Impact of food security on political stability

1. Food Security & Political Stability:
Disentangling Causes & Consequences
Prof dr Ruerd Ruben
Impact Assessment for Food Security

2. Food & Nutrition Insecurity & Civil Conflict

3. Key dimensions of Food Security
Food & Nutrition
Security
Conflict

4. Food security risks

5. Changes in Poverty
Poverty in Fragile & non-
fragile states (1990-2025)
Share of Rural poverty
Strong decline in overall poverty;
Most structural poverty will become
concentrated in Fragile states
Chronic poverty remains
mainly a rural issue;
Urban settings face
inequality & undernutrition

6. Differences in socio-economic performance
More structural Poverty & Food Insecurity in (post)conflict
countries;associated with many other socio-economic problems.

7. Underinvestment in African Agriculture
Public Investments in Agriculture (10% target)
Agricultural growth rates (2003-09)
Small public investment
in agriculture (R&D and
rural infrastructure)
Limited growth rates of
agricultural output &
stagnating productivity

8. Unstable Food & Agri-commodity Prices
Strongly variable food
prices with shocks (‘food
spikes’) in 2008 & 2011
High food prices: trigger for
(urban) food riots , but only
rather loose association with
Arab Spring events

9. Foresight modelling & scenarios

10. Urbanization, Dietary Change & Food Import
Food import share (% GDP) in DCs
Agricultural trade balance LDCs
Dietary changes (1964-2030)

11. Correlation & Association ≠ Causality
Poverty & (local) Conflicts
GDP pc / GDP growth & Rule of Law (Rodrik)
Poverty
Political
Governance
Food
Security

12. Some (un)confirmed Hypotheses
 Food scarcity & migration
● Trigger for domestic (rural to urban) migration
● Not for international migration (driven by insecurity)
 Food inequality & corruption & crime (‘greed & grievance’)
● Food price subsidies  favouring urban middle class
● Land grabbing & water disputes  civil unrest
 Food shocks & human relations
● Natural (disasters)  demand for insurance
● Man-made (war)  trauma & reduced trust (‘food as weapon’)

13. Aid & Trade Policies for Socio-political Stability
 Mitigating conflicts
● Infrastructure (roads, irrigation) & cultivars (GMOs?)
● Rainfall insurance (price expectations crops, cattle)
 Enhancing exchange
● Post-harvest loss reduction (storage, transport)
● Regional trade arrangements
 Promoting interdependence
● Cooperative development
● Public-private partnerships & contracts

14. Thank you for
your attention!