Environmental megatrends
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Environmental megatrends, as described in more detail in the book Purpose+Profit (2017, Ter Weijde).
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Environmental megatrends
- 1. NON-CONFIDENTIAL AND ENTIRELY SHAREABLE Purpose+, Amstel95, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Environment
- 2. Visual 72: Economic growth has a dark side Marginal disutility Marginal utility 0 Economic growth Uneconomic growth Source: Herman Daly (2007), Ecological Economics and Sustainable Development, Selected Essays of Herman Daly Tipping point, optimal net utility Futility limit Increasing production,consumption
- 3. Visual 73: From empty world economics to full world economics World economy 1900 ~2 trillion USD GDP ~1.5B people World economy 2017 ~75 trillion USD GDP ~7.5 billion people * Note: 1900 numbers are Angus Maddison estimates, in 1990 International Geary-Kharami dollars Sources used: Angus Maddison, World Bank, Herman Daly From empty world economics... ...to full world economics
- 4. Visual 74: Economic growth seen as a shock to system earth 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 RealGWP,1990dollars,billions 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 1850 1881 1909 1940 1970 2001 RealGWP,1990dollars,billions 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 500 865 1230 1596 1961 RealGWP,1990dollars,billions 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 RealGWP,1990dollars,billions 10,000BC - 2014 Source: data estimates by Bradford DeLong Post WWII perspective... ...post industrial revolution... ...post Roman civilisation... ...and the post agricultural revolution perspective.
- 5. Visual 75: Global temperatures are up by 1C 0.99 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1880 1883 1886 1889 1892 1895 1898 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 TemperatureriseinC Source: NASA (August, 2017)
- 6. Visual 76: Warming effects can differ per region Source: NASA (August, 2017) 1900 1950 1990 2016
- 7. Visual 77: The potential tipping points impacting global warming Source: Lenton et al. (2007) Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system Melting Biome loss Circulation change Arctic sea-ice West Antarctic Ice Sheet Greenland ice sheet Himalayan glaciers Yedoma permafrost Boreal forest Cold water corals Boreal forest Marine biological carbon pump Tropical coral reefs SW North America El Nino Atlantic thermohaline circulation West African Monsoon Indian Summer Monsoon
- 8. Visual 78: CO2 levels in the atmosphere have steadily risen over time 408.84 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CO2,partspermillion Source: NOAA
- 9. Visual 79: Advanced economies are the major polluters today Source: World Bank 20.21 16.40 2.70 7.55 0 5 10 15 20 25 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 CO2,metrictonpercapita European Union United States China India
- 10. Visual 80: China is in the lead when it comes to electric vehicles 1,430 5,070 9,900 15,340 73,180 207,380 351,861 1,190 17,730 53,240 96,700 118,780 113,870 159,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Newlyregisteredelectricvehicles China U.S. Source: Statista
- 11. Visual 81: Global ice mass is falling rapidly -4500 -4000 -3500 -3000 -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 2002 2003 2003 2004 2005 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gigatonnesice Source: NASA (August, 2017), data from GRACE satellites -4500 -4000 -3500 -3000 -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gigatonesice Arctic, or North Pole... ...and Greenland
- 12. Visual 82: Some resources will be depleted within a generation 35 37 42 80 76 46 44 32 17 12 8 78 196 88 0 50 100 150 200 250 Coal Oil Gas Aluminium Phosphorus Tantalum Titanium Copper Silver Indium Antimony Indonesian rainforest Brazilian rainforest Coral reefs Source: BBC (2012), Global Resources Stock Check; Information is Beautiful Ecosystems Minerals Fossil fuels Note: assumed fixed % increase in usage per year
- 13. Visual 83: Our collective footprint is the size of ~1,5 earths Ecological footprint in number of earths needed to sustain lifestyle, top-10 countries Source: Global Footprint Network 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Luxembourg Qatar Australia Trinidad and Tobago Canada United States Kuwait Australia and New Zealand Mongolia Estonia Earths needed to sustain lifestyle Built-up Land Carbon Cropland Fishing Grounds Forest Products Grazing Land
- 14. Visual 84: The forests are becoming silent Spectrogram of Costa Rican rainforest, 2008 vs 2015 (red is more sound, blue is quiet) Source: CNN (2017), Listening for the amphibian apocalypse; Bryan Pijanowski, Purdue University -20 -60 dBFS -40 -30 -50 Frogs 7 1 5 3 Frequency/kHz 2008 2015
- 15. Visual 85: Globally, garbage piles are growing in size 169,119 738,958 254,389 437,545 173,545 1,566,286 441,840 1,865,379 354.81 728,392 369,320 1,742,417 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia and the Pacific Region Eastern and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa OECD Tonsofwasteperday 2012 2025E Source: World Bank
- 16. Visual 86: Plastics have become the ‘go to’ material in just ~60 years 322 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1950 1976 1989 2002 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Produtionofplasticsworldwide,inmillionmetrictons Source: PlasticsEurope (PEMRG), 2016
- 17. For more information • Rens ter Weijde • Mail: rens@purposeplus.com • LinkedIn:www.linkedin.com/in/rensterweijde