy efficiency
2. The costs of many solutions have dropped dramatically over the past years,
most notably solar power
3. Affordability was one criterion in selecting the solutions – including other
solutions could raise the total costs
4. While global average costs tend to be affordable, there is large variety –
some solutions are more expensive in some countries
26Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
What makes climate action so affordable
• Proven, attractive and affordable low-carbon solutions exist are not
implemented at scale because of various barriers
• There is a lack of e.g.
1. information and awareness
2. level playing field between low- and high-carbon solutions
3. institutional capacity and good governance
4. financing
• Challenges tend to be larger in poorer countries
27Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
Why are we not doing it already?
• Barriers can be removed, as shown by countries in both the North and the South
• Success factors include e.g.
1. leadership and commitment at the highest possible level
2. introducing incentives for action and removing disincentives
3. public money to leverage private investment
4. informing and engaging stakeholders and citizens
5. good governance and building capacity
• Poor countries would benefit from international support
28Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
We can learn from successes in removing barriers
1. Scaling up just 17 proven low-carbon solutions can cut global emissions
significantly
2. Simply doing what some countries have already done would take us a long
way towards closing the emissions gap
3. Significant opportunities exist to cut emissions while actually saving money
4. Climate action can provide substantial social and ecological co-benefits
5. Attractive solutions are held back by various barriers
6. Barriers can be removed – as shown by leading countries
29Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
Summary
Thank you
sitra.fi/en
Facebook.com/SitraFund
Twitter @SitraFund
#GreenToScale
greentoscale.net

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Green to Scale at World Bank on 19th Nov 2015

  • 1. Green to Scale – Low-Carbon Success Stories to Inspire the World 1 #GreenToScale
  • 2. Why Green to Scale? 2Sitra • Mari Pantsar
  • 3. 3Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen The big picture
  • 4. Do we have technology to rapidly reduce emissions? How much will it cost? Are suggested solutions feasible in my country? Can it be done? 4Sitra • Mari Pantsar Understandable concerns slow down climate action
  • 5. How far can we go if proven low-carbon solutions already applied somewhere are adopted by comparable countries? 5Sitra • Mari Pantsar Green to Scale answers a simple question
  • 6. • Many studies before have looked at the potential of existing solutions • No studies have focused exclusively on scaling up concrete cases to the level achieved already in some countries 6Sitra • Mari Pantsar Have I heard this before?
  • 7. 7Sitra • Mari Pantsar Distinguished partners from 10 countries COPPE CEMDA WRI ECF UNEP DTU Sitra SEI Renmin Masdar EDRI IGES IFC
  • 8. 8Sitra • Mari Pantsar 1. A gift from the Parliament to 50-year-old Finland 2. An independent foresight agency and systemic change agent 3. Funded by returns on endowment capital and capital investments 4. Vision of Finland as a successful pioneer in sustainable well-being 5. Three themes, six focus areas and dozens of projects + 1 Building our future together 5 + 1 key Sitra facts Photograph: Erkki Laitila, HS/Lehtikuva 1967
  • 10. 10Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen Massive impact by just scaling up existing solutions
  • 11. 11Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen How much exactly is 12 Gt? 12 Gt 12 Gt is equal to a quarter of current global emissions or the emissions of China and Japan combined
  • 12. 12Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen Five solutions reach the gigatonne range
  • 13. 13Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen Cost savings possible, range in estimates wide
  • 14. 14Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen Proven solutions are affordable
  • 15. • Cost estimates do not include two important groups of benefits 1. Avoided climate impacts: cutting emissions slows down warming and reduces damages from climate impacts 2. Co-benefits: many low-carbon solutions have significant co-benefits, such as improved health, more jobs and better energy security • Factoring in full benefits would make the solutions even more attractive 15Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen Including all benefits makes action more attractive
  • 16. 17 proven low- carbon solutions 16Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
  • 17. 17 Solar water heating Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. v
  • 22. • The US is a world leader in some areas of climate action • Other countries could learn from the US in e.g. • improving the energy efficiency of industrial motors • reducing methane from oil and gas production • The US in turn could benefit from the successes of other countries, such as • solar power in Germany • cutting food waste in Denmark • improving appliance efficiency in Japan 22Sitra • Mari Pantsar What others can learn from the US – and vice versa
  • 23. What do the results mean? 23Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen
  • 24. How far can we get with proven solutions?
  • 25. • On balance, the results are likely to be conservative for several reasons: 1. only 17 solutions are analysed out of a universe of many more 2. solutions are applied only to the extent that some countries have already implemented them to date 3. no new technologies or policy innovations are assumed 4. some solutions could have a larger scope or scalability than studied 25Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen And even more can be done
  • 26. 1. Many solutions require large upfront investments, but save money over time – such as improving energy efficiency 2. The costs of many solutions have dropped dramatically over the past years, most notably solar power 3. Affordability was one criterion in selecting the solutions – including other solutions could raise the total costs 4. While global average costs tend to be affordable, there is large variety – some solutions are more expensive in some countries 26Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen What makes climate action so affordable
  • 27. • Proven, attractive and affordable low-carbon solutions exist are not implemented at scale because of various barriers • There is a lack of e.g. 1. information and awareness 2. level playing field between low- and high-carbon solutions 3. institutional capacity and good governance 4. financing • Challenges tend to be larger in poorer countries 27Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen Why are we not doing it already?
  • 28. • Barriers can be removed, as shown by countries in both the North and the South • Success factors include e.g. 1. leadership and commitment at the highest possible level 2. introducing incentives for action and removing disincentives 3. public money to leverage private investment 4. informing and engaging stakeholders and citizens 5. good governance and building capacity • Poor countries would benefit from international support 28Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen We can learn from successes in removing barriers
  • 29. 1. Scaling up just 17 proven low-carbon solutions can cut global emissions significantly 2. Simply doing what some countries have already done would take us a long way towards closing the emissions gap 3. Significant opportunities exist to cut emissions while actually saving money 4. Climate action can provide substantial social and ecological co-benefits 5. Attractive solutions are held back by various barriers 6. Barriers can be removed – as shown by leading countries 29Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen Summary