Main trends related to technology, as described in more detail in the book Purpose+Profit (2017, Ter Weijde). Data for most trends are openly accessible/downloadable on www.purposeplus.com/world.

1. NON-CONFIDENTIAL AND ENTIRELY SHAREABLE
Purpose+, Amstel95, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Technology

2. Visual 59: Technology will shape the 21st century in new ways
Source: Richard Lipsey, Kenneth Carlaw, Clifford Bekhar; Fit for The Future, PwC, (2014), Purpose+ team, Gareth
Morgan (Images of Organisations, 1986)
16th & 17th century 18th century 19th century 20th century 21st century
?
Printing Steam engine
Factories
Internal
combustion
Iron steamship
Electricity
Railway
Biotechnology
Internet
Lean production
Computer
Mass production
Aeroplane
Automobile
Nanotechnology
Quantum
computing
3D printing
Interconnectivity
Neural implants
Artifical IQ
Health tech
Critical inventions over time, including the 21st
century

3. Visual 60: China is leading the dance when it comes to robotization
46,000
6,000
25,000
46,000
160,000
0
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40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
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United States India Germany South Korea China
Estimatedannualshipmentsofmultipurposeindustrialrobots
2014 2015 2016 2019F
Sources: International Federation of Robotics (2016)

4. Visual 61: GDP per capita and household incomes have de-coupled
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Relativeincreaseovertime,1984=100
Real GDP per capita, 1984 = 100 Real median household income, 1984 = 100
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank, dataset August 2017

5. Visual 62: Corporate profits are on the rise
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Quarterlyprofits,inbillionsofUSD
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank, dataset August 2017
Note: U.S. data

6. Visual 63: More recent recessions see a slower recovery of jobs
Source: Federal Reserve Bank, author analysis, based on work by www.calculatedriskblog.com
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Joblosses/gains,non-farmjobs,permonth,U.S.
Time in months
1945 recession, 1944 = 0 1953-1954 recession, 1953 = 0 1957-1958 recession, 1957 = 0
1981-1982 recession, 1981 = 0 2001 recession, 2001 = 0 2007-2009 recession, 2007 = 0
* X = 0 means December of previous year is set to 0, e.g. December 1943 for 1944

7. Visual 64: The smile represents the new ‘high value’ areas
Source: original ‘smile curve’ from Stan Shih (Founder of Acer)
Value add
Value chain
‘Inputs’
R&D, Design,Branding
‘Markets’
Sales,Advertising,
After-sales service
Industrial era
Today
‘Manufacturing’

8. Sources: OECD Insights – Economic Globalisation: Origins and Consequences; McKinsey, No Ordinary Disruption; The Zero
Marginal Cost Society (Jeremy Rifkin, 2014); Rise of the Robots (Martin Ford, 2015)
Visual 65: Time to reach 50M users has dramatically shortened
38
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3
1 0.75
0
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Radio TV Ipod Internet Facebook Twitter
Timeinyears

9. Visual 66: ‘Winner takes all’ models increasingly influence markets
77%
23% Google &
Facebook
All others
43%
56%
Amazon
All others
75%
25%
Uber
Lyft
Online advertising, U.S.
Online B2C sales, U.S.
Ride-sharing, U.S.
72%
28%
Alibaba, Baidu,
Tencent
All others
Online advertising, China
Online B2C sales, China
Ride-sharing, China
57%
43% Alibaba
All others
99%
1%
Didi
Others
Sources: Statista, Business Insider, South China Morning Post

10. Visual 67: Cryptocurrencies are becoming accepted payments
$269,953
$541,722,554
0
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USDperday
Total value in USD of trading volume on major bitcoin exchanges,per day
Sources: www.blockchain.info

11. Visual 68: The value of cryptocurrency coins has yet to stabilize
$13.40
$176.50
$4,219.04
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ValueinUSD
Average market price per bitcoin across major bitcoin exchanges
Sources: www.blockchain.info

12. Visual 69: Artificial intelligence represents major business opportunity
1,378.19 2,420.36
4,065.99
6,629.44
10,529
16,241.52
24,161.77
34,381.76
46,519.61
59,748.54
0
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2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
ExpectedrevenuesinAImarket,USD,inmillions
Sources: forecast by Tractica, Statista

13. Visual 70: AI will grow to outsmart humans on every dimension
Source: Superintelligence, Nick Bostrom (2014); Whole Brain Emulation, Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)
Speed of
computing
elements
Speed of
communication
Number of
computational
elements
Storage capacity
Reliability
Human level intelligence... ...computing power today...
Today’s processors operate at over
~3GHz, already seven orders of
magnitude larger. Parallel ’neural network’
computation is on the rise.
Computers can theoretically send signals
through photons – reaching the speed of
light: 300.000.000m/sec.
Computer hardware is indefinitely
scalable. Supercomputers can be
warehouse-sized, and are already linked
to each other through internet.
Computer RAM can theoretically expand
indefinitely, as well as the long term
storage capacity.
Biological neurons operate at a peak
speed of only ~200Hz; but is
compensated by massive parallelization
and energy efficiency of operations.
Biological axons can achieve speeds
of 120m/sec through pathways in the
human body.
Humans brains are limited by cranial
volume and have ~100 billion
neurons. But: humans could
theoretically be linked to each other.
Human beings can hold no more than 4-
5 chunks of information in their working
memory. Size of long term memory is
estimated to be 10^15 bits*.
Biological neurons are not very reliable
when tired. Brains decay after a few
decades. Restoring brain tissue is
notoriously hard, or even impossible.
Transistors are more reliable than
neurons, can be replaced easily and
reverse engineered with similar content as
previous transistors when damaged.
* Based on a study by Landauer (1986); assumption is ~1 bit per synapse in the brain. Note that the total storage capacity
calculated is less than is currently stored on a smartphone.
** For the long term. Short-term, human brains are still superior to computers in at least some aspects.
...and expected winner**

14. Visual 71: The 21st century may see the rise of ‘superintelligence’
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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Estimatedcomputingpower,calculationspersecondper
1000USD
One human brain
All human brains
Mouse brain
Insect brain
Computing power
Source: Ray Kurzweill, www.kurzweilai.net, The Singularity is Near (2005)

15. For more information
• Rens ter Weijde
• Mail: rens@purposeplus.com
• LinkedIn:www.linkedin.com/in/rensterweijde